Premier League Preview

I have a mathematical ranking system devised for the English Premier League. The system is based solely on results so far in the English Premier League and it can both rank the teams and give predictions for future games. The system takes into account home and away advantages and gives each team an offensive and defensive rating that is used to determine the expected number of goals scored for both teams in the match. Those of you more interested in the statistical side of things may be interested to note that the scores follow a Poisson Distribution with mean based on the factors listed above.
For now, the ratings can be used for the most interesting thing, predicting match results! I will give the five most likely match outcomes along with the probability of win, draw, or loss for each team. As always, home team listed first! For a more comprehensive preview of this weekend’s action, check this post.

Chelsea v Manchester City
Most Likely Outcomes:
Chelsea 2-0 Manchester City, 11.14%
Chelsea 3-0 Manchester City, 10.99%
Chelsea 4-0 Manchester City, 8.13%
Chelsea 2-1 Manchester City, 7.93%
Chelsea 3-1 Manchester City, 7.83%

Result Probabilities:
Chelsea Win: 82.42%
Draw: 11.49%
Manchester City Win: 6.09%

Birmingham v Wigan
Most Likely Outcomes:
Birmingham 1-0 Wigan, 17.68%
Birmingham 2-0 Wigan, 16.52%
Birmingham 3-0 Wigan, 10.29%
Birmingham 0-0 Wigan, 9.46%
Birmingham 1-0 Wigan, 8.65%

Result Probabilities:
Birmingham Win: 70.82%
Draw: 20.30%
Wigan Win: 8.88%

Bolton v Wolverhampton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Bolton 1-0 Wolverhampton, 16.53%
Bolton 2-0 Wolverhampton, 11.98%
Bolton 1-1 Wolverhampton, 11.93%
Bolton 0-0 Wolverhampton, 11.40%
Bolton 2-1 Wolverhampton, 8.65%

Result Probabilities:
Bolton Win: 54.57%
Draw: 26.83%
Wolverhampton Win: 18.60%

Burnley v Portsmouth
Most Likely Outcomes:
Burnley 1-0 Portsmouth, 11.71%
Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth, 11.65%
Burnley 2-0 Portsmouth, 9.67%
Burnley 2-1 Portsmouth, 9.62%
Burnley 0-0 Portsmouth, 7.08%

Result Probabilities:
Burnley Win: 52.77%
Draw: 24.49%
Portsmouth Win: 22.74%

Stoke City v Arsenal
Most Likely Outcomes:
Stoke City 1-1 Arsenal, 12.73%
Stoke City 0-1 Arsenal, 12.12%
Stoke City 1-0 Arsenal, 9.19%
Stoke City 1-2 Arsenal, 8.83%
Stoke City 0-0 Arsenal, 8.75%

Result Probabilities:
Stoke City Win: 28.48%
Draw: 26.94%
Arsenal Win: 44.58%

Tottenham v Everton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Tottenham 2-0 Everton, 11.27%
Tottenham 2-1 Everton, 9.38%
Tottenham 3-0 Everton, 9.20%
Tottenham 1-0 Everton, 9.20%
Tottenham 3-1 Everton, 7.66%

Result Probabilities:
Tottenham Win: 72.91%
Draw: 16.32%
Everton Win: 10.77%

Liverpool v Blackburn
Most Likely Outcomes:
Liverpool 2-0 Blackburn, 14.27%
Liverpool 3-0 Blackburn, 12.98%
Liverpool 1-0 Blackburn, 10.46%
Liverpool 4-0 Blackburn, 8.86%
Liverpool 2-1 Blackburn, 7.60%

Result Probabilities:
Liverpool Win: 83.25%
Draw: 11.79%
Blackburn Win: 4.96%

Sunderland v Fulham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Sunderland 1-1 Fulham, 13.13%
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham, 12.62%
Sunderland 0-1 Fulham, 10.41%
Sunderland 0-0 Fulham, 10.00%
Sunderland 2-1 Fulham, 8.29%

