Here are some hard-hitting facts.
The Six-Inning Streak
Ryan Dempster has gone exactly 6.0 innings in every one of his five starts in 2009. It is tied for the fifth longest streak of starts going exactly 6.0 innings since 1954. It is also tied for the longest streak of starts going exactly 6.0 innings to start the season since 1954. Dempster is joined by Randy Wolf (2007) and Scott Bankhead (1988) on this notable list. In these starts, Dempster is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 25 K, 14 BB in, you guessed it, 30 IP. His average Game Score has been 48. Here are his game-by-game lines:
April 7, at Houston: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 3 BB, Game Score 54, ND
April 12, at Milwaukee: 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 3 BB, Game Score 47, W
April 18, vs St. Louis: 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 4 BB, Game Score 48, ND
April 24, at St. Louis: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 6 K, 1 BB, Game Score 51, ND
April 29, at Arizona: 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 K, 3 BB, Game Score 41, L
It is up for debate how good this streak really is. It has been emphatically pointed out to me that having a pitcher go six innings repeatedly is not good, as it means he's not doing great. This is true as evidenced by the two quality starts out of the five and the 2-3 Cubs record in the starts. Still, it is a fun streak to follow. One more 6 inning game and Dempster will tie for the record!
Just Missing the Cycle
In honor of the three cycles in 5 games achieved by Orlando Hudson, Ian Kinsler, and Jason Kubel, here are some cycle facts. In the past 55 years, there have been 139 cycles hit. In the past 3 months of baseball play, there have been 7. Obviously, the most common type of "just missing the cycle" is hitting a 1B, 2B, and HR but not getting the 3B. The two players who have done this the most since 1954 are Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, who have each done it 35 times. I will not say what those two players have in common, but you can fill in the blank yourself. Rounding out the top six are Billy Williams (32), Juan Gonzalez (32), Willie Mays (29), and Hank Aaron (29).
The only pitcher to ever hit for the cycle was Jimmy Ryan, who did it on July 28, 1888. However, Ryan was also an outfielder in that game, and it is not even clear how long he really pitched in that game. Since 1954, Brooklyn Dodgers pitcher Don Newcombe came a triple away from hitting for the cycle five times.
Perhaps the toughest type of cycle to just miss is getting a 2B, 3B, and HR with no 1B, and no player has done that more than 3 times. Getting everything except for the HR is also somewhat common, and Wade Boggs and Paul Molitor have both done it 13 times.
Extra Inning Run Sprees
In a game rightly overshadowed by the incredible Bulls-Celtics Game 6, the Chicago Cubs were defeated by the Florida Marlins 8-2 in 10 innings. This is notable because the Cubs lost by 6 runs...in extra innings. This is only the 87th time in Major League history that a team has won by 6 or more runs in extra innings (OK not so notable but I thought it was 8 runs at first and that would have been only the 12th time ever). The largest margin of victory in an extra innings game was 12, when the Texas Rangers defeated the Oakland Athletics 16-4 on July 4, 1983. This was done in 13 innings by virtue of 12 runs on 8 hits.
Some other Random Facts
(Note that all data is since 1954 because the Play Index only goes that far)
-The career leader for most multi-triple games is Willie Mays, who had 10.
-The record for most total bases by a team in a single game is 58, set by the Montreal Expos when they beat the Atlanta Braves 19-0 on July 30, 1978. The Cleveland Indians got 50 when they routed the Yankees 22-4 earlier this year, good for seventh all-time.
-The lowest Game Score of all time belongs to Mike Oquist of the Oakland A's, who went 5 IP, 16 H, 14 ER, 3 BB, 3 K in a 14-1 loss to the Yankees on August 3, 1998.
-On this date in baseball history, on May 1, 1991, Rickey Henderson stole his 939th career base, passing Lou Brock for number one all time. Later that night, Nolan Ryan threw his seventh and final no hitter in a 3-0 victory for the Rangers over the Blue Jays.
-Ryan Theriot's 6th inning grand slam on May 1 was his first home run since April 15, 2008 (157 games and 617 AB). It also set his career high for single-game RBI in one swing.
Random Baseball Fact of the Day: Greg Maddux is the career leader in games pitched where he goes exactly 6.0 innings. He has done so in 132 of his 740 career starts, good for 17.8%. For contrast, Dempster has gone exactly 6.0 innings in 46 of his 200 starts, good for 23%.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
What's Wrong with Chicago Baseball?
Before this season began, Chicagoans had some high expectations for their baseball teams. The Cubs were considered a massive favorite in the NL Central, and the White Sox were considered to have just as much of a chance as any to win the AL Central. Now, as April is ending, the Cubs stand at 10-10 (awaiting the result of tonight's game, and the Sox are 11-10. The White Sox find themselves .5 games back of division-leading Kansas City, while the Cubs are 4 games adrift of 1st in the central, behind the division leader Cardinals, who are playing out of their mind. Both the Cubs and Sox have a negative run differential, and both teams seem to be playing without a certain level of confidence. This is odd in both cases, as Ozzie Guillen has always tried to promote his win or die trying, nothing to lose, leave everything on the field attitude, and the Cubs simply should be playing with confidence because they're the most talented team in the division. Currently, the Cubs are getting very good production from most of their hitters, with Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome leading the way. They are not, however, getting anything from Derrek Lee, who may just be getting too old to be an everyday player, Milton Bradley, who is already showing signs that he is having trouble adjusting, and Geovany Soto, who may be experiencing a "sophomore slump". These three are batting .200, .097, and .111, respectively, going into tonight's game. They also had a combined 2 HR and 13 RBI prior to tonight's game. The Cubs' pitching, as a whole, has been quite sub-par. Ted Lilly has their lowest SP ERA, at 3.80. Zambrano's is 4.64 and Dempster's is 5.40. As far as Zambrano's ERA goes, its safe to say that eventually it will drop. He's been generally getting rather unlucky this year, and has proven in years past to be a better pitcher than a 4.64 ERA. Ryan Dempster, however, is a little more concerning. He has simply pitched very poorly, and unlike Zambrano, he is not a proven horse in the rotation. While I am not saying that last season was a fluke for Dempster, I don't think that it was entirely representative of his abilities as a starting pitcher, in that he did better than he is capable of. At the end of the day, the Cubs are still the favorite in the NL central, especially with the Cardinals not having Chris Carpenter for several months. I don't see them keeping up this pace, and the Cubs definitely have the talent to win over a 162 game season.
The White Sox, at 11-10, are not so far adrift of their preseason expectations, as they were not considered such a huge favorite in their division. They are, however, still playing significantly below their potential. Thus far, they've been given great production from Mark Buehrle and John Danks, who both have ERAs that are 3.00 or less. Bartolo Colon has, at times, looked like his old self, and at other times, looked like Carlos Silva, and his current ERA of 4.15 reflects that. A major concern for Sox fans up to this point must be Gavin Floyd. Floyd, who had a breakout season last year, currently has a 5.52 ERA and has looked atrocious. His WHIP of 1.77 is reminiscent of Jeff Weaver's Seattle Mariners days, and he is extremely fortunate to have a 2-2 record. On the offensive side of the ball, Carlos Quentin is showing that last season's power surge was no fluke, as he is leading the AL with 8 HR already. His .253 average is significantly lower than last season's, but if he is able to have another 30+ HR season, that should be rather immaterial. Paul Konerko is having a resurgent season, with 3 HR and 18 RBIs to go along with his .333 average so far, and they are also getting great production out of Jermaine Dye. Jim Thome and Alexei Ramirez, on the other hand, have both largely disappointed this season. Alexei may be one of the biggest disappointments in baseball thus far, given his huge expectations. He is batting .214 with 1 HR and 9 RBIs, although he does have 5 SB so far. The Sox also don't have too much reason for concern though, as they're playing in a pretty weak division and have some players that have had devastatingly slow starts. Another encouraging thing for the Sox is the fact that no one has really had a beastly start to the season. This would suggest that the team is not playing over their potential, considering, with the exception of Konerko's start, everyone appears to be playing at or below potential, a good sign for things to come.
Other Assorted Sports Notes
Bulls-Celtics, Game 6
As we speak, the Bulls are blowing yet another game to the Boston Irishmen, who are just incredibly lucky to be playing a team that doesn't know how to finish a game. If nothing else, the Bulls have competed with the Celtics the entire series, and while one could make the argument that the Celtics are a much worse team without KG, its also important to remember how much of a shmuck KG is. Overall, while this series will ultimately be remembered for the Bulls being so bad in the last 4 minutes of the game, its nonetheless encouraging that they're competing so well against one of the NBA's elite teams.
Matt Garza
Matt Garza pitched the game of his life tonight against the hottest team in baseball. The Red Sox were 10-1 in their last 11 games going in to tonight's game, and Garza's line was as follows- 7 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 10 K, 0 R. Here's to the most inconsistent pitcher in all of baseball (seriously, look at his start log for last year, he either threw 8 scoreless or 2 IP 10 ER every start.)
European Football Musings
I was extremely disappointed in European Football the other day. I'm going to be in Rome during the Champion's League Final, and I was toying with the notion of possibly going to the game to cheer on the Mighty Reds take on presumably Barcelona. However, upon going onto some online ticket brokers, the cheapest available tickets were about ₤ 1400. Yes, one thousand, four hundred British pounds. For those unfamiliar with the exchange rate, that's over $2,000. For a single ticket. Needless to say, I'll not be in attendance.
Franck Ribery has stated his displeasure at Bayern Munich's potential failure to make the Champions League next season, and went so far as to say that it will be very difficult for him to stay with Bayern if they fail to qualify for the CL. Keep your eye on this story, as every club in Europe would be delighted to have Ribery's services.
Inter Milan looks like they want to give away the league title to their arch-rival, AC Milan. They've lost 7 points to AC in the last 3 games, and now hold a 7 point lead with 5 games to play.
Zack Greinke
Our favorite Kansas City Royal not named Joakim Soria finally gave up an earned run. SI did a phenomenal article on him in their latest issue, I definitely suggest taking a look.
Here's my obligatory shoutout to the Blackhawks. By default, Go Blackhawks, you're the closest NHL team to my house, so I'll not root against you.
The White Sox, at 11-10, are not so far adrift of their preseason expectations, as they were not considered such a huge favorite in their division. They are, however, still playing significantly below their potential. Thus far, they've been given great production from Mark Buehrle and John Danks, who both have ERAs that are 3.00 or less. Bartolo Colon has, at times, looked like his old self, and at other times, looked like Carlos Silva, and his current ERA of 4.15 reflects that. A major concern for Sox fans up to this point must be Gavin Floyd. Floyd, who had a breakout season last year, currently has a 5.52 ERA and has looked atrocious. His WHIP of 1.77 is reminiscent of Jeff Weaver's Seattle Mariners days, and he is extremely fortunate to have a 2-2 record. On the offensive side of the ball, Carlos Quentin is showing that last season's power surge was no fluke, as he is leading the AL with 8 HR already. His .253 average is significantly lower than last season's, but if he is able to have another 30+ HR season, that should be rather immaterial. Paul Konerko is having a resurgent season, with 3 HR and 18 RBIs to go along with his .333 average so far, and they are also getting great production out of Jermaine Dye. Jim Thome and Alexei Ramirez, on the other hand, have both largely disappointed this season. Alexei may be one of the biggest disappointments in baseball thus far, given his huge expectations. He is batting .214 with 1 HR and 9 RBIs, although he does have 5 SB so far. The Sox also don't have too much reason for concern though, as they're playing in a pretty weak division and have some players that have had devastatingly slow starts. Another encouraging thing for the Sox is the fact that no one has really had a beastly start to the season. This would suggest that the team is not playing over their potential, considering, with the exception of Konerko's start, everyone appears to be playing at or below potential, a good sign for things to come.
Other Assorted Sports Notes
Bulls-Celtics, Game 6
As we speak, the Bulls are blowing yet another game to the Boston Irishmen, who are just incredibly lucky to be playing a team that doesn't know how to finish a game. If nothing else, the Bulls have competed with the Celtics the entire series, and while one could make the argument that the Celtics are a much worse team without KG, its also important to remember how much of a shmuck KG is. Overall, while this series will ultimately be remembered for the Bulls being so bad in the last 4 minutes of the game, its nonetheless encouraging that they're competing so well against one of the NBA's elite teams.
Matt Garza
Matt Garza pitched the game of his life tonight against the hottest team in baseball. The Red Sox were 10-1 in their last 11 games going in to tonight's game, and Garza's line was as follows- 7 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 10 K, 0 R. Here's to the most inconsistent pitcher in all of baseball (seriously, look at his start log for last year, he either threw 8 scoreless or 2 IP 10 ER every start.)
European Football Musings
I was extremely disappointed in European Football the other day. I'm going to be in Rome during the Champion's League Final, and I was toying with the notion of possibly going to the game to cheer on the Mighty Reds take on presumably Barcelona. However, upon going onto some online ticket brokers, the cheapest available tickets were about ₤ 1400. Yes, one thousand, four hundred British pounds. For those unfamiliar with the exchange rate, that's over $2,000. For a single ticket. Needless to say, I'll not be in attendance.
Franck Ribery has stated his displeasure at Bayern Munich's potential failure to make the Champions League next season, and went so far as to say that it will be very difficult for him to stay with Bayern if they fail to qualify for the CL. Keep your eye on this story, as every club in Europe would be delighted to have Ribery's services.
Inter Milan looks like they want to give away the league title to their arch-rival, AC Milan. They've lost 7 points to AC in the last 3 games, and now hold a 7 point lead with 5 games to play.
Zack Greinke
Our favorite Kansas City Royal not named Joakim Soria finally gave up an earned run. SI did a phenomenal article on him in their latest issue, I definitely suggest taking a look.
Here's my obligatory shoutout to the Blackhawks. By default, Go Blackhawks, you're the closest NHL team to my house, so I'll not root against you.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
NBA Playoff Rant
Alright, this will be a short post but I just need to get this out there. NBA Officials cannot just change the way the game is officiated in the last 3 minutes and in overtimes of playoff games. This isn't just because Rajon Rondo got away with committing battery on Brad Miller last night, this is also a matter of keeping the integrity of a game. There are rules to the game and if players don't follow those rules, the officials are supposed to be there and call them on it. The time of the game shouldn't matter when a referee calls a foul. Also what is not even being talked about is that if referees just swallow their whistles down the stretch of games, it could lead to serious problems for the NBA with players fighting or retaliating when there is a hard foul on them. That's a problem for a league that is still trying to fix its image since the Pacers-Pistons brawl a few years ago. If the rule is in place (which in the case of Rondo, that was an obvious flagrant foul), it should be called no matter the time of the game. If you're not going to call a foul late then you might as well not call it at all, consistency is what I think all fans ask for, if you're going to make bad calls, that's fine, just make sure it is consistent for both teams. Referees already have a bad name since the Tim Donaghy gambling case and they need to start showing integrity when officiating games.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Summary of Articles on Statistics in Sports
I own a book called Anthology of Statistics in Sports, edited by Jim Albert, Jay Bennett, and James J. Cochran. It contains 44 statistical articles on football, baseball, basketball, hockey, and other miscellaneous sports. Most of the statistics involved in these articles is far over my head, so I will simply summarize some of the more interesting findings in the books. When possible, I will provide a link to the article itself.
