Premier League Preview

I have a mathematical ranking system devised for the English Premier League. The system is based solely on results so far in the English Premier League and it can both rank the teams and give predictions for future games. The system takes into account home and away advantages and gives each team an offensive and defensive rating that is used to determine the expected number of goals scored for both teams in the match. Those of you more interested in the statistical side of things may be interested to note that the scores follow a Poisson Distribution with mean based on the factors listed above.
For now, the ratings can be used for the most interesting thing, predicting match results! I will give the five most likely match outcomes along with the probability of win, draw, or loss for each team. As always, home team listed first! For a more comprehensive preview of this weekend’s action, check this post.

Chelsea v Manchester City
Most Likely Outcomes:
Chelsea 2-0 Manchester City, 11.14%
Chelsea 3-0 Manchester City, 10.99%
Chelsea 4-0 Manchester City, 8.13%
Chelsea 2-1 Manchester City, 7.93%
Chelsea 3-1 Manchester City, 7.83%

Result Probabilities:
Chelsea Win: 82.42%
Draw: 11.49%
Manchester City Win: 6.09%

Birmingham v Wigan
Most Likely Outcomes:
Birmingham 1-0 Wigan, 17.68%
Birmingham 2-0 Wigan, 16.52%
Birmingham 3-0 Wigan, 10.29%
Birmingham 0-0 Wigan, 9.46%
Birmingham 1-0 Wigan, 8.65%

Result Probabilities:
Birmingham Win: 70.82%
Draw: 20.30%
Wigan Win: 8.88%

Bolton v Wolverhampton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Bolton 1-0 Wolverhampton, 16.53%
Bolton 2-0 Wolverhampton, 11.98%
Bolton 1-1 Wolverhampton, 11.93%
Bolton 0-0 Wolverhampton, 11.40%
Bolton 2-1 Wolverhampton, 8.65%

Result Probabilities:
Bolton Win: 54.57%
Draw: 26.83%
Wolverhampton Win: 18.60%

Burnley v Portsmouth
Most Likely Outcomes:
Burnley 1-0 Portsmouth, 11.71%
Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth, 11.65%
Burnley 2-0 Portsmouth, 9.67%
Burnley 2-1 Portsmouth, 9.62%
Burnley 0-0 Portsmouth, 7.08%

Result Probabilities:
Burnley Win: 52.77%
Draw: 24.49%
Portsmouth Win: 22.74%

Stoke City v Arsenal
Most Likely Outcomes:
Stoke City 1-1 Arsenal, 12.73%
Stoke City 0-1 Arsenal, 12.12%
Stoke City 1-0 Arsenal, 9.19%
Stoke City 1-2 Arsenal, 8.83%
Stoke City 0-0 Arsenal, 8.75%

Result Probabilities:
Stoke City Win: 28.48%
Draw: 26.94%
Arsenal Win: 44.58%

Tottenham v Everton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Tottenham 2-0 Everton, 11.27%
Tottenham 2-1 Everton, 9.38%
Tottenham 3-0 Everton, 9.20%
Tottenham 1-0 Everton, 9.20%
Tottenham 3-1 Everton, 7.66%

Result Probabilities:
Tottenham Win: 72.91%
Draw: 16.32%
Everton Win: 10.77%

Liverpool v Blackburn
Most Likely Outcomes:
Liverpool 2-0 Blackburn, 14.27%
Liverpool 3-0 Blackburn, 12.98%
Liverpool 1-0 Blackburn, 10.46%
Liverpool 4-0 Blackburn, 8.86%
Liverpool 2-1 Blackburn, 7.60%

Result Probabilities:
Liverpool Win: 83.25%
Draw: 11.79%
Blackburn Win: 4.96%

Sunderland v Fulham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Sunderland 1-1 Fulham, 13.13%
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham, 12.62%
Sunderland 0-1 Fulham, 10.41%
Sunderland 0-0 Fulham, 10.00%
Sunderland 2-1 Fulham, 8.29%

Result Probabilities:
Sunderland Win: 41.38%
Draw: 28.13%
Fulham Win: 30.50%

Here is what the top of the table would look like if these results hold:

Team	W	D	L	GD	Pts
Chelsea	20	4	4	43	64
Manchester United	19	3	6	42	60
Arsenal	17	5	6	33	56
Tottenham Hotspur	14	7	7	24	49
Liverpool	14	6	8	18	48
Manchester City	12	10	5	13	46
Aston Villa	12	9	5	16	45

The only change is Liverpool taking over Manchester City for the 5th spot, just a point out of the Champions League qualifying spot. However, both Manchester City and Aston Villa will have a game in hand.