Result Probabilities:
Sunderland Win: 41.38%
Draw: 28.13%
Fulham Win: 30.50%

Here is what the top of the table would look like if these results hold:

Team	W	D	L	GD	Pts
Chelsea	20	4	4	43	64
Manchester United	19	3	6	42	60
Arsenal	17	5	6	33	56
Tottenham Hotspur	14	7	7	24	49
Liverpool	14	6	8	18	48
Manchester City	12	10	5	13	46
Aston Villa	12	9	5	16	45

The only change is Liverpool taking over Manchester City for the 5th spot, just a point out of the Champions League qualifying spot. However, both Manchester City and Aston Villa will have a game in hand.

Premier League Preview

I have a mathematical ranking system devised for the English Premier League. The system is based solely on results so far in the English Premier League and it can both rank the teams and give predictions for future games. The system takes into account home and away advantages and gives each team an offensive and defensive rating that is used to determine the expected number of goals scored for both teams in the match. Soon I will probably give a more in depth look into how both the rankings are created and I will give a numerical value for all the rankings and offensive and defensive ratings. Those of you more interested in the statistical side of things may be interested to note that the scores follow a Poisson Distribution with mean based on the factors listed above.
For now, the ratings can be used for the most interesting thing, predicting match results! I will give the five most likely match outcomes along with the probability of win, draw, or loss for each team. As always, home team listed first! For a more comprehensive preview of this weekend’s action, check this post.

Everton v Manchester United
Most Likely Outcomes:
Everton 0-1 Manchester United, 11.86%
Everton 1-1 Manchester United, 11.25%
Everton 0-2 Manchester United, 10.28%
Everton 1-2 Manchester United, 9.75%
Everton 0-0 Manchester United, 6.84%

Result Probabilities:
Everton Win: 23.66%
Draw: 20.51%
Manchester United Win: 55.83%

Arsenal v Sunderland
Most Likely Outcomes:
Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland, 8.97%
Arsenal 4-0 Sunderland, 8.64%
Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland, 7.30%
Arsenal 4-1 Sunderland, 7.03%
Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland, 6.98%

Result Probabilities:
Arsenal Win: 88.81%
Draw: 7.19%
Sunderland Win: 4.01%

West Ham United v Hull City
Most Likely Outcome:
West Ham United 2-0 Hull City, 10.79%
West Ham United 1-0 Hull City, 10.22%
West Ham United 2-1 Hull City, 9.89%
West Ham United 1-1 Hull City, 9.38%
West Ham United 3-0 Hull City, 7.59%

Result Probabilities:
West Ham Win: 64.82%
Draw: 19.86%
Hull City Win: 15.32%

Wolverhampton v Chelsea
Most Likely Outcomes:
Wolverhampton 0-2 Chelsea, 16.53%
Wolverhampton 0-1 Chelsea, 16.50%
Wolverhampton 0-3 Chelsea, 11.04%
Wolverhampton 0-0 Chelsea, 8.24%
Wolverhampton 1-2 Chelsea, 8.15%

Probability that Wolverhampton scores no goals: 61.09%

Result Probabilities:
Wolverhampton Win: 8.03%
Draw: 18.61%
Chelsea Win: 73.36%

Portsmouth v Stoke City
Most Likely Outcomes:
Portsmouth 0-0 Stoke City, 16.96%
Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke City, 15.41%
Portsmouth 1-0 Stoke City, 14.68%
Portsmouth 1-1 Stoke City, 13.34%
Portsmouth 0-2 Stoke City, 7.00%

Result Probabilities:
Portsmouth Win: 32.24%
Draw: 33.16%
Stoke City Win: 34.60%

Blackburn v Bolton
Most Likely Outcomes:
Blackburn 1-1 Bolton, 11.91%
Blackburn 1-0 Bolton, 11.22%
Blackburn 2-1 Bolton, 9.46%
Blackburn 2-0 Bolton, 8.91%
Blackburn 0-1 Bolton, 7.50%