On the Probability of Winning a Football Game
by Hal Stern, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Harvard
Stern examines methods that can be used to predict the outcome of a NFL football game. One method is based on the point spread. It was found that the true margin of victory for a favored team is a normal random variable with mean at the point spread and standard deviation of 13.86. So, one can approximate the probability of the favored (or underdog) team winning a particular game based on the point spread. Below is a table of various point spreads and probabilities of favored team winning:
These values are also useful retrospectively, as one can go back and look at point spreads for an entire season and see what the probability of a team winning their division or making the playoffs. Stern did this with the 1984 NFL season, simulating it 10,000 times based on the probabilities given by the point spreads. It proved effective, as the team with highest probability of winning their division did so in five out of six divisions. The New York Giants made the playoffs despite only having a 0.2291 probability of doing so. In 12% of the simulations, the San Francisco 49ers did not make the playoffs, even though they won the Super Bowl in real life.
Article appeared in The American Statistician, August 1991
Did Shoeless Joe Jackson Throw the 1919 World Series?
By Jay Bennett
In 1919 World Series, the Cincinnati Reds upset the favored Chicago White Sox 5-3 in a best of nine series. A year later, Joe Jackson and seven other "Black Sox" were banned from baseball forever for throwing the series, even though they were all tried and found innocent in court. Joe Jackson had a .356 lifetime average at the time, and Bennett looks to examine whether or not Shoeless Joe played below his ability in the Series, to see if he was knowingly trying to throw the games. Jackson hit .375 in the Series, while hitting .357 with runners in scoring position and .400 with two outs and runners in scoring position, so even just on the surface it appears he played to his full ability.
Bennett also looks at a statistic, PWA (Player Win Average), which is virtually identical to the Win Percentage Added discussed in this post. It simply measures how much the probability of a team winning increased due to the performance of a particular player. A related statistic is PGP, which more accurately measures the effect of a player on victory or defeat. A player has a PGP value for each game, and when they were averaged over the entire 1919 World Series, Jackson's came out to be not only the third best on his team, but the seventh best in the entire World Series, and he had the most positive impact of all hitters in the Series. All other "Black Sox" had negative impacts on their team in the Series. It appears that Joe Jackson played to his full potential in the Series, and did not make an attempt to throw it. However, it is still possible that he bet on the Series but could not bring himself to actively try to lose it. Whatever the case, it is an absolute shame that Joe Jackson's career was cut so short by this scandal.
Article appeared in The American Statistician, 1993.
Drive for Show and Putt for Dough
by Scott M. Berry
Berry, an avid golfer, examines what type of shots one must excel at to be a great golfer. He looks only at those at the highest level of golf, the ones on the United States Professional Golfer's Association Tour (PGA Tour). Unfortunately much of the statistics in this article fly over my head like a pop culture reference, but the conclusion is simple enough: "You drive for dough and putt for more dough!" It appears that putting and overall score are correlated most strongly in a group of variables such as distance on drive, driving accuracy, putting, chipping, and iron play. Iron play appears to be second most important. Still, driving is very important, as evidenced by the fact that the PGA Tour ranks golfers in driving distance and accuracy, and they are the most popular rankings.
Article appeared in Chance, 1999.
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The longest streak of games with a balk is 6, set by Dave Stewart at the beginning of the 1988 season. He totaled 11 balks in the span. This came after Major League Baseball declared they would be watching balks closely in the 1988 season. Thus, four of the seven longest "balk streaks" involve the beginning of the 1988 season. There were 924 balks in the majors in 1988, up from only 356 in 1987.
On the Probability of Winning a Football Game
by Hal Stern, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Harvard
Stern examines methods that can be used to predict the outcome of a NFL football game. One method is based on the point spread. It was found that the true margin of victory for a favored team is a normal random variable with mean at the point spread and standard deviation of 13.86. So, one can approximate the probability of the favored (or underdog) team winning a particular game based on the point spread. Below is a table of various point spreads and probabilities of favored team winning:
| Spread | P(Favored Wins) | Spread | P(Favored Wins) |
| 0 | 0.5000 | 11 | 0.7852 |
| 1 | 0.5279 | 12 | 0.8078 |
| 2 | 0.5557 | 13 | 0.8264 |
| 3 | 0.5871 | 14 | 0.8438 |
| 4 | 0.6141 | 15 | 0.8599 |
| 5 | 0.6406 | 16 | 0.8749 |
| 6 | 0.6664 | 17 | 0.8907 |
| 7 | 0.6950 | 20 | 0.9251 |
| 8 | 0.7190 | 25 | 0.9641 |
| 9 | 0.7422 | 30 | 0.9846 |
| 10 | 0.7642 | 35 | 0.9943 |
These values are also useful retrospectively, as one can go back and look at point spreads for an entire season and see what the probability of a team winning their division or making the playoffs. Stern did this with the 1984 NFL season, simulating it 10,000 times based on the probabilities given by the point spreads. It proved effective, as the team with highest probability of winning their division did so in five out of six divisions. The New York Giants made the playoffs despite only having a 0.2291 probability of doing so. In 12% of the simulations, the San Francisco 49ers did not make the playoffs, even though they won the Super Bowl in real life.
Article appeared in The American Statistician, August 1991
Did Shoeless Joe Jackson Throw the 1919 World Series?
By Jay Bennett
In 1919 World Series, the Cincinnati Reds upset the favored Chicago White Sox 5-3 in a best of nine series. A year later, Joe Jackson and seven other "Black Sox" were banned from baseball forever for throwing the series, even though they were all tried and found innocent in court. Joe Jackson had a .356 lifetime average at the time, and Bennett looks to examine whether or not Shoeless Joe played below his ability in the Series, to see if he was knowingly trying to throw the games. Jackson hit .375 in the Series, while hitting .357 with runners in scoring position and .400 with two outs and runners in scoring position, so even just on the surface it appears he played to his full ability.
Bennett also looks at a statistic, PWA (Player Win Average), which is virtually identical to the Win Percentage Added discussed in this post. It simply measures how much the probability of a team winning increased due to the performance of a particular player. A related statistic is PGP, which more accurately measures the effect of a player on victory or defeat. A player has a PGP value for each game, and when they were averaged over the entire 1919 World Series, Jackson's came out to be not only the third best on his team, but the seventh best in the entire World Series, and he had the most positive impact of all hitters in the Series. All other "Black Sox" had negative impacts on their team in the Series. It appears that Joe Jackson played to his full potential in the Series, and did not make an attempt to throw it. However, it is still possible that he bet on the Series but could not bring himself to actively try to lose it. Whatever the case, it is an absolute shame that Joe Jackson's career was cut so short by this scandal.
Article appeared in The American Statistician, 1993.
Drive for Show and Putt for Dough
by Scott M. Berry
Berry, an avid golfer, examines what type of shots one must excel at to be a great golfer. He looks only at those at the highest level of golf, the ones on the United States Professional Golfer's Association Tour (PGA Tour). Unfortunately much of the statistics in this article fly over my head like a pop culture reference, but the conclusion is simple enough: "You drive for dough and putt for more dough!" It appears that putting and overall score are correlated most strongly in a group of variables such as distance on drive, driving accuracy, putting, chipping, and iron play. Iron play appears to be second most important. Still, driving is very important, as evidenced by the fact that the PGA Tour ranks golfers in driving distance and accuracy, and they are the most popular rankings.
Article appeared in Chance, 1999.
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The longest streak of games with a balk is 6, set by Dave Stewart at the beginning of the 1988 season. He totaled 11 balks in the span. This came after Major League Baseball declared they would be watching balks closely in the 1988 season. Thus, four of the seven longest "balk streaks" involve the beginning of the 1988 season. There were 924 balks in the majors in 1988, up from only 356 in 1987.
Update from Events Around the World of Sports
Yu Darvish
So far this season in Japan, Yu Darvish is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA. His WHIP is .74, and he has 29 K's in 34 innings, with only 18 H and 7 BB. Darvish has 2 CG's in 4 starts, and 1 SO. He has the Nippon Ham Fighters atop the Pacific League, at a record of 11-8.
Newcastle United
Most of the time, when you hear about a football club being relegated from the Premiership, its West Bromwich Albion, Middlesbrough, Derby County, Reading, etc. However, this season, one of the most historic, and generally successful clubs in England, Newcastle United, is in serious danger of being relegated. They're currently sitting in 19th place, when 18-20 get relegated. Some players you may have heard of on Newcastle United-Michael Owen, Geremi, Damien Duff, Shay Given, etc. To make some sort of comparision, if MLB had relegation, this would be kind of like if a team of the caliber of maybe the Cardinals or Mets got relegated I guess.
Bayern Munich
Jurgen Klinsmann was sacked today by Bayern Munich after he allowed them to drop to 3rd in the less than great German Bundesliga. Klinsmann was not quite finished with his 1st season at Bayern, and his sacking comes as a massive shock to the football world, as Bayern Munich is the undisputed best team (and the only team with any level of respectability) in the German Bundesliga, which, when compared to the Premiership, is like AAA compared to MLB.
Florida Marlins
Losers of 6 straight games since starting 11-1, the Marlins still remain 1.5 games ahead of 2nd place Philadelphia, but they are also starting a 3 game series @ Citi Field, then have to head to the friendly confines to battle the Cubs for 4 games. Considering the Marlins just got swept by Philly and the Pittsburgh Pirates, it's pretty tough to say that the beginning of the season was somewhat of a fluke. That is not to say that this isn't a talented team, as it certainly has a good core of young players that are built around arguably the best player in baseball. However, don't expect them to reclaim the division lead once they lose it in the next few weeks, considering their team just isn't that great.
Boston Red Sox
Here at IHOB we hate the east coast bias as much as the rest of you, but the BoSox deserve a mention here. Has anyone noticed that they're a whopping 10-0 in their last 10 games. Also, even more insane, 2 of those wins are from "Ramon Ramirez", 2 are from 53 year old Tim Wakefield, 2 by Justin Masterson, and 1 by the great Brad Penny. If the Red Sox can win 10 games in a row with pitchers like that, it should be interesting to see how well they do once Daisuke comes back. Also keep in mind that John Smoltz is on their roster, and if he comes back with anything in the tank, it would just be a ridiculous pitching staff.
San Francisco Giants
They've won 5 out of 6, and are starting to get some hitting production from the young Pablo Sandoval. Also, Barry Zito looked like vintage Barry Zito in his last start, lowering his season ERA to just under 8. Also, Matt Cain has looked monstrous this year, with an ERA of 2.08 and a record of 2-0.
World Cricket
Australia won a battle of the heavyweight national teams against Pakistan yesterday in Abu Dhabi, winning 198 for 7 to 171. Michael Clarke shined for Australia, as they beat a Pakistani team that is playing their first high profile international match since March's terrorist attacks in Lahore on the Sri Lankan national team.
Brief NFL Draft Thoughts
I really liked Denver's pick of Knowshon Moreno at 12th overall. Denver has had a great history of developing good RB's with limited physical gifts and potential, including Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, etc. This would lead you to believe that a phenominally gifted athelete like Moreno, who also has an unmatched work ethic and intensity, will be able to really flourish in Denver, especially with Kyle Orton at QB, thus limiting their passing potential to some extent.
Also, San Fran made an excellent pick with Michael Crabtree at 10th overall, but anyone could tell you that.
The pick of Darrius Heyward-Bey, while certainly rather curious, was not nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. He's freakishly fast, and should play well with young QB Jamarcus Russell, who's had no success whatsoever so far but may do well with such a fast vertical presence.
LSU Baseball has dropped to 5th in the nation with a 33-12 record. Geaux Tigers, win the CWS
Also, the obligatory Go Hawks tonight, finish off those Canadians.
So far this season in Japan, Yu Darvish is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA. His WHIP is .74, and he has 29 K's in 34 innings, with only 18 H and 7 BB. Darvish has 2 CG's in 4 starts, and 1 SO. He has the Nippon Ham Fighters atop the Pacific League, at a record of 11-8.
Newcastle United
Most of the time, when you hear about a football club being relegated from the Premiership, its West Bromwich Albion, Middlesbrough, Derby County, Reading, etc. However, this season, one of the most historic, and generally successful clubs in England, Newcastle United, is in serious danger of being relegated. They're currently sitting in 19th place, when 18-20 get relegated. Some players you may have heard of on Newcastle United-Michael Owen, Geremi, Damien Duff, Shay Given, etc. To make some sort of comparision, if MLB had relegation, this would be kind of like if a team of the caliber of maybe the Cardinals or Mets got relegated I guess.
Bayern Munich
Jurgen Klinsmann was sacked today by Bayern Munich after he allowed them to drop to 3rd in the less than great German Bundesliga. Klinsmann was not quite finished with his 1st season at Bayern, and his sacking comes as a massive shock to the football world, as Bayern Munich is the undisputed best team (and the only team with any level of respectability) in the German Bundesliga, which, when compared to the Premiership, is like AAA compared to MLB.
Florida Marlins
Losers of 6 straight games since starting 11-1, the Marlins still remain 1.5 games ahead of 2nd place Philadelphia, but they are also starting a 3 game series @ Citi Field, then have to head to the friendly confines to battle the Cubs for 4 games. Considering the Marlins just got swept by Philly and the Pittsburgh Pirates, it's pretty tough to say that the beginning of the season was somewhat of a fluke. That is not to say that this isn't a talented team, as it certainly has a good core of young players that are built around arguably the best player in baseball. However, don't expect them to reclaim the division lead once they lose it in the next few weeks, considering their team just isn't that great.
Boston Red Sox
Here at IHOB we hate the east coast bias as much as the rest of you, but the BoSox deserve a mention here. Has anyone noticed that they're a whopping 10-0 in their last 10 games. Also, even more insane, 2 of those wins are from "Ramon Ramirez", 2 are from 53 year old Tim Wakefield, 2 by Justin Masterson, and 1 by the great Brad Penny. If the Red Sox can win 10 games in a row with pitchers like that, it should be interesting to see how well they do once Daisuke comes back. Also keep in mind that John Smoltz is on their roster, and if he comes back with anything in the tank, it would just be a ridiculous pitching staff.
San Francisco Giants
They've won 5 out of 6, and are starting to get some hitting production from the young Pablo Sandoval. Also, Barry Zito looked like vintage Barry Zito in his last start, lowering his season ERA to just under 8. Also, Matt Cain has looked monstrous this year, with an ERA of 2.08 and a record of 2-0.
World Cricket
Australia won a battle of the heavyweight national teams against Pakistan yesterday in Abu Dhabi, winning 198 for 7 to 171. Michael Clarke shined for Australia, as they beat a Pakistani team that is playing their first high profile international match since March's terrorist attacks in Lahore on the Sri Lankan national team.
Brief NFL Draft Thoughts
I really liked Denver's pick of Knowshon Moreno at 12th overall. Denver has had a great history of developing good RB's with limited physical gifts and potential, including Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, etc. This would lead you to believe that a phenominally gifted athelete like Moreno, who also has an unmatched work ethic and intensity, will be able to really flourish in Denver, especially with Kyle Orton at QB, thus limiting their passing potential to some extent.
Also, San Fran made an excellent pick with Michael Crabtree at 10th overall, but anyone could tell you that.
The pick of Darrius Heyward-Bey, while certainly rather curious, was not nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. He's freakishly fast, and should play well with young QB Jamarcus Russell, who's had no success whatsoever so far but may do well with such a fast vertical presence.
LSU Baseball has dropped to 5th in the nation with a 33-12 record. Geaux Tigers, win the CWS
Also, the obligatory Go Hawks tonight, finish off those Canadians.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Meet the Prospects: Patrick Schuster (Pitcher-Mitchell High School (FL))
As this segment started here at IHOB, I said I was only going to write about possible first round picks for this year’s draft. That being said, Patrick Schuster has made me write about him. He is a pitcher for Mitchell High School in the Tampa, FL area, all he has recently accomplished is throwing 4 consecutive no hitters, no big deal. Schuster has said that this feat hasn’t hit him yet and he tries to not think about it while he’s on the mound. To put this streak into perspective, Zack Greinke of the Royals just had his streak of 38 innings without allowing a run to score; Schuster went 30 innings without allowing a hit during this streak. There is no denying that this feat is amazing, Schuster even recognizes that more scouts are coming to look at him pitch. But don’t look for this streak to push his stock up into the first round.
