Premier League Preview

I have a mathematical ranking system devised for the English Premier League. The system is based solely on results so far in the English Premier League and it can both rank the teams and give predictions for future games. The system takes into account home and away advantages and gives each team an offensive and defensive rating that is used to determine the expected number of goals scored for both teams in the match. Soon I will probably give a more in depth look into how both the rankings are created and I will give a numerical value for all the rankings and offensive and defensive ratings. Those of you more interested in the statistical side of things may be interested to note that the scores follow a Poisson Distribution with mean based on the factors listed above.
For now, the ratings can be used for the most interesting thing, predicting match results! I will give the five most likely match outcomes along with the probability of win, draw, or loss for each team. As always, home team listed first! For a more comprehensive preview of this weekend’s action, check this post.

Everton v Manchester United
Most Likely Outcomes:
Everton 0-1 Manchester United, 11.86%
Everton 1-1 Manchester United, 11.25%
Everton 0-2 Manchester United, 10.28%
Everton 1-2 Manchester United, 9.75%
Everton 0-0 Manchester United, 6.84%

Result Probabilities:
Everton Win: 23.66%
Draw: 20.51%
Manchester United Win: 55.83%

Arsenal v Sunderland
Most Likely Outcomes:
Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland, 8.97%
Arsenal 4-0 Sunderland, 8.64%
Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland, 7.30%
Arsenal 4-1 Sunderland, 7.03%
Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland, 6.98%

Result Probabilities:
Arsenal Win: 88.81%
Draw: 7.19%
Sunderland Win: 4.01%

West Ham United v Hull City
Most Likely Outcome:
West Ham United 2-0 Hull City, 10.79%
West Ham United 1-0 Hull City, 10.22%
West Ham United 2-1 Hull City, 9.89%
West Ham United 1-1 Hull City, 9.38%
West Ham United 3-0 Hull City, 7.59%

Result Probabilities:
West Ham Win: 64.82%
Draw: 19.86%
Hull City Win: 15.32%

Wolverhampton v Chelsea
Most Likely Outcomes:
Wolverhampton 0-2 Chelsea, 16.53%
Wolverhampton 0-1 Chelsea, 16.50%
Wolverhampton 0-3 Chelsea, 11.04%
Wolverhampton 0-0 Chelsea, 8.24%
Wolverhampton 1-2 Chelsea, 8.15%

Probability that Wolverhampton scores no goals: 61.09%

Result Probabilities:
Wolverhampton Win: 8.03%
Draw: 18.61%
Chelsea Win: 73.36%

Portsmouth v Stoke City
Most Likely Outcomes:
Portsmouth 0-0 Stoke City, 16.96%
Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke City, 15.41%
Portsmouth 1-0 Stoke City, 14.68%
Portsmouth 1-1 Stoke City, 13.34%
Portsmouth 0-2 Stoke City, 7.00%

Result Probabilities:
Portsmouth Win: 32.24%
Draw: 33.16%
Stoke City Win: 34.60%

Blackburn v Bolton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Blackburn 1-1 Bolton, 11.91%
Blackburn 1-0 Bolton, 11.22%
Blackburn 2-1 Bolton, 9.46%
Blackburn 2-0 Bolton, 8.91%
Blackburn 0-1 Bolton, 7.50%

Result Probabilities:
Blackburn Win: 49.57%
Draw: 25.05%
Bolton Win: 25.38%

Aston Villa v Burnley
Most Likely Outcomes:
Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley, 18.06%
Aston Villa 1-0 Burnley, 17.90%
Aston Villa 3-0 Burnely, 12.14%
Aston Villa 0-0 Burnley, 8.87%
Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley, 7.31%

Probability of Burnley scoring no goals: 66.7%

Result Probabilities:
Aston Villa Win: 75.91%
Draw: 17.74%
Burnley: 6.35%

Fulham v Birmingham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Fulham 1-0 Birmingham, 20.49%
Fulham 0-0 Birmingham, 19.51%
Fulham 1-1 Birmingham, 11.97%
Fulham 0-1 Birmingham, 11.40%
Fulham 2-0 Birmingham, 10.76%

Result Probabilities:
Fulham Win: 46.35%
Draw: 33.45%
Birmingham Win: 20.21%

Manchester City v Liverpool
Most Likely Outcomes:
Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool, 11.32%
Manchester City 2-1 Liverpool, 8.74%
Manchester City 1-2 Liverpool, 8.03%
Manchester City 1-0 Liverpool, 7.98%
Manchester City 0-1 Liverpool, 7.34%

Result Probabilities:
Manchester City Win: 40.52%
Draw: 24.42%
Liverpool Win: 35.05%

Wigan v Tottenham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Wigan 0-2 Tottenham, 10.72%
Wigan 1-2 Tottenham, 9.77%
Wigan 0-1 Tottenham, 9.51%
Wigan 1-1 Tottenham, 8.67%
Wigan 0-3 Tottenham, 8.06%

Result Probabilities:
Wigan Win: 13.78%
Draw: 18.49%
Tottenham Win: 67.73%