Result Probabilities:
Blackburn Win: 49.57%
Draw: 25.05%
Bolton Win: 25.38%

Aston Villa v Burnley
Most Likely Outcomes:
Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley, 18.06%
Aston Villa 1-0 Burnley, 17.90%
Aston Villa 3-0 Burnely, 12.14%
Aston Villa 0-0 Burnley, 8.87%
Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley, 7.31%

Probability of Burnley scoring no goals: 66.7%

Result Probabilities:
Aston Villa Win: 75.91%
Draw: 17.74%
Burnley: 6.35%

Fulham v Birmingham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Fulham 1-0 Birmingham, 20.49%
Fulham 0-0 Birmingham, 19.51%
Fulham 1-1 Birmingham, 11.97%
Fulham 0-1 Birmingham, 11.40%
Fulham 2-0 Birmingham, 10.76%

Result Probabilities:
Fulham Win: 46.35%
Draw: 33.45%
Birmingham Win: 20.21%

Manchester City v Liverpool
Most Likely Outcomes:
Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool, 11.32%
Manchester City 2-1 Liverpool, 8.74%
Manchester City 1-2 Liverpool, 8.03%
Manchester City 1-0 Liverpool, 7.98%
Manchester City 0-1 Liverpool, 7.34%

Result Probabilities:
Manchester City Win: 40.52%
Draw: 24.42%
Liverpool Win: 35.05%

Wigan v Tottenham
Most Likely Outcomes:
Wigan 0-2 Tottenham, 10.72%
Wigan 1-2 Tottenham, 9.77%
Wigan 0-1 Tottenham, 9.51%
Wigan 1-1 Tottenham, 8.67%
Wigan 0-3 Tottenham, 8.06%

Result Probabilities:
Wigan Win: 13.78%
Draw: 18.49%
Tottenham Win: 67.73%

Weekend Soccer Preview

Another edition of the Weekend Soccer Preview! And it's a day early this time! I put in some new special features this week, such as the "Big Games in Small Leagues" and predictions for every Premier League fixture along with other important matches. Hope you enjoy!
As always, home team listed first, all times Eastern.

Game of the Week (Rankings from Poll)
11:00 ET Sunday
(2) Chelsea v (7) Arsenal
This is an absolutely massive match for both teams on Sunday. Chelsea leads the league with 55 points, 2 ahead of Manchester United and 6 ahead of Arsenal. A loss or draw for Chelsea would likely mean that United would take the lead or pull even in the table as United has a fairly easy test at home against Portsmouth this weekend. Arsenal is coming off of a brutal 3-1 defeat at home to Manchester United and needs a win here to seriously remain in title contention. Two defeats in a row, even if they are against the top two teams in the league, will be crippling for the morale of the young squad. Manager Arsene Wenger said that “It is a massive blow and a massive disappointment. We need something special now to stay in the race, of course. I am conscious of that. But we have to recover, that is part of top-level football.” Unfortunately Stamford Bridge is not an ideal location for recovering. Chelsea is undefeated in 12 games at the Bridge with just one draw.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal. Chelsea is too good and will not be happy coming off of a mid-week draw against bottom-dwellers Hull City.