Schuster is still projected as a fourth round pick but he has signed on to play baseball at the University of Florida, so look for him to go there to develop his game further and boost his draft stock in the next few years while helping the Gators. The scouting report on Schuster has his stuff as just average right now with his fastball hitting 90 mph, his curveball sitting between 74-77 mph, and his changeup between 78-80 mph. Some team will most likely draft Schuster at some point in the draft but look for him to go to Florida to improve his abilities and become a first round pick later down the road.
Up Next: Alex White, Pitcher - North Carolina Tar Heels
Schuster is still projected as a fourth round pick but he has signed on to play baseball at the University of Florida, so look for him to go there to develop his game further and boost his draft stock in the next few years while helping the Gators. The scouting report on Schuster has his stuff as just average right now with his fastball hitting 90 mph, his curveball sitting between 74-77 mph, and his changeup between 78-80 mph. Some team will most likely draft Schuster at some point in the draft but look for him to go to Florida to improve his abilities and become a first round pick later down the road.
Up Next: Alex White, Pitcher - North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Examining the curious home run totals of the New Yankee Stadium
The New Yankee Stadium appears to be a hitter's paradise through its first six games. There have been 26 home runs hit in the first two series, for a staggering 4.33 home runs per game. For comparison purposes, the first year of Coors Field saw 3.34 home runs per game, the last year in Yankee Stadium saw 1.975 home runs per game, and there were 2.00 home runs per game in the American League last year. Here, we will examine if the number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is statistically significant compared to the number of home runs in the old Stadium and in the American League in general, as this difference could be due to chance alone.
First, we will examine whether or not there are more home runs in the New Yankee Stadium gives rise to more home runs than the old stadium. To do this, we will perform a one-sided t-hypothesis test. Basically, a hypothesis test is when you test if something (a null hypothesis) is true. Our null hypothesis is that the New Yankee Stadium is no different than the old one, i.e., the true mean value of home runs per game is 1.975 as it was in the old stadium. The alternative hypothesis is that the true mean amount of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than 1.975. For us to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative, we will have to perform a test. If this test gives us enough evidence, we will reject the null hypothesis, otherwise we will accept the null hypothesis. The test statistic is called t. If t is greater than a certain value determined by the level of the test and the degrees of freedom, then we will reject the null hypothesis. The level used for this test will be .05 and the degrees of freedom is 5 (n - 1, n = 6, 6 - 1 = 5). The test statistic for this particular test is 2.015 (Level of .05 means the following: If the true mean home runs per game is 1.975, we would obtain a t > 2.015 only 5% of the time). So, if our t-statistic is greater than 2.015, we will reject the null hypothesis. Based on our data, we obtain a t = 2.397. Because this is greater than our test statistic 2.015, we reject the null hypothesis that the true mean home runs per game is equal to that of the Old Yankee Stadium and conclude that the true mean home runs per game is greater than that of the Old Yankee Stadium.
Next, we can see if there are a statistically significant amount more home runs in the New Yankee Stadium compared to the entire American League, using data from last year. There were 2.00 home runs per game in the American League last year. Our null hypothesis is that the true mean number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is 2.00, and the alternative is that the true mean number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than 2.00. Bypassing the explanation of the calculations as they were the same as the last one, we obtain a test statistic of 2.015. As before, if we obtain a t greater than 2.015, we will reject the null hypothesis, otherwise we will fail to reject the null hypothesis. We obtain a t = 2.278. Once again, we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the true mean number of home runs per game in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than the 2.00, which is the mean number of home runs per game in the American League.
Conclusion
Interestingly enough, we have found that the high number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is statistically significant. It remains to be seen if this stadium will be the new Coors Field, but even that is certainly a possibility. The ramifications of this apparent miscalculation could be severe for the Yankees. They are a franchise that has predicated itself on being able to buy whoever they want, hitting and pitching-wise. While this should not affect their hitting, it will damage their ability to buy pitching. Signings like A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia may not have been possible. To continue getting solid pitching, New York will have to pay more, which in the past has been no problem, but if the economy does not recover in the near future and if the Yankees do not sell out their stadium, there may be issues down the road because of this stadium.
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The record for most home runs in a game is 12. This was set by the Tigers and White Sox twice, on May 28, 1995 and July 2, 2002.
First, we will examine whether or not there are more home runs in the New Yankee Stadium gives rise to more home runs than the old stadium. To do this, we will perform a one-sided t-hypothesis test. Basically, a hypothesis test is when you test if something (a null hypothesis) is true. Our null hypothesis is that the New Yankee Stadium is no different than the old one, i.e., the true mean value of home runs per game is 1.975 as it was in the old stadium. The alternative hypothesis is that the true mean amount of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than 1.975. For us to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative, we will have to perform a test. If this test gives us enough evidence, we will reject the null hypothesis, otherwise we will accept the null hypothesis. The test statistic is called t. If t is greater than a certain value determined by the level of the test and the degrees of freedom, then we will reject the null hypothesis. The level used for this test will be .05 and the degrees of freedom is 5 (n - 1, n = 6, 6 - 1 = 5). The test statistic for this particular test is 2.015 (Level of .05 means the following: If the true mean home runs per game is 1.975, we would obtain a t > 2.015 only 5% of the time). So, if our t-statistic is greater than 2.015, we will reject the null hypothesis. Based on our data, we obtain a t = 2.397. Because this is greater than our test statistic 2.015, we reject the null hypothesis that the true mean home runs per game is equal to that of the Old Yankee Stadium and conclude that the true mean home runs per game is greater than that of the Old Yankee Stadium.
Next, we can see if there are a statistically significant amount more home runs in the New Yankee Stadium compared to the entire American League, using data from last year. There were 2.00 home runs per game in the American League last year. Our null hypothesis is that the true mean number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is 2.00, and the alternative is that the true mean number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than 2.00. Bypassing the explanation of the calculations as they were the same as the last one, we obtain a test statistic of 2.015. As before, if we obtain a t greater than 2.015, we will reject the null hypothesis, otherwise we will fail to reject the null hypothesis. We obtain a t = 2.278. Once again, we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the true mean number of home runs per game in the New Yankee Stadium is greater than the 2.00, which is the mean number of home runs per game in the American League.
Conclusion
Interestingly enough, we have found that the high number of home runs in the New Yankee Stadium is statistically significant. It remains to be seen if this stadium will be the new Coors Field, but even that is certainly a possibility. The ramifications of this apparent miscalculation could be severe for the Yankees. They are a franchise that has predicated itself on being able to buy whoever they want, hitting and pitching-wise. While this should not affect their hitting, it will damage their ability to buy pitching. Signings like A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia may not have been possible. To continue getting solid pitching, New York will have to pay more, which in the past has been no problem, but if the economy does not recover in the near future and if the Yankees do not sell out their stadium, there may be issues down the road because of this stadium.
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The record for most home runs in a game is 12. This was set by the Tigers and White Sox twice, on May 28, 1995 and July 2, 2002.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Is Kansas City's Young Pitching for Real?
For more than two decades, the Kansas City Royals have been the joke of Major League Baseball. They have been the Los Angeles Clippers, but without the cool city to play in. They've been the Detroit Lions, but without Barry Sanders. They've been whatever hockey team is always bad, but without whatever their redeeming quality may be. The Royals have been pitiful for a long time. In recent years, however, due to an insane amount of high draft picks (because of how bad they are), and wise choices in the rule 5 draft (see Joakim Soria), they have become to gain some shred of respectability. Currently, the Royals sit at 8-7, in a 3-way tie atop the AL Central with the White Sox and Tigers. The Royals success has largely been a result of their young pitchers, several of which have dominated thus far this year. Currently, the Royals are getting huge success from both Zack Greinke, and Kyle Davies, with a decent start coming recently from Brian Bannister. They have also received fine starts from their "ace", Gil Meche, the old man of their rotation. Their long term success this season will come down to Greinke, Davies, Bannister, and Luke Hochevar, who is currently at AAA Omaha but should see major league action sometime soon. Therefore, a major question is whether their pitching is for real. Lets go through each pitcher and see-
Zack Greinke- Numbers so far- 3-0, 20.0 IP, 26 K's, 16 H, 5 BB, 0.00 ERA-Obviously, Zack Greinke will not keep this pace going, as anyone reading this article should know that that is very much not possible. However, Greinke did not get drafted #6 overall in 2002, at the age of 19, ahead of such players as Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, and Prince Fielder, for no good reason. Coming out of high school, Greinke was a monster, having been named the 2002 Gatorade National Player of the Year. After being drafted, he destroyed the minors before being called up, and had a fine rookie season, going 8-11 with a 3.97 ERA. However, Greinke then decided to go insane, and had to be treated for an anxiety disorder. He was forced to leave baseball for awhile and pull himself together, and came back in 2007 with mixed results. Last season, however, he went 13-10 with a 3.47, pitching 202.1 innings. He has showed thus far this season that he's over whatever inner demons he had, and its certainly not farfetched to say that he'll win 17-19 games this season after such a hot start. The verdict here is that Zack Greinke is very much for real, assuming he can avoid going insane again.
Kyle Davies- 1-0, 18.2 IP, 21 K, 13 H, 8 BB, 2.89 ERA-Davies has a similar story to Greinke's, being a beast in high school, being heavily recruited by many major college baseball programs, and deciding to go pro. Davies was drafted by the Braves in 2003, and made his major league debut in 2005, pitching very well against the Red Sox at Fenway during a Braves interleague game. For the next couple of years he shifted between the Braves and their AAA affiliate, and was ultimately traded to the Royals for future Hall of Famer Octavio Dotel. He pitched poorly for the Royals in the 2nd half of 2007, but had a respectable 2008, going 9-7 with a 4.06 in 113 IP. This season, he's pitched pretty well, and his numbers are even more impressive when you consider one of his starts was @TEX and one was @CWS. However, I don't think that Davies can keep up this pace all season, and given how bad the Royals offense is, I expect him to finish with a record around .500 with an ERA around 4, similar to last season.
Luke Hochevar-Hochevar was drafted by the Dodgers out of high school, but instead elected to attend the University of Tennessee. He pitched phenomenally at UT, winning the Roger Clemens Award in 2005. He was drafted again by the Dodgers, refused to sign while being represented by Scott Boras, then in an incredible turn of events, switched agents, signed a contract, then, even more insanely, switched back to Boras the very next day and reneged the deal. Needless to say, the Dodgers were not happy, and he never ended up signing with them. He instead went to play in an independent league, and was then drafted 1st overall in 2006 by the Royals. Hochevar's major league debut was in late 2007, and he has pitched rather poorly thus far in the majors. However, unlike many high school pitchers who are something of a wildcard, Hochevar was able to dominate the most competitive conference in college baseball for several years, and clearly has the potential to pitch in the majors someday. He was sent to AAA after Spring Training to work on pitching on both sides of the plate, and its a pretty safe bet to say that he'll be called up sometime this season, especially if Sidney Ponson's 7.04 ERA doesn't improve soon. Its rather difficult to make a call as to whether Hochevar is for real or not, as he has very limited experience in the majors, but given how well he pitched in the SEC, its safe to say that at the very least, he will be a fine #3 starter.
The Royals may be able to continue competing in the AL central this year if their young pitchers are able to pitch consistently well, but its even more important that they get some offense. Currently, their lineup is looking much improved over last season, mainly due to the addition of Mike Jacobs and the wonderfully named, but terribly overrated Coco Crisp. It does appear, however, that if nothing else, the one guy on ESPN.com who picked Zack Greinke as his preseason Cy Young favorite may not have been so crazy after all. Or at least not as crazy as Zack Greinke is.
Zack Greinke- Numbers so far- 3-0, 20.0 IP, 26 K's, 16 H, 5 BB, 0.00 ERA-Obviously, Zack Greinke will not keep this pace going, as anyone reading this article should know that that is very much not possible. However, Greinke did not get drafted #6 overall in 2002, at the age of 19, ahead of such players as Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, and Prince Fielder, for no good reason. Coming out of high school, Greinke was a monster, having been named the 2002 Gatorade National Player of the Year. After being drafted, he destroyed the minors before being called up, and had a fine rookie season, going 8-11 with a 3.97 ERA. However, Greinke then decided to go insane, and had to be treated for an anxiety disorder. He was forced to leave baseball for awhile and pull himself together, and came back in 2007 with mixed results. Last season, however, he went 13-10 with a 3.47, pitching 202.1 innings. He has showed thus far this season that he's over whatever inner demons he had, and its certainly not farfetched to say that he'll win 17-19 games this season after such a hot start. The verdict here is that Zack Greinke is very much for real, assuming he can avoid going insane again.
Kyle Davies- 1-0, 18.2 IP, 21 K, 13 H, 8 BB, 2.89 ERA-Davies has a similar story to Greinke's, being a beast in high school, being heavily recruited by many major college baseball programs, and deciding to go pro. Davies was drafted by the Braves in 2003, and made his major league debut in 2005, pitching very well against the Red Sox at Fenway during a Braves interleague game. For the next couple of years he shifted between the Braves and their AAA affiliate, and was ultimately traded to the Royals for future Hall of Famer Octavio Dotel. He pitched poorly for the Royals in the 2nd half of 2007, but had a respectable 2008, going 9-7 with a 4.06 in 113 IP. This season, he's pitched pretty well, and his numbers are even more impressive when you consider one of his starts was @TEX and one was @CWS. However, I don't think that Davies can keep up this pace all season, and given how bad the Royals offense is, I expect him to finish with a record around .500 with an ERA around 4, similar to last season.
Luke Hochevar-Hochevar was drafted by the Dodgers out of high school, but instead elected to attend the University of Tennessee. He pitched phenomenally at UT, winning the Roger Clemens Award in 2005. He was drafted again by the Dodgers, refused to sign while being represented by Scott Boras, then in an incredible turn of events, switched agents, signed a contract, then, even more insanely, switched back to Boras the very next day and reneged the deal. Needless to say, the Dodgers were not happy, and he never ended up signing with them. He instead went to play in an independent league, and was then drafted 1st overall in 2006 by the Royals. Hochevar's major league debut was in late 2007, and he has pitched rather poorly thus far in the majors. However, unlike many high school pitchers who are something of a wildcard, Hochevar was able to dominate the most competitive conference in college baseball for several years, and clearly has the potential to pitch in the majors someday. He was sent to AAA after Spring Training to work on pitching on both sides of the plate, and its a pretty safe bet to say that he'll be called up sometime this season, especially if Sidney Ponson's 7.04 ERA doesn't improve soon. Its rather difficult to make a call as to whether Hochevar is for real or not, as he has very limited experience in the majors, but given how well he pitched in the SEC, its safe to say that at the very least, he will be a fine #3 starter.
The Royals may be able to continue competing in the AL central this year if their young pitchers are able to pitch consistently well, but its even more important that they get some offense. Currently, their lineup is looking much improved over last season, mainly due to the addition of Mike Jacobs and the wonderfully named, but terribly overrated Coco Crisp. It does appear, however, that if nothing else, the one guy on ESPN.com who picked Zack Greinke as his preseason Cy Young favorite may not have been so crazy after all. Or at least not as crazy as Zack Greinke is.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Meet the Prospects: Kyle Gibson (Pitcher - University of Missouri)
Kyle Gibson is a junior for the Mizzou Tigers; he has gone 17-7 in his 2 seasons for the Tigers compiling an ERA of 3.98 in the Big 12. In 2008, he finished 3rd in the Big 12 in strikeout with 96 and has struck out 173 batters in his two full seasons over 154.1 innings.
