Earlier this week, Baseball Prospectus (BP) published their projected standings for the 2010 MLB season. I for one am not a big fan of statistics, I like to rely on the eye test to determine if a player or team is any good. The only downside of this method is that I have to wait until the season starts. So I'll dab into the statistics world every once in a while to get a baseball fix over the winter months. I usually look at the projected standings that Baseball Prospectus puts out, using PECOTA to project players' performances, and I usually come away unimpressed and sometimes angry with their projections. Well talking with resident stat expert, Tom Nielsen, I found out that PECOTA generally under-estimates projections, which makes sense. I still thought it'd be interesting to look at two teams and two divisions that have been projected to do poorly.
Seattle Mariners: Projected 77-85, last in the AL West. Now going into this season, the Mariners are going to be a sexy pick to win their division and possibly the World Series because of the additions they made to their club this off-season. Well here is an instance where I agree with BP, I just don't see the hype that this Mariners team is carrying. Yes they have speed at the top with Ichiro and Chone Figgins, and they have a dynamic 1-2 pitching punch with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but what do they have behind those guys? Sure Ichiro and Figgins might get on base and steal a lot of bases, but who is their behind them to drive them in? A middle of the order that features what is likely to be Ken Griffey Jr., Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman isn't one that strikes a ton of fear into opposing pitchers. The rotation has potential behind Hernandez and Lee but the offense just doesn't look to be good enough to compete.
San Francisco Giants: Projected 82-80, fourth in NL West. Now this is where I usually get angry with BP, I just don't see how the Giants can only win 82 games this season let alone finish fourth in their division. Their rotation is among the best in the majors anchored by back-to-back defending Cy Young award winner, Tim Lincecum. It has been a strength of theirs for a few years now, the question mark that always came with the Giants, was whether or not their offense could score enough runs. Well I think they've made the right moves this season to score runs to compliment the pitching that is usually electric. I like the Aubrey Huff move as well as the Mark DeRosa move, and Pablo Sandoval is a potential star. This team is constructed like a prototypical NL team, pitching and timely hitting. I really like the Giants this season, apparently the statistics don't agree with me.
NL Central: The NL Central is one division that BP doesn't think is going to do very well and they have good reason to think that. With exception the Pirates (because they're just awful), I think every one of these teams could pull out at least 80 wins. Call me optimistic but those five teams should provide an entertaining race all season long.
AL Central: The AL Central is also a division not getting a lot of love from BP, and again there isn't much to say they deserve it. The Twins are likely the favorite to win the division but the Tigers and White Sox will be right there with them again this season. This is a division that has needed game 163 two years in a row to determine its champion. I see all three of these teams pushing 85-90 wins this season and could very easily need another game 163 to determine its champ.
Well there was a little sneak peak at the upcoming baseball season, I for one can't wait till Pitchers and Catchers report. Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, and Co. are due to Arizona in 14 days, can you feel it?
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