Other Games Between Two Ranked Teams
10:30 ET Sunday
(20) Ajax Amsterdam v (15) Twente Enschede
Twente is currently tied atop the Eredivisie with 55 points from 21 games, 9 points ahead of third place Ajax. Twente and PSV Eindhoven have both compiled astounding 17-4-0 records in the league so far this season. Ajax will be looking to challenge that with their own impressive 9-1-0 home record and incredible +43 goal differential from 21 games. Ajax is coming off of a ho-hum 4-0 win over Roda JC Kerkrade mid-week, the 10th time they have scored 4+ goals this season. No big deal. Luis Suarez leads the formidable Ajax attack with 18 goals on the season. Still, Twente is a solid 9 points ahead of Ajax and a win might all but end Ajax’s hopes of comeback this season. Twente won the only other meeting of the teams this season, 1-0 at home.
Prediction: Ajax 2-1 Twente, ending the unbeaten season for Twente and keeping Ajax alive.
14:45 ET Sunday
(T25) Fiorentina v (14) AS Roma
To be frank, I’m not sure how Fiorentina is still ranked in this poll. I suppose it’s because Blaine put them in 24th in his rankings, giving them the 2 points necessary to crack the top 25. No matter what the reason, Fiorentina sits back in 11th in Serie A and has been in a free-fall for some time now. In their last three matches, they have lost 2-1 at home against Bologna, 3-0 at Palermo, and drawn Cagliari 2-2 on the road. AS Roma, on the other hand, has not lost since October 28. Expect those trends to continue this weekend as AS Roma easily handles Fiorentina.
Prediction: Fiorentina 0-2 AS Roma

Top of the Table Clashes
10:00 ET Sunday (Swiss Super League)
FC Basel v Young Boys
Almost a bit of a stretch for a “Top of the Table Clash” as Young Boys holds a 7 point lead on second place Basel halfway through the season. Thus far Young Boys has won both matches against Basel on the season, 2-1 at Basel and 2-0 at home. The leading scorer in the league comes from Young Boys, Seydou Doumbia with 17 goals in just 14 games played. Basel is led by Marco Streller and Alexander Frei with 11 goals each. Basel is coming off of European disappointment, as they were knocked out of the Europa League after a 3-2 loss to Fulham at home on the final match day. A win in this match would be a huge pick-me-up for Basel and keep them in the title race for the rest of the season.
Prediction: FC Basel 1-1 Young Boys

Big Games in Small Leagues
14:45 ET Friday (English League Championship)
Newcastle United v Cardiff City
Newcastle looks to continue its march back to the Premier League. The Magpies lead the English League Championship by 3 points over West Brom with one less game played a little over halfway through the season. Cardiff City sits back in 4th, 11 points off of Newcastle and hanging onto a playoff spot. The top four teams in the Championship all have better than +22 goal differentials (Newcastle +26, Cardiff City +22), while the only other team above +10 is Leicester City at +12. In any event, Newcastle won the first meeting of the season between the two sides, a 1-0 win in Cardiff. Newcastle recently tumbled out of the FA Cup with a 4-2 loss at fellow Championship side West Brom so they will now be entirely focused on making it back to the Premiership.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1-0 Cardiff City
10:00 ET Saturday (Northern Irish Premiership)
Glentoran v Crusaders
Glentoran and Crusaders are currently tied for second place in the Northern Irish Premiership on 43 points. Crusaders have currently played one more game so a win here would bring them truly even with Glentoran in the league. The squads are both 3 points behind leaders Cliftonville, who has played even one game less than Glentoran. Darn those uneven schedules in Northern Ireland! Crusaders hold the edge thus far in the season with a 1-0 win at Glentoran and a 1-1 draw at home. In related news, teams from the Northern Irish Premiership went 0-1-7 in European competition this season, with the only draw being a 1-1 match at home for Crusaders against Macedonian side Rabotnicki. In those eight matches, the Northern Irish team was outscored by a total of 33-4. Ouch.
Prediction: Glentoran 2-2 Crusaders
10:00 ET Sunday (Swiss Super League)
FC Basel v Young Boys