This season for Missouri, Gibson has made 10 starts, pitching 69 innings, and he’s gone 6-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP (Walks+Hits/IP) while striking out 90 hitters. It is safe to say this is the best season for Gibson but he has continued to improve each season, which is what you want from your prospects and scouts are taking notice.
The two mock drafts that I’ve looked at have Gibson going either sixth to the San Francisco Giants or eighth to the Cincinnati Reds. Gibson is no secret to scouts however; he was drafted in the 2006 amateur draft after high school but chose to sign with Missouri instead.
Saberscouting.com compares Gibson to John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They describe him having the perfect pitcher’s body and compare his build to a young Mark Prior. They say his fastball sits at 88-90 MPH with late movement; his slider is between 80-83 MPH with a 10-4 break. His changeup goes from 79-81 MPH but doesn’t use it because he doesn’t trust it.
Here's a video of Gibson thanks to Saberscouting.com:
Next up: Patrick Schuster, not a first round pick but he has thrown 4 consecutive no-hitters, stay tuned.
This season for Missouri, Gibson has made 10 starts, pitching 69 innings, and he’s gone 6-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP (Walks+Hits/IP) while striking out 90 hitters. It is safe to say this is the best season for Gibson but he has continued to improve each season, which is what you want from your prospects and scouts are taking notice.
The two mock drafts that I’ve looked at have Gibson going either sixth to the San Francisco Giants or eighth to the Cincinnati Reds. Gibson is no secret to scouts however; he was drafted in the 2006 amateur draft after high school but chose to sign with Missouri instead.
Saberscouting.com compares Gibson to John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They describe him having the perfect pitcher’s body and compare his build to a young Mark Prior. They say his fastball sits at 88-90 MPH with late movement; his slider is between 80-83 MPH with a 10-4 break. His changeup goes from 79-81 MPH but doesn’t use it because he doesn’t trust it.
Here's a video of Gibson thanks to Saberscouting.com:
Next up: Patrick Schuster, not a first round pick but he has thrown 4 consecutive no-hitters, stay tuned.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Assorted Notes from the Sports World
World Curling Championships 2009
Scotland topped Canada in the Gold medal game of the 2009 World Curling Championships. Scotland, led by skipper David Murdoch, got a point in the tenth end to steal the victory, 7-6. Norway defeated Switzerland in the Bronze medal game. Fengchun Wang of China won the Collie Campbell Award as the player who best exhibits ability and sportsmanship.
UEFA Champions League
Quarterfinals:
Chelsea def. Liverpool 7-5 on aggregate: Chelsea shocked Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield (Liverpool) in the first leg. In the second leg at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea), Liverpool came back from a 3-2 deficit in the 80th minute and scored two goals in two minutes to pull within a goal of making it to the semi-finals. However, Frank Lampard scored in the 89th to put it away for Les Blues.
Barcelona def. Bayern Munich 5-1 on aggregate: Barcelona won the first leg 4-0 at Camp Nou (Barcelona) on the heels of two goals from Lionel Messi, effectively ending Bayern's hopes of advancing.
Arsenal def. Villarreal 4-1 on aggregate: The first leg was a 1-1 draw at Villarreal, but Arsenal put it away with a 3-0 win at Emirates to advance to the semifinals.
Manchester United def. FC Porto 3-2 on aggregate: Mariano Gonzalez scored for Porto to force a shocking 2-2 tie at Old Trafford in the first leg. Manchester United was able to squeak by with a 1-0 win at Porto, by virtue of a Christiano Ronaldo goal in the 6th minute.
Semifinal matchups:
Barcelona v. Chelsea, April 28 and May 6
Manchester United v. Arsenal, April 29 and May 5
Olympic Sports
-Deriba Merga of Ethiopia won the men's Boston Marathon after placing fourth in the Beijing Olympics. Merga had a time of 2:08:42, finishing almost a full minute ahead of Daniel Rono of Kenya and Ryan Hall of the United States.
-Salina Kosgei of Kenya won the women's Boston Marathon in the closest women's finish ever, edging out Dire Tune of Ethiopia by less than a stride, in a time of 2:32:16. American Kara Goucher had led late in the race and finished just nine seconds back of the two. The Dual third-place finish for the Americans was the best since 1985.
-Two British cricket teams set the record for field event played at the highest altitude. The Twenty20 match was played at the foot of Mount Everest at Gorakshep, 16,940 feet above sea level. Team Hillary defeated Team Tenzing in the match, and the teams were named for Sir Edmund Hillary and his guide Tenzing Norgay, who were the first to conquer Everest in 1953.
-Marleen Veldhuis of the Netherlands broke the women's 50-meter freestyle and 50-meter butterfly world records. She broke Australian Libby Trickett's freestyle record by one-hundredth of a second, cutting it to 23.96 seconds. The Butterfly was formerly held by Swede Therese Alshammar, and the record is now 25.33 seconds from 25.46 seconds.
-International Olympic Committee chairwoman Nawal el Moutawakel was "most impressed" by Tokyo's bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics. The committee has already visited Chicago and still needs to visit Rio de Janeiro and Madrid, and will make their final vote on October 2 of this year.
2009 ACC/Big Ten Challenge Matchups
Penn State at Virginia
Maryland at Indiana
Michigan State at North Carolina
Northwestern at North Carolina State
Virginia Tech at Iowa
Wake Forest at Purdue
Boston College at Michigan
Duke at Wisconsin
Florida State at Ohio State
Illinois at Clemson
Minnesota at Miami
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The record for most consecutive seasons leading the league in strikeouts is held by Walter Johnson, who did it for 8 straight seasons from 1912 to 1919. In that span Johnson was 215-113 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He had 1699 K, good for an average of 212.4 per season and 5.6 K/9.O
Scotland topped Canada in the Gold medal game of the 2009 World Curling Championships. Scotland, led by skipper David Murdoch, got a point in the tenth end to steal the victory, 7-6. Norway defeated Switzerland in the Bronze medal game. Fengchun Wang of China won the Collie Campbell Award as the player who best exhibits ability and sportsmanship.
UEFA Champions League
Quarterfinals:
Chelsea def. Liverpool 7-5 on aggregate: Chelsea shocked Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield (Liverpool) in the first leg. In the second leg at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea), Liverpool came back from a 3-2 deficit in the 80th minute and scored two goals in two minutes to pull within a goal of making it to the semi-finals. However, Frank Lampard scored in the 89th to put it away for Les Blues.
Barcelona def. Bayern Munich 5-1 on aggregate: Barcelona won the first leg 4-0 at Camp Nou (Barcelona) on the heels of two goals from Lionel Messi, effectively ending Bayern's hopes of advancing.
Arsenal def. Villarreal 4-1 on aggregate: The first leg was a 1-1 draw at Villarreal, but Arsenal put it away with a 3-0 win at Emirates to advance to the semifinals.
Manchester United def. FC Porto 3-2 on aggregate: Mariano Gonzalez scored for Porto to force a shocking 2-2 tie at Old Trafford in the first leg. Manchester United was able to squeak by with a 1-0 win at Porto, by virtue of a Christiano Ronaldo goal in the 6th minute.
Semifinal matchups:
Barcelona v. Chelsea, April 28 and May 6
Manchester United v. Arsenal, April 29 and May 5
Olympic Sports
-Deriba Merga of Ethiopia won the men's Boston Marathon after placing fourth in the Beijing Olympics. Merga had a time of 2:08:42, finishing almost a full minute ahead of Daniel Rono of Kenya and Ryan Hall of the United States.
-Salina Kosgei of Kenya won the women's Boston Marathon in the closest women's finish ever, edging out Dire Tune of Ethiopia by less than a stride, in a time of 2:32:16. American Kara Goucher had led late in the race and finished just nine seconds back of the two. The Dual third-place finish for the Americans was the best since 1985.
-Two British cricket teams set the record for field event played at the highest altitude. The Twenty20 match was played at the foot of Mount Everest at Gorakshep, 16,940 feet above sea level. Team Hillary defeated Team Tenzing in the match, and the teams were named for Sir Edmund Hillary and his guide Tenzing Norgay, who were the first to conquer Everest in 1953.
-Marleen Veldhuis of the Netherlands broke the women's 50-meter freestyle and 50-meter butterfly world records. She broke Australian Libby Trickett's freestyle record by one-hundredth of a second, cutting it to 23.96 seconds. The Butterfly was formerly held by Swede Therese Alshammar, and the record is now 25.33 seconds from 25.46 seconds.
-International Olympic Committee chairwoman Nawal el Moutawakel was "most impressed" by Tokyo's bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics. The committee has already visited Chicago and still needs to visit Rio de Janeiro and Madrid, and will make their final vote on October 2 of this year.
2009 ACC/Big Ten Challenge Matchups
Penn State at Virginia
Maryland at Indiana
Michigan State at North Carolina
Northwestern at North Carolina State
Virginia Tech at Iowa
Wake Forest at Purdue
Boston College at Michigan
Duke at Wisconsin
Florida State at Ohio State
Illinois at Clemson
Minnesota at Miami
Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The record for most consecutive seasons leading the league in strikeouts is held by Walter Johnson, who did it for 8 straight seasons from 1912 to 1919. In that span Johnson was 215-113 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He had 1699 K, good for an average of 212.4 per season and 5.6 K/9.O
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Meet the Prospects: Dustin Ackley (1B/OF UNC-Chapel Hill)
Continuing the series here at IHOB, it’s time for you all to meet Dustin Ackley, a junior from the University of North Carolina. Ackley has earned back to back All-American honors, and is considered one of the top hitting players in the nation. He was a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes award in 2008. Ackley is probably better suited for the outfield due to fact he doesn’t have the outrageous home run totals that are expected of first basemen. Ackley hit .417 in his sophomore season, the highest the Tar Heels have had since Brian Roberts hit .427 in 1997. While that was impressive, he is the only Tar Heel to ever hit over .400 for more than one season. Ackley displays good speed stealing 11 bases his freshman year and following that up with 19 stolen bases his sophomore year. He has a good amount of power hitting 17 home runs and driving in 125 runs in his 2 full seasons at North Carolina. Ackley shows great patience with an On-Base Percentage during his first two years at UNC of .475, so he gets on the bases a good amount of times and he only struck out 48 times in the 574 at-bats he had in his first two seasons at North Carolina.
So far this season for Ackley he has hit 11 home runs, driving in 34, he’s stole 9 bases in 11 attempts, and is getting on-base at a 50.8% rate. He has moved up in most mock drafts thanks to his season so far and the slow start by Grant Green who I introduced you to last week. Most of the drafts I’ve seen have him going to the Mariners with the second overall pick. Of course, I haven’t seen Ackley play in person, but from the stats I have looked at and reviews from scouts, he sounds like a player you’ll be seeing in a few years roaming the outfield for a major league team. Next week look for a preview on Kyle Gibson, a pitcher for the University of Missouri.
Here's a video of Ackley:
FYI: I will be writing up previews on mostly college players as it is a lot easier to find stats on them than it is to find stats and information on the projected High School selections. But I will look for any information I can find on them and send it along to you all.
So far this season for Ackley he has hit 11 home runs, driving in 34, he’s stole 9 bases in 11 attempts, and is getting on-base at a 50.8% rate. He has moved up in most mock drafts thanks to his season so far and the slow start by Grant Green who I introduced you to last week. Most of the drafts I’ve seen have him going to the Mariners with the second overall pick. Of course, I haven’t seen Ackley play in person, but from the stats I have looked at and reviews from scouts, he sounds like a player you’ll be seeing in a few years roaming the outfield for a major league team. Next week look for a preview on Kyle Gibson, a pitcher for the University of Missouri.
Here's a video of Ackley:
FYI: I will be writing up previews on mostly college players as it is a lot easier to find stats on them than it is to find stats and information on the projected High School selections. But I will look for any information I can find on them and send it along to you all.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Impressions of the First Few Weeks of the Season
Biggest Surprise Of a Team
Florida Marlins-
At 11-1 and way out ahead of their division, the Marlins have dominated so far this season. Their hitting has been very balanced so far, with 3 hitters already at 10+ RBI. The biggest surprise has so far been their young pitching staff, which has been mowing down opponents. The biggest surprise among their pitchers has been Chris Volstad, who has a 2.76 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings pitched. The 22 year old is beginning to show why he was picked as the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of high school, and should continue to impress throughout the season.
Runner Up for Biggest Surprise- Seattle Mariners, who, with 8 wins through April 19th, have equaled their win total through July for last season.
Biggest Disappointment Of a Team
It would be easy to pick the 1-11 Nationals, but nothing was expected of them anyway, so the biggest disappointment is the Angels, at 4-8. They're last in their division, and Vlad hasn't really been producing at all, and is now apparently injured. As a whole, the team has not played that badly, and have really only lost a lot of close games, but nonetheless, they're last place in a pretty bad division. Once John Lackey comes back and gives their rotation gives them some stability, and if their bullpen can stabilize, they should still win the division. The fact that they've lost a lot of close games doesn't really mean all that much, as close games tend to balance out over a whole season.
Runner Up- Nationals. 1-11 is just sad.
Most Surprising Start for a Player who is likely to keep the stats up for a whole season
Ian Kinsler- While I don't think that Ian Kinsler will bat .460 for a whole season, like he's doing now, he's been absolutley on fire so far, and while he's had some media attention and fantasy hype the last few years, this year he's looking ready to absolutely dominate. He was tearing it up in a similar fashion all year last year, until he got injured in August and missed the rest of the season, but he may well bat about .325 with 30 HR and 110 RBI this season, making him just a beast.
Runner Up-Aaron Hill- look for the little Canadian to make some noise this season, coming back from some surgery and is finally healthy.
Worst Start Ever
It is rare that I will ever pass up a chance to bash the Brew Crew, and now is no exception. With a current batting average of .222, a whopping 1 HR, and 5 whole RBIs through 45 AB, Ryan Braun takes this award with ease. He has looked so pathetic, inadequate, and lost at the plate that his fielding is now starting to look good by comparision. For those of you who drafted him 5th overall or something in your fantasy leagues, be patient, but be warned, he's probably not very good. (not really though, he's a beast, and will probably come around, I can't be that biased)
Runner Up-my old pal Jimmy Rollins, who is currently batting .152 with 1 HR and 4 RBI. He also has as many stolen bases this season as I do. Which is 0.
Most Unbelievable Moment of the Season Thus Far
Sportscenter doing a "If the Season Ended Today" playoff matchup last night. On April 19th. 2 weeks into the season. Simply an unbelievable turn of events that no one saw coming. Very disappointing on ESPN's part.
More later this week probably
Florida Marlins-
At 11-1 and way out ahead of their division, the Marlins have dominated so far this season. Their hitting has been very balanced so far, with 3 hitters already at 10+ RBI. The biggest surprise has so far been their young pitching staff, which has been mowing down opponents. The biggest surprise among their pitchers has been Chris Volstad, who has a 2.76 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings pitched. The 22 year old is beginning to show why he was picked as the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of high school, and should continue to impress throughout the season.
Runner Up for Biggest Surprise- Seattle Mariners, who, with 8 wins through April 19th, have equaled their win total through July for last season.
Biggest Disappointment Of a Team
It would be easy to pick the 1-11 Nationals, but nothing was expected of them anyway, so the biggest disappointment is the Angels, at 4-8. They're last in their division, and Vlad hasn't really been producing at all, and is now apparently injured. As a whole, the team has not played that badly, and have really only lost a lot of close games, but nonetheless, they're last place in a pretty bad division. Once John Lackey comes back and gives their rotation gives them some stability, and if their bullpen can stabilize, they should still win the division. The fact that they've lost a lot of close games doesn't really mean all that much, as close games tend to balance out over a whole season.
Runner Up- Nationals. 1-11 is just sad.
Most Surprising Start for a Player who is likely to keep the stats up for a whole season
Ian Kinsler- While I don't think that Ian Kinsler will bat .460 for a whole season, like he's doing now, he's been absolutley on fire so far, and while he's had some media attention and fantasy hype the last few years, this year he's looking ready to absolutely dominate. He was tearing it up in a similar fashion all year last year, until he got injured in August and missed the rest of the season, but he may well bat about .325 with 30 HR and 110 RBI this season, making him just a beast.
Runner Up-Aaron Hill- look for the little Canadian to make some noise this season, coming back from some surgery and is finally healthy.
Worst Start Ever
It is rare that I will ever pass up a chance to bash the Brew Crew, and now is no exception. With a current batting average of .222, a whopping 1 HR, and 5 whole RBIs through 45 AB, Ryan Braun takes this award with ease. He has looked so pathetic, inadequate, and lost at the plate that his fielding is now starting to look good by comparision. For those of you who drafted him 5th overall or something in your fantasy leagues, be patient, but be warned, he's probably not very good. (not really though, he's a beast, and will probably come around, I can't be that biased)
Runner Up-my old pal Jimmy Rollins, who is currently batting .152 with 1 HR and 4 RBI. He also has as many stolen bases this season as I do. Which is 0.
Most Unbelievable Moment of the Season Thus Far
Sportscenter doing a "If the Season Ended Today" playoff matchup last night. On April 19th. 2 weeks into the season. Simply an unbelievable turn of events that no one saw coming. Very disappointing on ESPN's part.
More later this week probably
Saturday, April 18, 2009
It's great to be a Chicagoan!
What an excellent time to be a Chicago sports fan! We've just received our very own ESPN website, we have two teams in the playoffs of their sport, and three teams off to solid starts in their respective seasons. Then there's the Bears, but let's not talk about them right now.
Today was an especially good day, with 5 teams in action going a combined 4-0-1:
Bulls 105, Celtics 103: The Baby Bulls performed like Veteran Bulls in a thrilling overtime win against the KG-less Celtics in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA playoffs. The Bulls gained valuable home court advantage. Derrick Rose scored 36 points (with 11 assists) in his playoff debut, while Joakim Noah garnered 17 rebounds.
Blackhawks 3, Flames 2: The Blackhawks erased a 2-0 deficit after the first period with three goals in the second, two from Jonathan Toews, to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Toews' goals sandwiched a Patrick Sharp goal and fittingly, Da Coach dropped the ceremonial first puck.
Cubs 7, Cardinals 5: Aramis Ramirez hit a walk-off two-run home run in the bottom of the 11th to give the Cubs a thrilling extra innings win. The victory pulled the Cubs into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Bears were represented by newly acquired Jay Cutler, who threw out the first pitch and sang (poorly) the seventh inning stretch. I'd like to take this time to say I really miss Kyle Orton.
White Sox 8, Rays 3: Mark Buehrle went six and two-thirds innings, giving up 8 hits and 3 runs with 5 strikeouts in a solid outing for the Sox. Konerko chipped in with a solid 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI effort while Scott Kazmir struggled in a 4 inning outing for the Rays. The Sox are now tied with the Tigers for second in the AL Central, one game back of the upstart Royals.
Fire 2, Wizards 2: The Fire took a 2-0 lead to the 78th minute after two early Brian McBride goals, but Josh Wolff scored two goals in the last 12 minutes to give the Wizards a 2-2 tie at Toyota Park. Still, the Fire have not been beaten all year, with a 2-0-3 record, good for first place in the Eastern Conference, a point ahead of the New England Revolution.
Today was an especially good day, with 5 teams in action going a combined 4-0-1:
Bulls 105, Celtics 103: The Baby Bulls performed like Veteran Bulls in a thrilling overtime win against the KG-less Celtics in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA playoffs. The Bulls gained valuable home court advantage. Derrick Rose scored 36 points (with 11 assists) in his playoff debut, while Joakim Noah garnered 17 rebounds.
Blackhawks 3, Flames 2: The Blackhawks erased a 2-0 deficit after the first period with three goals in the second, two from Jonathan Toews, to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Toews' goals sandwiched a Patrick Sharp goal and fittingly, Da Coach dropped the ceremonial first puck.
Cubs 7, Cardinals 5: Aramis Ramirez hit a walk-off two-run home run in the bottom of the 11th to give the Cubs a thrilling extra innings win. The victory pulled the Cubs into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Bears were represented by newly acquired Jay Cutler, who threw out the first pitch and sang (poorly) the seventh inning stretch. I'd like to take this time to say I really miss Kyle Orton.
White Sox 8, Rays 3: Mark Buehrle went six and two-thirds innings, giving up 8 hits and 3 runs with 5 strikeouts in a solid outing for the Sox. Konerko chipped in with a solid 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI effort while Scott Kazmir struggled in a 4 inning outing for the Rays. The Sox are now tied with the Tigers for second in the AL Central, one game back of the upstart Royals.
Fire 2, Wizards 2: The Fire took a 2-0 lead to the 78th minute after two early Brian McBride goals, but Josh Wolff scored two goals in the last 12 minutes to give the Wizards a 2-2 tie at Toyota Park. Still, the Fire have not been beaten all year, with a 2-0-3 record, good for first place in the Eastern Conference, a point ahead of the New England Revolution.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Meet the Prospects: Grant Green (SS-USC)
Our objective here at IHOB is to educate you about baseball, so I thought it would be a good idea to give the readers here a little scouting report on the potential first round picks in this summer’s MLB entry draft. I already wrote about Stephen Strasburg a few weeks ago (you can find it here), so now I’m going to introduce you to Grant Green.
Green is a Shortstop from the University of Southern California; he was the first freshman to start for the Trojans at Shortstop. Green was drafted in 2006’s draft by the Padres in the 14th round but decided to put his professional career on hold to go to USC and play for the Trojans. His freshman year, Green won co-freshman of the year in the Pac-10 and then came back his sophomore year and hit .390. His freshman year at USC, Green hit .316 with 2 home runs, driving in 24 while stealing 6 bases. As mentioned previously he hit .390 his sophomore year, he also reached base at a .438 clip, while hitting 9 home runs, stealing 10 bases and driving in 46 runs. Green is a great athlete with good power for a middle infielder and displays good speed. Scouts say he rushes at times defensively but they believe he can play shortstop his entire career. Green played in the Cape Cod league and John Schiffner; his manager there believes that Green is as good as advertised. He is even compared to Evan Longoria by Schiffner, who says that Green is a five-tool talent.
So far this season, Green is hitting .389 and getting on base at a .465 clip through 29 games. He only has 2 home runs and 17 RBI but it is still early in the season so look for Green to get it together offensively and hitting the ball with more authority. Scouts also say his early season funk shouldn’t hurt his stock too much since it is early.
According to some mock drafts, Green will go as high as number 2 overall to the Seattle Mariners. Some believe that if the Washington Nationals believe they can’t sign Strasburg (due to the enormous financial demands by agent Scott Boras), they should draft Green instead as he is a polished hitter who won’t come with such an insane price tag. This is why the MLB Draft is so interesting because teams don’t draft based on need, they draft based on extenuating circumstances (such as financial terms) and who the best player available is due to the length of time players take to make an impact on the major league level.
Here’s a very short video of Grant Green:
Green is a Shortstop from the University of Southern California; he was the first freshman to start for the Trojans at Shortstop. Green was drafted in 2006’s draft by the Padres in the 14th round but decided to put his professional career on hold to go to USC and play for the Trojans. His freshman year, Green won co-freshman of the year in the Pac-10 and then came back his sophomore year and hit .390. His freshman year at USC, Green hit .316 with 2 home runs, driving in 24 while stealing 6 bases. As mentioned previously he hit .390 his sophomore year, he also reached base at a .438 clip, while hitting 9 home runs, stealing 10 bases and driving in 46 runs. Green is a great athlete with good power for a middle infielder and displays good speed. Scouts say he rushes at times defensively but they believe he can play shortstop his entire career. Green played in the Cape Cod league and John Schiffner; his manager there believes that Green is as good as advertised. He is even compared to Evan Longoria by Schiffner, who says that Green is a five-tool talent.
So far this season, Green is hitting .389 and getting on base at a .465 clip through 29 games. He only has 2 home runs and 17 RBI but it is still early in the season so look for Green to get it together offensively and hitting the ball with more authority. Scouts also say his early season funk shouldn’t hurt his stock too much since it is early.
According to some mock drafts, Green will go as high as number 2 overall to the Seattle Mariners. Some believe that if the Washington Nationals believe they can’t sign Strasburg (due to the enormous financial demands by agent Scott Boras), they should draft Green instead as he is a polished hitter who won’t come with such an insane price tag. This is why the MLB Draft is so interesting because teams don’t draft based on need, they draft based on extenuating circumstances (such as financial terms) and who the best player available is due to the length of time players take to make an impact on the major league level.
Here’s a very short video of Grant Green:
Effect of Days Rest on Reliever's Performance
Much is said about how many days rest a reliever is performing on. A closer could come into a game after pitching the day before, blow the save, and fans and the media will blame it on him pitching the previous game. Today we will see if there is any evidence to support that theory. The data we look at will be career ERAs of active pitchers with at least 100 career saves on given days of rest. There are thirty pitchers who fit this criteria. For pitchers such as John Smoltz who have both started and relieved, only the games in which they were used as a reliever were taken into account.
Here is the graph of ERA vs. Days Rest for these thirty pitchers:
As you can see, there is a definite trend between zero days rest and one day rest. In fact, 22 out of the 30 pitchers had lower ERAs on zero days of rest than on one day of rest. Further, the only two pitchers to have an ERA over 4.00 on zero days of rest were Joe Borowski and Antonio Alfonseca, both of whom have career ERAs over 4.00 as relievers. On the flip side, seven pitchers have ERAs over 4.00 on one day of rest. Overall, here are average ERAs on given days of rest among all of these pitchers (note that these are only averages of each pitchers’ ERA, not weighted averages):
Zero Days of Rest: 2.91
One Day of Rest: 3.28
Two Days of Rest: 3.24
Three Days of Rest: 3.32
Four Days of Rest: 3.01
The numbers show that pitchers perform best pitching immediately after pitching the day before. Obviously a manager cannot continuously put a pitcher out there day after day, but the fact still remains that a pitcher is best on no days of rest. After that, there is no general trend. The moral of the story is that there is not much to be said for worrying about how many days rest a reliever has when deciding whether or not to put him in the game.
Here is the graph of ERA vs. Days Rest for these thirty pitchers:
As you can see, there is a definite trend between zero days rest and one day rest. In fact, 22 out of the 30 pitchers had lower ERAs on zero days of rest than on one day of rest. Further, the only two pitchers to have an ERA over 4.00 on zero days of rest were Joe Borowski and Antonio Alfonseca, both of whom have career ERAs over 4.00 as relievers. On the flip side, seven pitchers have ERAs over 4.00 on one day of rest. Overall, here are average ERAs on given days of rest among all of these pitchers (note that these are only averages of each pitchers’ ERA, not weighted averages):
Zero Days of Rest: 2.91
One Day of Rest: 3.28
Two Days of Rest: 3.24
Three Days of Rest: 3.32
Four Days of Rest: 3.01
The numbers show that pitchers perform best pitching immediately after pitching the day before. Obviously a manager cannot continuously put a pitcher out there day after day, but the fact still remains that a pitcher is best on no days of rest. After that, there is no general trend. The moral of the story is that there is not much to be said for worrying about how many days rest a reliever has when deciding whether or not to put him in the game.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Thoughts on Nick Adenhart's Death
My apologies for writing an article that has no insight relating to baseball, fantasy baseball, or anything else that may be useful to you readers. Just a few musings on a horrible baseball-related event-
Upon hearing of the death of Nick Adenhart, I was first just really saddened that such a promising young career was cut so short. I read some more about him after hearing of his death, and he sounded like a really good kid. His death was a horrendous, atrocious, and devastating event, but for all the terrible things to be said about this event, some good has come out of it. It will no doubt lead to increased awareness about drunk driving, given the national scope of this case, as well as the touching scenario, a young kid pitches a great game, only to have his life cut short only hours later in a terrible accident. Another bit of good done by this tragic event is something that is more intangible. As many of you know, my good friend Steve Guilford is arguably the biggest Giants fan in the state of Illinois, if not the Midwest. As a result, he has absolutely not forgiven the Angels for the 2002 World Series, and in fact held on to the belief that the Giants actually won that world series, up until like last year. Steve hates everything about the Angels, wants to see John Lackey suffer a career ending injury, and might, given the chance, just eliminate them as a franchise alltogether. However when I texted Steve, telling him about the death of Adenhart, making sure to mention that he was an Angels pitcher, he responded "wow, that's horrible". My surprise at this response was significant, I was expecting something like "well he was on the Angels" or something like that. It led me to realize that events like this truly bring people together, regardless of previous allegiances. I was told today that Ryan Theriot was asked about Adenhart's death, and his response, being completely paraphrased here, was something to the effect of everyone has to go sometime, and there's no point in trying to hide from it, or something like that. I found that to be a very astute comment from such a young man, but he brings forth a valid point, there was nothing that Adenhart could have done to avoid such a freak accident, and apparently it was just his time to go. If nothing else, he certainly went out on top, after having one night of great success playing the game that he loves on a national stage in front of his father.
Upon hearing of the death of Nick Adenhart, I was first just really saddened that such a promising young career was cut so short. I read some more about him after hearing of his death, and he sounded like a really good kid. His death was a horrendous, atrocious, and devastating event, but for all the terrible things to be said about this event, some good has come out of it. It will no doubt lead to increased awareness about drunk driving, given the national scope of this case, as well as the touching scenario, a young kid pitches a great game, only to have his life cut short only hours later in a terrible accident. Another bit of good done by this tragic event is something that is more intangible. As many of you know, my good friend Steve Guilford is arguably the biggest Giants fan in the state of Illinois, if not the Midwest. As a result, he has absolutely not forgiven the Angels for the 2002 World Series, and in fact held on to the belief that the Giants actually won that world series, up until like last year. Steve hates everything about the Angels, wants to see John Lackey suffer a career ending injury, and might, given the chance, just eliminate them as a franchise alltogether. However when I texted Steve, telling him about the death of Adenhart, making sure to mention that he was an Angels pitcher, he responded "wow, that's horrible". My surprise at this response was significant, I was expecting something like "well he was on the Angels" or something like that. It led me to realize that events like this truly bring people together, regardless of previous allegiances. I was told today that Ryan Theriot was asked about Adenhart's death, and his response, being completely paraphrased here, was something to the effect of everyone has to go sometime, and there's no point in trying to hide from it, or something like that. I found that to be a very astute comment from such a young man, but he brings forth a valid point, there was nothing that Adenhart could have done to avoid such a freak accident, and apparently it was just his time to go. If nothing else, he certainly went out on top, after having one night of great success playing the game that he loves on a national stage in front of his father.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
AL West Preview
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Key Additions
The Angels' key addition was one to help fill their key loss, that being Fransisco Rodriguez. His replacement this season is Brian Fuentes. Fuentes will probably not get as many saves this year as K-Rod did last year, but he can be just as effective, as K-Rod's effectiveness was vastly overhyped and therefore is attainable. Fuentes just needs to save about 88-90% of his games to be about on par with K-Rod's performance last year as far as helping the Angels win the division.