English Premier League
7:45 ET Saturday
Liverpool v Everton
The always entertaining but good-natured Merseyside derby will have a big impact on both clubs’ European aspirations for next year.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Everton
10:00 ET Saturday
Bolton v Fulham
Prediction: Bolton 1-1 Fulham
Burnley v West Ham
Prediction: Burnley 1-1 West Ham
Hull City v (13) Manchester City
Prediction: Hull City 1-1 Manchester City
(5) Manchester United v Portsmouth
Prediction: Wayne Rooney 2-0 Portsmouth. However, Manchester United will win 3-0.
Stoke City v Blackburn Rovers
Prediction: Stoke City 1-0 Blackburn Rovers
Sunderland v Wigan
Prediction: Sunderland 2-0 Wigan
12:30 ET Saturday
(T11) Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Aston Villa. Spurs hang on to their Champions League spot for one more week.
8:30 ET Sunday
Birmingham v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Prediction: Birmingham 1-0 Wolverhampton
11:00 ET Sunday
(2) Chelsea v (7) Arsenal

Spain’s La Liga
12:00 ET Saturday
(T11) Valencia v Valladolid
14:00 ET Saturday
(1) Barcelona v Getafe
16:00 ET Saturday
(T3) Real Madrid v Espanyol
11:00 ET Sunday
Athletic Bilbao v Xerez
Malaga v Deportivo La Coruna
Mallorca v Villarreal
13:00 ET Sunday
Real Zaragoza v (T21) Sevilla FC
15:00 ET Sunday
Racing Santander v Athletico Madrid

Italy’s Serie A
12:00 ET Saturday
Palermo v Parma
14:45 ET Saturday
Livorno v Juventus
9:00 ET Sunday
Bologna v (6) AC Milan
Genoa v Chievo Verona
(T3) Inter Milan v Cagliari
Lazio v Catania
Siena v Sampdoria
Udinese v (23) Napoli
14:45 ET Sunday
(T25) Fiorentina v (14) AS Roma

German Bundesliga
14:30 ET Friday
Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin
Prediction: Werder Bremen 3-0 Hertha Berlin
9:30 ET Saturday
FC Cologne v Hamburg SV
SC Freiburg v (16) Schalke 04
TSG Hoffenheim v Hannover 96
VfL Bochum v (9) Bayer Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg v (10) Bayern Munich
Prediction: Wolfsburg 0-2 Bayern Munich
12:30 ET Saturday
Nurnberg v VfB Stuttgart
11:30 ET Sunday
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt

French Ligue 1
13:00 ET Saturday
Boulogne v (T25) Montpellier
Grenoble v AJ Auxerre
Nice v Lille
Paris Saint-Germain v Lorient
15:00 ET Saturday
Stade Rennes v (8) Bordeaux
11:00 ET Sunday
St. Etienne v AS Monaco
Toulouse v (24) Lyon
Prediction: Toulouse 1-1 Lyon
15:00 ET Sunday
Marseille v Valenciennes

Dutch Eredivisie
12:45 ET Saturday
(17) PSV Eindhoven v ADO Den Haag
13:45 ET Saturday
Heerenveen v FC Utrecht
8:30 ET Sunday
Feyenoord Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar
10:30 ET Sunday
(20) Ajax Amsterdam v (15) Twente Enschede

Portuguese Liga
14:15 ET Saturday
Sporting Lisbon v Academica de Coimbra
16:15 ET Saturday
Vitoria Setubal v (19) Benfica
15:15 ET Sunday
FC Porto v Naval 1 Maio
15:15 ET Monday
Beleneses v (T21) Braga

Turkish Super League
13:00 ET Friday
Besiktas v Genclerbirligi
12:00 ET Saturday
Kayserispor v Galatasaray
12:00 ET Sunday
Fenerbahce v Diyarbakirspor

Greek Super League
12:00 ET Saturday
AEK Athens v FC Xanthi
9:45 ET Sunday
Olympiakos v Levadiakos
12:00 ET Sunday
Larissa v Panathinaikos

Belgian Jupiler League
14:00 ET Saturday
Anderlecht v St. Truiden
12:00 ET Sunday
Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge
14:30 ET Sunday
Racing Genk v Standard Liege

Swiss Super League
10:00 ET Sunday
FC Basel v Young Boys

Northern Irish Premiership
10:00 ET Saturday
Glentoran v Crusaders

English Premier League Preview

There really were not enough matches in Europe this weekend to do more rankings, so look here for a review of the Premier League matches of the weekend. Instead of rankings we have more predictions for English Premier League matches! The formula now includes adjustments for home and away and therefore should be more accurate than last time, when it still worked pretty well. Home team listed first.