Key Players
Joe Saunders-With John Lackey's injury that will keep him out through all of April, it is important that Joe Saunders steps up as the Angels' #1 starter. Saunders had a fine season last year, but has been doubted throughout the offseason. If he's able to silence the doubters and come up big early in the season, he can take a back seat to Lackey in Mid-May and cruise through the rest of the year.
Vladimir Guerrero- With Mark Teixeira leaving the Angels, it is very important for Vlad to pick up the slack and remain the hitter that he's been his entire career. This offseason it was revealed that Vlad is a year older than he claimed to be, which led a lot of people to doubt his ability to produce this year, but if the Angels want to maintain their stranglehold on this division he needs to come up big.
Player to Watch
Howie Kendrick- Kendrick has been described by many scouts as a future batting champion, and up to this point he has failed miserably to meet these expectations. He has shown signs of brilliance, but has thus far been mediocre. Look for a possible breakout year from Kedrick this season, as he's now had the maturity of several big league seasons.
Conclusion
There's really no reason to expect the Angels to relinquish their domination of this division, as there aren't any really legitimate challengers. Expect a relatively easy win for them in this division.
Oakland Athletics
Key Additions
By far the biggest addition for the A's has been Matt Holliday. Holliday is a beast of a hitter, and has been both at and away from Coors field. The A's badly needed a good middle of the lineup hitter, and rather uncharacteristically, went out and traded prospects for a big name superstar. Matt Holliday's performance in the first half of this season, as well as the A's performance as a whole, will decide whether he is shopped or not at the trade deadline.
Key Players
Matt Holliday- Already mentioned, Holliday is the A's big middle of the lineup hitter. He needs to produce quite a bit in order for the A's to challenge the Angels in this division, although he will have some help from Jason Giambi. Holliday's performance will largely decide whether he remains in Oakland all season.
Jason Giambi- The A's other big addition, Giambi will play a big part in their offense this season. After a couple of mediocre seasons, Giambi returned to old form somewhat last season, belting 32 HR and 96 RBI. If he can reproduce these numbers in the weak A's lineup, they will be able to compete, as their pitching, while very young, is certainly solid.
Player to Watch
Brett Anderson- Anderson is consistently ranked as a top 5 pitching prospect, and he will be able to prove or disprove this analysis early this season, as he is scheduled to be in their starting rotation from day 1. He was scheduled to start tonight, but the game has been postponed due to the dead of Nick Adenhart. Anderson has the potential to be this year's Tim Lincecum-esque pitcher, as his potential has been generally accepted to be limitless.
Conclusion
With good young pitching and a much improved lineup, the A's may be able to compete this season, but they will certainly be competing for years to come if their pitchers are able to develop effectively into the future aces that many of them are projected to be.
Texas Rangers
Key Additions
The Rangers only addition of note was Omar Vizquel, who is literally double the age of their other shortstop, Elvis Andrus.
Key Players
Josh Hamilton- No story is as good as the story of Josh Hamilton. I'm sure you've all heard it 800 times, so I won't bother telling it, but in any case, the bottom line is that Hamilton needs to produce in the middle of this lineup if the Rangers want a snowball's chance in hell of winning this division. Hamilton's season last year was beastly, but he really started to shut it down come September. Hamilton needs to produce all season this year to give the Rangers a chance.
Kevin Millwood- Millwood is the Rangers "ace", if there is such a thing in that ballpark. Millwood needs to work on his consistency, as well as his ability to pitch, in order to stabilize this rotation that deals with the massive handicap of pitching in a little league ballpark. If their #1 starter can go pitch a quality start 75-80% of the time, it gives the rest of the rotation, as well as the bullpen, a chance to lessen their load quite a bit.
Player to Watch
Elvis Andrus- Andrus came over in the Mark Teixeira Braves trade, and the Rangers have moved Michael Young from SS to 3B to make room for the 20 year old SS. Andrus has started the season off well, and is said to certainly be the SS of the future for the Rangers. He will undoubtedly learn an incredible amount from Omar Vizquel, who has been playing SS since shortly before the Vietnam War. Andrus may very well have a breakout season this year and possibly win AL ROY.
Conclusion
The Rangers, simply put, need to score 8 runs a game to stand a chance in this division. Their pitching is terrible, and is made even worse by their ballpark, and until they start to play their games in a legitimate park, they will have a very hard time developing anything that resembles a pitching staff.
Seattle Mariners
Key Additions
The biggest addition for the Mariners was Ken Griffey Jr., who at this point of his career should not be terribly effective. The Mariners also lack much in terms of outfield prospects that can learn from Griffey, so its safe to say that his signing was mainly just to let the old man ride out into the sunset at the same place that he exploded onto the national scene two decades ago.
Key Players
Felix Hernandez- My pick for the AL Cy Young Award, King Felix needs to dominate at the top of this rotation. If Felix is able to pitch to his potential, and Erik Bedard is able to avoid any freak accidents, the Mariners may be able to compete for this division. It all starts with Felix' ability to remain consistent. He tends to be rather streaky, shutting out opponents for several starts then getting shelled or injured, so he just needs to be more of a consistent #1 starter if they want to compete.
Erik Bedard- The Mariners don't have any legitimate hitters not named Ichiro, so their 2nd key player is their #2 starter. If Bedard remains healthy this entire season, he will probably be one of the top #2 starters in baseball. He was able to dominate consistently in 2007, with a 3.17 ERA in 182 innings, and last year he was effective when he did pitch, with a 3.67. If he can put together a 200+ inning season, the Mariners will have an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.
Player to Watch
There is honestly not a single young player of any merit on this team. I guess Mike Tuiasosopo has some potential, but the Mariners are just horrendous as far as having any young players that aren't named Felix Hernandez, who many forget is only 23. I guess watch Felix Hernandez as often as possible.
Conclusion
This team needs a miracle to compete for the division. If Felix and Erik Bedard both win 20 games, and Jarrod Washburn is a solid #3, then the rest may work itself out and this team should win 80-85 games. But that's certainly asking an incredible amount from 3 pitchers, 1 of which is very young, 1 of which is very injury prone, and one of which isn't very good. If those 3 all pitch well they might compete, but don't expect anything out of this dying franchise.
Key Additions
The Angels' key addition was one to help fill their key loss, that being Fransisco Rodriguez. His replacement this season is Brian Fuentes. Fuentes will probably not get as many saves this year as K-Rod did last year, but he can be just as effective, as K-Rod's effectiveness was vastly overhyped and therefore is attainable. Fuentes just needs to save about 88-90% of his games to be about on par with K-Rod's performance last year as far as helping the Angels win the division.
Key Players
Joe Saunders-With John Lackey's injury that will keep him out through all of April, it is important that Joe Saunders steps up as the Angels' #1 starter. Saunders had a fine season last year, but has been doubted throughout the offseason. If he's able to silence the doubters and come up big early in the season, he can take a back seat to Lackey in Mid-May and cruise through the rest of the year.
Vladimir Guerrero- With Mark Teixeira leaving the Angels, it is very important for Vlad to pick up the slack and remain the hitter that he's been his entire career. This offseason it was revealed that Vlad is a year older than he claimed to be, which led a lot of people to doubt his ability to produce this year, but if the Angels want to maintain their stranglehold on this division he needs to come up big.
Player to Watch
Howie Kendrick- Kendrick has been described by many scouts as a future batting champion, and up to this point he has failed miserably to meet these expectations. He has shown signs of brilliance, but has thus far been mediocre. Look for a possible breakout year from Kedrick this season, as he's now had the maturity of several big league seasons.
Conclusion
There's really no reason to expect the Angels to relinquish their domination of this division, as there aren't any really legitimate challengers. Expect a relatively easy win for them in this division.
Oakland Athletics
Key Additions
By far the biggest addition for the A's has been Matt Holliday. Holliday is a beast of a hitter, and has been both at and away from Coors field. The A's badly needed a good middle of the lineup hitter, and rather uncharacteristically, went out and traded prospects for a big name superstar. Matt Holliday's performance in the first half of this season, as well as the A's performance as a whole, will decide whether he is shopped or not at the trade deadline.
Key Players
Matt Holliday- Already mentioned, Holliday is the A's big middle of the lineup hitter. He needs to produce quite a bit in order for the A's to challenge the Angels in this division, although he will have some help from Jason Giambi. Holliday's performance will largely decide whether he remains in Oakland all season.
Jason Giambi- The A's other big addition, Giambi will play a big part in their offense this season. After a couple of mediocre seasons, Giambi returned to old form somewhat last season, belting 32 HR and 96 RBI. If he can reproduce these numbers in the weak A's lineup, they will be able to compete, as their pitching, while very young, is certainly solid.
Player to Watch
Brett Anderson- Anderson is consistently ranked as a top 5 pitching prospect, and he will be able to prove or disprove this analysis early this season, as he is scheduled to be in their starting rotation from day 1. He was scheduled to start tonight, but the game has been postponed due to the dead of Nick Adenhart. Anderson has the potential to be this year's Tim Lincecum-esque pitcher, as his potential has been generally accepted to be limitless.
Conclusion
With good young pitching and a much improved lineup, the A's may be able to compete this season, but they will certainly be competing for years to come if their pitchers are able to develop effectively into the future aces that many of them are projected to be.
Texas Rangers
Key Additions
The Rangers only addition of note was Omar Vizquel, who is literally double the age of their other shortstop, Elvis Andrus.
Key Players
Josh Hamilton- No story is as good as the story of Josh Hamilton. I'm sure you've all heard it 800 times, so I won't bother telling it, but in any case, the bottom line is that Hamilton needs to produce in the middle of this lineup if the Rangers want a snowball's chance in hell of winning this division. Hamilton's season last year was beastly, but he really started to shut it down come September. Hamilton needs to produce all season this year to give the Rangers a chance.
Kevin Millwood- Millwood is the Rangers "ace", if there is such a thing in that ballpark. Millwood needs to work on his consistency, as well as his ability to pitch, in order to stabilize this rotation that deals with the massive handicap of pitching in a little league ballpark. If their #1 starter can go pitch a quality start 75-80% of the time, it gives the rest of the rotation, as well as the bullpen, a chance to lessen their load quite a bit.
Player to Watch
Elvis Andrus- Andrus came over in the Mark Teixeira Braves trade, and the Rangers have moved Michael Young from SS to 3B to make room for the 20 year old SS. Andrus has started the season off well, and is said to certainly be the SS of the future for the Rangers. He will undoubtedly learn an incredible amount from Omar Vizquel, who has been playing SS since shortly before the Vietnam War. Andrus may very well have a breakout season this year and possibly win AL ROY.
Conclusion
The Rangers, simply put, need to score 8 runs a game to stand a chance in this division. Their pitching is terrible, and is made even worse by their ballpark, and until they start to play their games in a legitimate park, they will have a very hard time developing anything that resembles a pitching staff.
Seattle Mariners
Key Additions
The biggest addition for the Mariners was Ken Griffey Jr., who at this point of his career should not be terribly effective. The Mariners also lack much in terms of outfield prospects that can learn from Griffey, so its safe to say that his signing was mainly just to let the old man ride out into the sunset at the same place that he exploded onto the national scene two decades ago.
Key Players
Felix Hernandez- My pick for the AL Cy Young Award, King Felix needs to dominate at the top of this rotation. If Felix is able to pitch to his potential, and Erik Bedard is able to avoid any freak accidents, the Mariners may be able to compete for this division. It all starts with Felix' ability to remain consistent. He tends to be rather streaky, shutting out opponents for several starts then getting shelled or injured, so he just needs to be more of a consistent #1 starter if they want to compete.
Erik Bedard- The Mariners don't have any legitimate hitters not named Ichiro, so their 2nd key player is their #2 starter. If Bedard remains healthy this entire season, he will probably be one of the top #2 starters in baseball. He was able to dominate consistently in 2007, with a 3.17 ERA in 182 innings, and last year he was effective when he did pitch, with a 3.67. If he can put together a 200+ inning season, the Mariners will have an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.
Player to Watch
There is honestly not a single young player of any merit on this team. I guess Mike Tuiasosopo has some potential, but the Mariners are just horrendous as far as having any young players that aren't named Felix Hernandez, who many forget is only 23. I guess watch Felix Hernandez as often as possible.
Conclusion
This team needs a miracle to compete for the division. If Felix and Erik Bedard both win 20 games, and Jarrod Washburn is a solid #3, then the rest may work itself out and this team should win 80-85 games. But that's certainly asking an incredible amount from 3 pitchers, 1 of which is very young, 1 of which is very injury prone, and one of which isn't very good. If those 3 all pitch well they might compete, but don't expect anything out of this dying franchise.
Monday, April 6, 2009
2009 NL West Preview
For the love of God my apologies for the lateness, i was taken down by the flu this past weekend and couldn't write. enjoy, written in order of projected finish.
San Fransisco Giants
Key Additions
The key addition this offseason to the Giants was without question Randy Johnson. The Giants have one of the best young rotations in baseball, with Jonathon Sanchez, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain all having impressive big-league resumes for such young pitchers. It was very important for the Giants to bring in a wily veteran who will be able to anchor this staff of youngsters and teach them some of the wealth of knowledge that he has learned over his long career. Johnson's major value with the Giants will come in his ability to tutor their young staff, but that is not to say that his on-the-field production will be nil, quite the contrary he may prove to be very productive in the weak hitting NL West.
Key Players
Tim Lincecum-The reigning Cy Young award winner and incumbent ace to one of the most impressive young staffs in baseball, Tim Lincecum will have enormous expectations coming into this season. Lincecum dominated last season, and the team's record showed it. In Lincecum's appearances, the Giants were 22-12, for a .647 win percentage, wheras in games that Lincecum did not appear, the Giants were 50-78, or a .391 win percentage. If Lincecum can have another Cy Young caliber season, expect the Giants to be serious contenders.
Pablo Sandoval- Pablo Sandoval is the Giants young catcher/3rd baseman who is heralded as some of the much-needed offensive relief that the Giants are expecting from their farm system. Sandoval is 37/81 so far this spring (a .457 BA) with 18 RBI, 3 HR, and 10 R. Sandoval also won the Venezuelan home run derby over the offseason. As a side note, Carlos Zambrano also entered said derby (that is not a lie). If Sandoval can come up to the big leagues and give the offense some much needed assistance (currently their best hitter is probably either Bengie Molina or Aaron Rowand) then the Giants can certainly compete for the NL West.
Player to Watch
Matt Cain has steadily improved his ERA, K's, and BB rate since his first full season in the majors in 2006. Despite his career record of 30-41, Cain's career ERA is 3.80, with a WHIP of 1.27. Cain needs to get over the psychological devestation of getting an average of 1 run per 3 starts (not really, but his run support is miserable) and continue to progress as a young pitcher, specifically with the aid of Randy Johnson, he will certainly make a fine #2 starter to the young ace Tim Lincecum.
Conclusion
Frankly I think that the San Francisco Giants will win the NL West due to their excellent pitching staff and improving hitting. The weak NL West should only offer the Dodgers as serious competition, due to the D'Backs hitting inadequacies, and I don't think that the Dodgers pitching will be able to hold together after the loss of Derek Lowe and the injury concerns to Chad Billingsley, and especially with the youth and big league inexperience of Clayton Kershaw. Expect the Giants to have the division won sometime in mid december.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key Additions
While this is not necessarily a key addition, the key retention for the Dodgers is no one other than Manfred Ramirez. The Most Electrifying Man in Sports Entertainment since the Rock, Manny Ramirez will be without question the most important player in the NL West to any single team. Manny at the center of this offense turns a mediocre team into a legitimate contender, and it was essentially a move out of necessity that the Dodgers kept him, as a lineup without him is simply devastating.
Key Players
Chad Billingsley- It is sometimes easy to forget that Chad Billingsley is only 24 years old. Billingsley was the #2 starter on the Dodgers last season behind the incredibly consistent Derek Lowe. This year with his departure, the young (and possibly injured) Billingsley becomes the #1 starter. If he can take this added pressure and flourish in it, then he will help stabilize a rotation that has lost a lot of production this offseason, and if he can't handle the pressure, it should be a very long season for the Dodgers.
Manny Ramirez- I'm sure you're all very sick of hearing about Manny, but there's just no arguing the fact that he's the most important player on this roster. As Manny goes, essentially so does the Dodgers offense, and he is therefore without question the key offensive player on this team.
Player to Watch
Clayton Kershaw- Last season the Dodgers had a secure rotation, with the solid veteran Lowe at the top, the youngster Billingsley as #2, and Hiroki Kuroda at #3. This season, they have Billinglsey thrown into the #1 spot, Kuroda at 2, and Kershaw being thrown in at 3. It is incredibly important that Kershaw produces effectively, otherwise the entire rotation will be thrown off quite a bit.
Conclusion
As iffy as the Dodgers rotation will be this season, I still think their offense is good enough to get them 2nd in the division. If they intend on winning the division, they need both Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw to do pretty well.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Key Additions
Frankly, the Diamondbacks didn't make any significant additions, and the only player they lost was Brandon Lyon.
Key Players
Eric Byrnes- Byrnes signed a large contract after the 2007 season, a season that saw him bat .286 with 50 SB, 21 HR, 83 RBIs, and 103 R. Last season Byrnes played only 52 games, and batted .209 with 6 HR and 23 RBI. If the D'Backs want to succeed this season, they will need a healthy team leader in Eric Byrnes to help guide their team of young hitters.
Dan Haren- Haren is a consistent pitcher, and has some level of protection being the #2 starter behind perrenial ace Brandon Webb. Haren needs to produce significantly if the Diamondbacks want to win the division, as very good production from both Webb and Haren may be enough to beat out the Giants strong rotation.
Player to Watch
Max Scherzer-Many of you may remember Scherzer from his major league debut, when he pitched 4 1/3 perfect innings of relief, striking out 7 Astros. While he will be starting the season on the DL, he will most certainly make some noise when he comes back to the team.
Conclusion
The D'Backs have a lot of questions in their young lineup, and in their rotation after the #2 starter. If they're lucky they should be able to hold 3rd in the division, but if the Rockies start to get hot they may be able to take 3rd from them.
Colorado Rockies
Key Additions
Huston Street- Huston Street's numbers have steadily been on the decline since his incredible rookie season, but he is still nonetheless an important addition for the Rockies, especially with the loss of Brian Fuentes. Street will help bolster the Rockies' bullpen, and is expected to be the closer ahead of Manny Corpas. Look for him to play a key role in a losing campaign for the Rockies.
Key Players
Troy Tulowitzki-After a beastly rookie campaign, Tulowitzki faltered last year, batting only .263 with 8 HR and 46 RBI. It was apparent last season, however, that Tulowitzki got back into some kind of a groove late in the year, batting .330 in September with 3 HR and 14 RBI. It should be very interesting to see if Tulo comes back to his All-Star level, or if he continues to struggle without the lineup protection of Matt Holliday.
Player to Watch
Chris Iannetta- I'm going to be honest, I know very little about Chris Iannetta. The Cather position is one that fails to interest me particularly much, and I therefore lack knowledge of different catchers, but I've heard from a lot of people and news sources that Iannetta is a player to watch for this season, and his numbers seem to merit this. Last season he hit 18 HR and drove in 65 in only 104 games, so its certainly plausible that if he can play about 145 games, he can hit 25 HR and drive in 90-100, which is really impressive for such a young (25) player.
Conclusion
Without Matt Holliday, and without much in terms of pitching, the Rockies will get a 4th place finish at best, with a small but realistic chance that they slip to #5 in the division behind the pitiful Padres.
San Diego Padres
Key Additions
None, they added Duaner Sanchez and Henry Blanco. This team is so bad that even if they added Albert Pujols, it wouldn't be that key because it would improve them to a 70 win team.
Key Players
Jake Peavy- The only respectable pitcher on the Padres' staff (you can make an argument for Chris Young, but he has looked atrocious in spring training, with a fastball reaching 83 MPH). Peavy might be able to pull off a winning record this season if he keeps his ERA below 2.50, but even that's a stretch.
Hadrian's Wall Gonzalez- A decent fantasy steal for me no doubt, and the best offensive player on the most pathetic offensive team this side of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Player to Watch
I'm going to keep this relatively brief, there are like 3 players on this team worth watching. The most interesting will be Jake Peavy, as there will undoubtedly be trade rumors circling around him all season, so keep an eye on what he does, as his performance will certainly affect his trade circumstances.
Conclusion
This team has a legitimate chance of contending for the prestigious Worst Team of All Time title, a title currently held by that one Detroit Tigers team that lost like 120 games in 2003 or so.
San Fransisco Giants
Key Additions
The key addition this offseason to the Giants was without question Randy Johnson. The Giants have one of the best young rotations in baseball, with Jonathon Sanchez, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain all having impressive big-league resumes for such young pitchers. It was very important for the Giants to bring in a wily veteran who will be able to anchor this staff of youngsters and teach them some of the wealth of knowledge that he has learned over his long career. Johnson's major value with the Giants will come in his ability to tutor their young staff, but that is not to say that his on-the-field production will be nil, quite the contrary he may prove to be very productive in the weak hitting NL West.
Key Players
Tim Lincecum-The reigning Cy Young award winner and incumbent ace to one of the most impressive young staffs in baseball, Tim Lincecum will have enormous expectations coming into this season. Lincecum dominated last season, and the team's record showed it. In Lincecum's appearances, the Giants were 22-12, for a .647 win percentage, wheras in games that Lincecum did not appear, the Giants were 50-78, or a .391 win percentage. If Lincecum can have another Cy Young caliber season, expect the Giants to be serious contenders.
Pablo Sandoval- Pablo Sandoval is the Giants young catcher/3rd baseman who is heralded as some of the much-needed offensive relief that the Giants are expecting from their farm system. Sandoval is 37/81 so far this spring (a .457 BA) with 18 RBI, 3 HR, and 10 R. Sandoval also won the Venezuelan home run derby over the offseason. As a side note, Carlos Zambrano also entered said derby (that is not a lie). If Sandoval can come up to the big leagues and give the offense some much needed assistance (currently their best hitter is probably either Bengie Molina or Aaron Rowand) then the Giants can certainly compete for the NL West.
Player to Watch
Matt Cain has steadily improved his ERA, K's, and BB rate since his first full season in the majors in 2006. Despite his career record of 30-41, Cain's career ERA is 3.80, with a WHIP of 1.27. Cain needs to get over the psychological devestation of getting an average of 1 run per 3 starts (not really, but his run support is miserable) and continue to progress as a young pitcher, specifically with the aid of Randy Johnson, he will certainly make a fine #2 starter to the young ace Tim Lincecum.
Conclusion
Frankly I think that the San Francisco Giants will win the NL West due to their excellent pitching staff and improving hitting. The weak NL West should only offer the Dodgers as serious competition, due to the D'Backs hitting inadequacies, and I don't think that the Dodgers pitching will be able to hold together after the loss of Derek Lowe and the injury concerns to Chad Billingsley, and especially with the youth and big league inexperience of Clayton Kershaw. Expect the Giants to have the division won sometime in mid december.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key Additions
While this is not necessarily a key addition, the key retention for the Dodgers is no one other than Manfred Ramirez. The Most Electrifying Man in Sports Entertainment since the Rock, Manny Ramirez will be without question the most important player in the NL West to any single team. Manny at the center of this offense turns a mediocre team into a legitimate contender, and it was essentially a move out of necessity that the Dodgers kept him, as a lineup without him is simply devastating.
Key Players
Chad Billingsley- It is sometimes easy to forget that Chad Billingsley is only 24 years old. Billingsley was the #2 starter on the Dodgers last season behind the incredibly consistent Derek Lowe. This year with his departure, the young (and possibly injured) Billingsley becomes the #1 starter. If he can take this added pressure and flourish in it, then he will help stabilize a rotation that has lost a lot of production this offseason, and if he can't handle the pressure, it should be a very long season for the Dodgers.
Manny Ramirez- I'm sure you're all very sick of hearing about Manny, but there's just no arguing the fact that he's the most important player on this roster. As Manny goes, essentially so does the Dodgers offense, and he is therefore without question the key offensive player on this team.
Player to Watch
Clayton Kershaw- Last season the Dodgers had a secure rotation, with the solid veteran Lowe at the top, the youngster Billingsley as #2, and Hiroki Kuroda at #3. This season, they have Billinglsey thrown into the #1 spot, Kuroda at 2, and Kershaw being thrown in at 3. It is incredibly important that Kershaw produces effectively, otherwise the entire rotation will be thrown off quite a bit.
Conclusion
As iffy as the Dodgers rotation will be this season, I still think their offense is good enough to get them 2nd in the division. If they intend on winning the division, they need both Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw to do pretty well.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Key Additions
Frankly, the Diamondbacks didn't make any significant additions, and the only player they lost was Brandon Lyon.
Key Players
Eric Byrnes- Byrnes signed a large contract after the 2007 season, a season that saw him bat .286 with 50 SB, 21 HR, 83 RBIs, and 103 R. Last season Byrnes played only 52 games, and batted .209 with 6 HR and 23 RBI. If the D'Backs want to succeed this season, they will need a healthy team leader in Eric Byrnes to help guide their team of young hitters.
Dan Haren- Haren is a consistent pitcher, and has some level of protection being the #2 starter behind perrenial ace Brandon Webb. Haren needs to produce significantly if the Diamondbacks want to win the division, as very good production from both Webb and Haren may be enough to beat out the Giants strong rotation.
Player to Watch
Max Scherzer-Many of you may remember Scherzer from his major league debut, when he pitched 4 1/3 perfect innings of relief, striking out 7 Astros. While he will be starting the season on the DL, he will most certainly make some noise when he comes back to the team.
Conclusion
The D'Backs have a lot of questions in their young lineup, and in their rotation after the #2 starter. If they're lucky they should be able to hold 3rd in the division, but if the Rockies start to get hot they may be able to take 3rd from them.
Colorado Rockies
Key Additions
Huston Street- Huston Street's numbers have steadily been on the decline since his incredible rookie season, but he is still nonetheless an important addition for the Rockies, especially with the loss of Brian Fuentes. Street will help bolster the Rockies' bullpen, and is expected to be the closer ahead of Manny Corpas. Look for him to play a key role in a losing campaign for the Rockies.
Key Players
Troy Tulowitzki-After a beastly rookie campaign, Tulowitzki faltered last year, batting only .263 with 8 HR and 46 RBI. It was apparent last season, however, that Tulowitzki got back into some kind of a groove late in the year, batting .330 in September with 3 HR and 14 RBI. It should be very interesting to see if Tulo comes back to his All-Star level, or if he continues to struggle without the lineup protection of Matt Holliday.
Player to Watch
Chris Iannetta- I'm going to be honest, I know very little about Chris Iannetta. The Cather position is one that fails to interest me particularly much, and I therefore lack knowledge of different catchers, but I've heard from a lot of people and news sources that Iannetta is a player to watch for this season, and his numbers seem to merit this. Last season he hit 18 HR and drove in 65 in only 104 games, so its certainly plausible that if he can play about 145 games, he can hit 25 HR and drive in 90-100, which is really impressive for such a young (25) player.
Conclusion
Without Matt Holliday, and without much in terms of pitching, the Rockies will get a 4th place finish at best, with a small but realistic chance that they slip to #5 in the division behind the pitiful Padres.
San Diego Padres
Key Additions
None, they added Duaner Sanchez and Henry Blanco. This team is so bad that even if they added Albert Pujols, it wouldn't be that key because it would improve them to a 70 win team.
Key Players
Jake Peavy- The only respectable pitcher on the Padres' staff (you can make an argument for Chris Young, but he has looked atrocious in spring training, with a fastball reaching 83 MPH). Peavy might be able to pull off a winning record this season if he keeps his ERA below 2.50, but even that's a stretch.
Hadrian's Wall Gonzalez- A decent fantasy steal for me no doubt, and the best offensive player on the most pathetic offensive team this side of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Player to Watch
I'm going to keep this relatively brief, there are like 3 players on this team worth watching. The most interesting will be Jake Peavy, as there will undoubtedly be trade rumors circling around him all season, so keep an eye on what he does, as his performance will certainly affect his trade circumstances.
Conclusion
This team has a legitimate chance of contending for the prestigious Worst Team of All Time title, a title currently held by that one Detroit Tigers team that lost like 120 games in 2003 or so.
MLB 2009 Division/Playoff Predictions and the 2 MVPs that were promised like last week
American League East
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Toronto Canadians
American League Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Injuns
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Lions at 0-162
American League West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Oakland Athletics
Texas Chuck Norris
Seattle Mariners
National League East
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals, who will pick up Joe Biden after the all star break and start him in place of Dmitri Young, who will be out due to gastric bypass
National League Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
National League West
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres, who may forfeit their remaining games after entering the allstar break 20-75
Playoffs
Division Series
Cubs over Marlins, Giants over Mets
Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over Angels
LCS
Cubs over Giants
Yankees over Red Sox
Cubs over Yankees
In a matchup of 2 of the oldest franchises in the sport, the Cubs will triumph over the evil empire, vanquishing the Steinbrenners and causing them to sign Albert Pujols over from the Cardinals for a 10 year, $1 Billion deal that will ultimately lead to Pujols purchasing the country of Togo, appointing Emmanuel Adebayor president, and renaming it something original and unexpected like "Albert Pujols Land".
MVPs:
AL: Mark Teixeira
NL: Hanley Ramirez
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Toronto Canadians
American League Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Injuns
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Lions at 0-162
American League West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Oakland Athletics
Texas Chuck Norris
Seattle Mariners
National League East
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals, who will pick up Joe Biden after the all star break and start him in place of Dmitri Young, who will be out due to gastric bypass
National League Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
National League West
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres, who may forfeit their remaining games after entering the allstar break 20-75
Playoffs
Division Series
Cubs over Marlins, Giants over Mets
Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over Angels
LCS
Cubs over Giants
Yankees over Red Sox
Cubs over Yankees
In a matchup of 2 of the oldest franchises in the sport, the Cubs will triumph over the evil empire, vanquishing the Steinbrenners and causing them to sign Albert Pujols over from the Cardinals for a 10 year, $1 Billion deal that will ultimately lead to Pujols purchasing the country of Togo, appointing Emmanuel Adebayor president, and renaming it something original and unexpected like "Albert Pujols Land".
MVPs:
AL: Mark Teixeira
NL: Hanley Ramirez
Sunday, April 5, 2009
2009 MLB Predictions
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays (Changed from my preview section)
Boston Red Sox*
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
AL West
Oakland A’s
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County, by Disneyland in California
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies*
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh PIrates
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Division Series:
AL: White Sox over Rays, Red Sox over A’s
NL: Cubs over Phillies, Dodgers over Mets
League Championship Series:
AL: White Sox over Red Sox
NL: Dodgers over Cubs
World Series:
Dodgers over White Sox
In a rematch of the 1959 World Series, the Dodgers will again beat the White Sox. The White Sox just don’t have enough talent offensively to compete with the Dodgers who are faster, younger, and more athletic than the logjam of Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye.
Tampa Bay Rays (Changed from my preview section)
Boston Red Sox*
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
AL West
Oakland A’s
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County, by Disneyland in California
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies*
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh PIrates
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Division Series:
AL: White Sox over Rays, Red Sox over A’s
NL: Cubs over Phillies, Dodgers over Mets
League Championship Series:
AL: White Sox over Red Sox
NL: Dodgers over Cubs
World Series:
Dodgers over White Sox
In a rematch of the 1959 World Series, the Dodgers will again beat the White Sox. The White Sox just don’t have enough talent offensively to compete with the Dodgers who are faster, younger, and more athletic than the logjam of Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye.
Divisional and Playoff Predictions
AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
AL East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays*
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies*
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
NLDS
Chicago Cubs over Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers
ALDS
Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins
NLCS
Chicago Cubs over New York Mets
ALCS
Los Angeles Angels over New York Yankees
World Series
Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Angels
The Cubs have won the NL Central the past two years and are only getting better. The addition of Milton Bradley to the middle of the lineup will be huge, as it gives the Cubs the left-handed bat that they need. The Cubs have been devastated in the playoffs the past two years and should be able to use that disappointment to come back stronger this year.
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
AL East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays*
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies*
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
NLDS
Chicago Cubs over Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers
ALDS
Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins
NLCS
Chicago Cubs over New York Mets
ALCS
Los Angeles Angels over New York Yankees
World Series
Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Angels
The Cubs have won the NL Central the past two years and are only getting better. The addition of Milton Bradley to the middle of the lineup will be huge, as it gives the Cubs the left-handed bat that they need. The Cubs have been devastated in the playoffs the past two years and should be able to use that disappointment to come back stronger this year.
2009 NL Central Preview
Chicago Cubs
Key Addition: Milton Bradley
The Cubs are the defending NL Central champs, but again flopped in the Division Series. The front office wanted to target a left-handed power hitter to give pitchers a different look at the Cubs’ lineup. Add that need to the fact that Kosuke Fukudome struggled last season, right field became the position the Cubs were looking to fill, and Milton Bradley fits. When healthy, Bradley will likely produce 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. The problem has been that Bradley can’t stay healthy. Bradley was able to play in 126 games for the Texas Rangers last year but that was out the Designated Hitter role, not an actual position. If Bradley can stay healthy, look for big things from the Cubs not only in the regular season, but also the playoffs.
Key Player: Ryan Dempster
Dempster put up a career year for the Cubs last season when he posted 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA. If Dempster can put up similar numbers to last season he will give the Cubs one of the strongest rotations in baseball. If Dempster can put up those numbers from the fourth spot in the rotation it could certainly put a lid on the rumors of bring Jake Peavy to the North Side.
Player to Watch: Mike Fontenot
Fontenot will be the everyday second baseman with the departure of Mark DeRosa. Fontenot won’t need to make a huge impact offensively for the Cubs as they already have a dangerous lineup. With no pressure on him to perform, he could thrive at the bottom of the order by getting on base and being a second leadoff hitter for the Cubs to give Alfonso Soriano more RBI opportunities out of the leadoff spot.
Conclusion
The only question mark the Cubs face is in center field, can Fukudome perform like he was anticipated to when he signed last year, or can Reed Johnson handle center field everyday? The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, as long as injuries are avoided from players like Bradley and Rich Harden, the Cubs will not only run away with the NL Central but could also make a run deep in October.
Cincinnati Reds
Key Addition: Willy Taveras
Taveras was waived the Colorado Rockies this off-season and the Reds swooped in and signed him. Taveras will give the Reds another lead off option to Brandon Phillips. The Reds may want to use Phillips’ power potential down in the order or just move him to second in the order. If Taveras can get on base, he will give the Reds a legitimate 50-steal threat at the top of the order. That speed will wreak havoc on opposing pitchers a lot like Scott Podsednik for the 2005 Chicago White Sox.
Key Players: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce
With the departures of Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn, Votto and Bruce become the faces of the Reds franchise. They will be staples in the middle of the lineup for years to come in Cincinnati. With that amount of pressure on their shoulders, they need to be able to weather that and still perform up to their talent levels if the Reds want a chance to compete for the NL Central crown.
Player to Watch: Aaron Harang
There is no sugar coding the fact that Aaron Harang had a miserable season last year. He won all of six games last season, which is the least since his first two seasons in the majors. The Reds still have faith in him and he should be able to rebound and perform like he did the previous four seasons where he won double digit games each of those seasons and held an ERA under four in three of those four seasons. If Harang goes back to his normal self, it will also take a lot of pressure off of Edison Volquez and allow him to focus on just pitching and not worrying about being the Ace of the rotation.
Conclusion
The Reds are a team that could be like the Rays last season. They have very good pitching and an offense that can be real dangerous. If the Cubs suffer serious injuries, don’t be surprised to see the Reds taking the NL Central.
St. Louis Cardinals
Key Addition: Khalil Greene
Cesar Izturis, who had a devastating season for the Cardinals, held shortstop last season. Greene will provide the Cardinals a much better option at shortstop, and could have the best season of his career this year. He is getting out of Petco Park which is a hitter’s nightmare and will get to hit at fairly hitter friendly Busch Stadium. Greene could hit between 15-20 home runs for the Cardinals and drive in 70 runs, which will be greatly welcomed from any shortstop but even more so after Izturis hit only one home run and drove in only 24 runs last season.
Key Player: Chris Carpenter
Carpenter has pitched in a combined five games the past two seasons due to having Tommy John Surgery in 2007. The Cardinals hope to get a healthy Carpenter, and if he is healthy he can help sure up the rotation for the Cardinals by winning around 15 games.
Player to Watch: Colby Rasmus
Rasmus will probably be the fourth outfielder for the Cardinals this season but if he gets the opportunity don’t be surprised if he gets a lot of at bats this season. He is a promising prospect who can give the Cardinals double-digit steals and double-digit home runs. If an injury occurs in the St. Louis outfield look for Rasmus to step in and possibly not give up that position.
Conclusion
The offense is in place; the bullpen and the rotation however, are the question marks heading into the season. If the pitching is there, the Cardinals can compete with the Cubs in 2009.
Milwaukee Brewers
Key Addition: Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman is the key addition by default because the Brewers lost more than they gained this off-season. Hoffman, while in the twilight of his career still will give the Brewers a closer to rely on, when he is healthy.
Key Player: Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo steps into the number one slot in the Brewers’ rotation due to the exits of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Gallardo tore his ACL at the beginning of the season last year but was able to come back at the very end and pitched in a few innings but pitched effectively (ERA of 1.88 for his 4 starts last season). If the Brewers have any hope in contending they need Gallardo to step up and be the Ace of their rotation.
Player to Watch: Corey Hart
Hart entered 2008 as can’t miss player and performed early hitting 15 home runs and stealing 13 bases in the first half. But an injury limited him in the second half to 5 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Look for Hart to perform like the first half last season and play a huge role for the Brewers’ offense this season.
Conclusion
The Brewers lost a lot when they lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets and didn't do much to replace those starters. Their offense will allow them to contend but baseball is a game that comes down to pitching and the Brewers just don’t have enough to contend this season.
Houston Astros
Key Addition: Ivan Rodriguez
This was a late addition for the Astros, finalized just a few weeks ago after Rodriguez’ performance in the World Baseball Classic. Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence for the clubhouse and help pitchers to develop further while providing pretty good offensive numbers.
Key Player: Mike Hampton
Hampton cannot stay healthy; there just is nothing around this fact. If Hampton can step up and start at least 15 games, the Astros should be grateful. If he can start more than 15 games, he might put together a great season for the Astros out of the third slot in the rotation.
Player to Watch: Michael Bourn
Bourn turned 27 in December, which is generally the time that players develop into their full potential. Bourn has an insane amount of speed that can get him 50 steals a season, but he needs to get on base more to display his speed (career OBP of .299). Bourn has the ability to be for the Astros what Willy Taveras was to them in 2005 when they made the World Series.
Conclusion
The Astros have too many question marks heading into the season. The only sure things are that Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee will have solid years, and Hunter Pence will continue to develop into a star.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Addition: No one
The Pirates have successfully made themselves worse than last year by not signing or bringing in anyone of any significance.
Key Player: Nate McLouth
McLouth is the best player on the potentially worst team in the majors. He is a 20-20-threat guy and the main reason for Pirates fans to come to PNC Park to watch this team.
Players to Watch: Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss
Moss came from the Jason Bay trade last summer and is a promising prospect for the Pirates. Moss displays speed and power, and if he can cut down on his strikeouts he could become a solid contributor for the Pirates. The addition of LaRoche brings the LaRoche brothers together to man the corners of the Pirates infield. LaRoche brings a decent amount of speed and a little power too. He hits for a good average and gets on base at a very good rate; he could be a very good potential 2-hole hitter if he continues to perform at this rate.
Conclusion
The Pirates are terrible and won’t contend.
Key Addition: Milton Bradley
The Cubs are the defending NL Central champs, but again flopped in the Division Series. The front office wanted to target a left-handed power hitter to give pitchers a different look at the Cubs’ lineup. Add that need to the fact that Kosuke Fukudome struggled last season, right field became the position the Cubs were looking to fill, and Milton Bradley fits. When healthy, Bradley will likely produce 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. The problem has been that Bradley can’t stay healthy. Bradley was able to play in 126 games for the Texas Rangers last year but that was out the Designated Hitter role, not an actual position. If Bradley can stay healthy, look for big things from the Cubs not only in the regular season, but also the playoffs.
Key Player: Ryan Dempster
Dempster put up a career year for the Cubs last season when he posted 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA. If Dempster can put up similar numbers to last season he will give the Cubs one of the strongest rotations in baseball. If Dempster can put up those numbers from the fourth spot in the rotation it could certainly put a lid on the rumors of bring Jake Peavy to the North Side.
Player to Watch: Mike Fontenot
Fontenot will be the everyday second baseman with the departure of Mark DeRosa. Fontenot won’t need to make a huge impact offensively for the Cubs as they already have a dangerous lineup. With no pressure on him to perform, he could thrive at the bottom of the order by getting on base and being a second leadoff hitter for the Cubs to give Alfonso Soriano more RBI opportunities out of the leadoff spot.
Conclusion
The only question mark the Cubs face is in center field, can Fukudome perform like he was anticipated to when he signed last year, or can Reed Johnson handle center field everyday? The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, as long as injuries are avoided from players like Bradley and Rich Harden, the Cubs will not only run away with the NL Central but could also make a run deep in October.
Cincinnati Reds
Key Addition: Willy Taveras
Taveras was waived the Colorado Rockies this off-season and the Reds swooped in and signed him. Taveras will give the Reds another lead off option to Brandon Phillips. The Reds may want to use Phillips’ power potential down in the order or just move him to second in the order. If Taveras can get on base, he will give the Reds a legitimate 50-steal threat at the top of the order. That speed will wreak havoc on opposing pitchers a lot like Scott Podsednik for the 2005 Chicago White Sox.
Key Players: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce
With the departures of Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn, Votto and Bruce become the faces of the Reds franchise. They will be staples in the middle of the lineup for years to come in Cincinnati. With that amount of pressure on their shoulders, they need to be able to weather that and still perform up to their talent levels if the Reds want a chance to compete for the NL Central crown.
Player to Watch: Aaron Harang
There is no sugar coding the fact that Aaron Harang had a miserable season last year. He won all of six games last season, which is the least since his first two seasons in the majors. The Reds still have faith in him and he should be able to rebound and perform like he did the previous four seasons where he won double digit games each of those seasons and held an ERA under four in three of those four seasons. If Harang goes back to his normal self, it will also take a lot of pressure off of Edison Volquez and allow him to focus on just pitching and not worrying about being the Ace of the rotation.
Conclusion
The Reds are a team that could be like the Rays last season. They have very good pitching and an offense that can be real dangerous. If the Cubs suffer serious injuries, don’t be surprised to see the Reds taking the NL Central.
St. Louis Cardinals
Key Addition: Khalil Greene
Cesar Izturis, who had a devastating season for the Cardinals, held shortstop last season. Greene will provide the Cardinals a much better option at shortstop, and could have the best season of his career this year. He is getting out of Petco Park which is a hitter’s nightmare and will get to hit at fairly hitter friendly Busch Stadium. Greene could hit between 15-20 home runs for the Cardinals and drive in 70 runs, which will be greatly welcomed from any shortstop but even more so after Izturis hit only one home run and drove in only 24 runs last season.
Key Player: Chris Carpenter
Carpenter has pitched in a combined five games the past two seasons due to having Tommy John Surgery in 2007. The Cardinals hope to get a healthy Carpenter, and if he is healthy he can help sure up the rotation for the Cardinals by winning around 15 games.
Player to Watch: Colby Rasmus
Rasmus will probably be the fourth outfielder for the Cardinals this season but if he gets the opportunity don’t be surprised if he gets a lot of at bats this season. He is a promising prospect who can give the Cardinals double-digit steals and double-digit home runs. If an injury occurs in the St. Louis outfield look for Rasmus to step in and possibly not give up that position.
Conclusion
The offense is in place; the bullpen and the rotation however, are the question marks heading into the season. If the pitching is there, the Cardinals can compete with the Cubs in 2009.
Milwaukee Brewers
Key Addition: Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman is the key addition by default because the Brewers lost more than they gained this off-season. Hoffman, while in the twilight of his career still will give the Brewers a closer to rely on, when he is healthy.
Key Player: Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo steps into the number one slot in the Brewers’ rotation due to the exits of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Gallardo tore his ACL at the beginning of the season last year but was able to come back at the very end and pitched in a few innings but pitched effectively (ERA of 1.88 for his 4 starts last season). If the Brewers have any hope in contending they need Gallardo to step up and be the Ace of their rotation.
Player to Watch: Corey Hart
Hart entered 2008 as can’t miss player and performed early hitting 15 home runs and stealing 13 bases in the first half. But an injury limited him in the second half to 5 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Look for Hart to perform like the first half last season and play a huge role for the Brewers’ offense this season.
Conclusion
The Brewers lost a lot when they lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets and didn't do much to replace those starters. Their offense will allow them to contend but baseball is a game that comes down to pitching and the Brewers just don’t have enough to contend this season.
Houston Astros
Key Addition: Ivan Rodriguez
This was a late addition for the Astros, finalized just a few weeks ago after Rodriguez’ performance in the World Baseball Classic. Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence for the clubhouse and help pitchers to develop further while providing pretty good offensive numbers.
Key Player: Mike Hampton
Hampton cannot stay healthy; there just is nothing around this fact. If Hampton can step up and start at least 15 games, the Astros should be grateful. If he can start more than 15 games, he might put together a great season for the Astros out of the third slot in the rotation.
Player to Watch: Michael Bourn
Bourn turned 27 in December, which is generally the time that players develop into their full potential. Bourn has an insane amount of speed that can get him 50 steals a season, but he needs to get on base more to display his speed (career OBP of .299). Bourn has the ability to be for the Astros what Willy Taveras was to them in 2005 when they made the World Series.
Conclusion
The Astros have too many question marks heading into the season. The only sure things are that Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee will have solid years, and Hunter Pence will continue to develop into a star.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Addition: No one
The Pirates have successfully made themselves worse than last year by not signing or bringing in anyone of any significance.
Key Player: Nate McLouth
McLouth is the best player on the potentially worst team in the majors. He is a 20-20-threat guy and the main reason for Pirates fans to come to PNC Park to watch this team.
Players to Watch: Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss
Moss came from the Jason Bay trade last summer and is a promising prospect for the Pirates. Moss displays speed and power, and if he can cut down on his strikeouts he could become a solid contributor for the Pirates. The addition of LaRoche brings the LaRoche brothers together to man the corners of the Pirates infield. LaRoche brings a decent amount of speed and a little power too. He hits for a good average and gets on base at a very good rate; he could be a very good potential 2-hole hitter if he continues to perform at this rate.
Conclusion
The Pirates are terrible and won’t contend.
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