Tottenham v West Ham
7:45 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Tottenham 3-1 West Ham, 7.31% probability
Tottenham 4-1 West Ham, 7.18%
Tottenham 3-0 West Ham, 7.13%
Tottenham 4-0 West Ham, 7.00%

Tottenham Win: 86.53%
Draw: 8.06%
West Ham Win: 5.41%

Blackburn v Sunderland
10:00 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Blackburn 1-1 Sunderland, 12.73%
Blackburn 0-1 Sunderland, 11.19%
Blackburn 1-0 Sunderland, 9.36%

Blackburn Win: 31.30%
Draw: 26.81%
Sunderland Win: 41.88%

Chelsea v Fulham
10:00 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Chelsea 1-0 Fulham, 19.74%
Chelsea 2-0 Fulham, 17.40%
Chelsea 0-0 Fulham, 11.20%
Chelsea 3-0 Fulham, 10.23%

Chelsea Win: 70.36%
Draw: 21.34%
Fulham Win: 8.31%

Everton v Burnley
10:00 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Everton 2-1 Burnley, 9.83%
Everton 1-1 Burnley, 9.01%
Everton 2-0 Burnley, 8.86%
Everton 1-0 Burnley, 8.12%

Everton Win: 61.75%
Draw: 19.89%
Burnley Win: 18.36%

Stoke City v Birmingham
10:00 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Stoke City 0-0 Birmingham, 27.09%
Stoke City 1-0 Birmingham, 20.55%
Stoke City 0-1 Birmingham, 14.83%
Stoke City 1-1 Birmingham, 11.25%

Stoke City Win: 36.72%
Draw: 39.56% (First time I’ve ever seen a draw be most likely)
Birmingham Win: 23.71%

Wolverhampton v Manchester City
14:45 ET Monday
Most Likely Scores:
Wolverhampton 1-1 Manchester City, 12.24%
Wolverhampton 0-1 Manchester City, 11.54%
Wolverhampton 1-2 Manchester City, 9.26%
Wolverhampton 0-2 Manchester City, 8.73%

Wolverhampton Win: 26.57%
Draw: 25.74%
Manchester City Win: 47.69%

Aston Villa v Liverpool
14:45 ET Tuesday
Most Likely Scores:
Aston Villa 1-0 Liverpool 13.20%
Aston Villa 1-1 Liverpool, 12.16%
Aston Villa 2-0 Liverpool, 10.07%
Aston Villa 2-1 Liverpool, 9.28%

Aston Villa Win: 51.40%
Draw: 25.82%
Liverpool Win: 22.78%

Bolton Wanderers v Hull City
15:00 ET Tuesday
Most Likely Scores:
Bolton 2-1 Hull City, 9.66%
Bolton 2-0 Hull City, 9.01%
Bolton 1-1 Hull City, 8.21%
Bolton 1-0 Hull City, 7.66%
Bolton 3-1 Hull City, 7.58%

Bolton Win: 65.86%
Draw: 18.35%
Hull City: 15.79%

Portsmouth v Arsenal
14:45 ET Wednesday
Most Likely Scores:
Portsmouth 0-2 Arsenal, 10.53%
Portsmouth 1-2 Arsenal, 9.88%
Portsmouth 0-1 Arsenal, 9.77%
Portsmouth 1-1 Arsenal, 9.16%

Portsmouth Win: 15.26%
Draw: 19.51%
Arsenal Win: 65.23%

Manchester United v Wigan
15:00 ET Wednesday
Most Likely Scores:
Manchester United 3-0 Wigan, 12.32%
Manchester United 4-0 Wigan, 11.72%
Manchester United 2-0 Wigan, 9.72%
Manchester United 5-0 Wigan, 8.91%

Manchester United Win: 92.38%
Draw: 5.48%
Wigan Win: 2.14%

English Premier League Roundup

It is an exciting time in the Premier League, with a full weekend of games to go with games from Monday to Wednesday. As promised, I will now review how the predictions made in this post actually turned out!

Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea
Visitors and league leaders Chelsea were held to a 0-0 draw at Birmingham, a game in which they dominated play, with an advantage of 30 shots to 14 to go along with 63% possession.
Predicted score: Birmingham 0-1 Chelsea, 20.19%
Actual score: Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea had 12.54% probability, good for being the third most likely score after 0-1 and 0-2.
A draw had 23.87% chance of happening.

Fulham 0-0 Tottenham
Tottenham were outplayed in the London derby, and were saved by the play of Brazilian keeper Heurelho Gomes as Fulham failed to capitalize on numerous chances on goal.
Predicted score: Fulham 1-1 Tottenham, 12.08%
Actual score: Fulham 0-0 Tottenham had 6.88% probability and was the 7th most likely score.
A draw had 25.42% chance of happening.

West Ham 2-0 Portsmouth
West Ham had a huge win in the relegation battle on the back of a penalty by Alessandro Diamanti and a goal from Radoslav Kovac. The win pulled West Ham out of the relegation zone for now, as they sit in 16th on 18 points, 1 ahead of Bolton and Hull City.
Predicted score: West Ham 1-1 Portsmouth, 12.48%
Actual score: West Ham 2-0 Portsmouth had 7.04% probability and was the 7th most likely result.
There was a 40.56% chance of a West Ham win, the most likely outcome.

Burnley 1-1 Bolton Wanderers
Matthew Taylor scored for Bolton on a brilliant free kick in the 29th minute and David Nugent tied it up for the hosts in the 56th. Keeper Jussi Jaaskelainen saved the game for Bolton, as Burnley dominated with an 18-11 shot advantage and 62% possession.
Predicted score: Burnley 1-1 Bolton, 8.93%
Actual score: Burnley 1-1 Bolton, the most likely outcome.
A draw had a 21.90% chance of happening.

Manchester City 2-0 Stoke City
Martin Petrov and Carlos Tevez won it for Manchester City in manager Roberto Mancini’s debut after the controversial sacking of Mark Hughes. This solidifies Manchester City’s place in 6th and brings them within just 3 points of 4th place Aston Villa and a Champions League spot.
Predicted score: Manchester City 1-0 Stoke City, 13.02%
Actual score: Manchester City 2-0 Stoke City with 8.95% probability, good for being the 5th most likely outcome.
A Manchester City win had probability 45.91%, the most likely outcome.

Sunderland 1-1 Everton
A late goal by Marouane Fellaini for Everton cancelled out an early Darren Bent goal as Everton stole a draw at Sunderland. Both teams are a part of the logjam in the middle of the table, where 10th and 19th place are separated by a mere 5 points.
Predicted score: Sunderland 1-1 Everton, 10.24%
Actual score: Sunderland 1-1 Everton, the most likely outcome.
A draw had 22.38% chance of occurring.

Wigan 1-1 Blackburn
Benedict McCarthy scored for Blackburn in the 30th and Hugo Rodallega equalized in the 53rd as these mid to low-table dwellers played out to an uneventful draw.
Predicted score: Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, 11.86%
Actual score: Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, the most likely outcome.
A draw had 25.17% chance of occurring.

Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool endured a nerve-wracking first hour and ended up winning on late goals by Steven Gerrard and Yossi Benayoun. This was a necessary win for Liverpool and they now sit in 7th, 5 points out of a Champions League spot.
Predicted score: Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, 12.02%
Actual score: Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, the most likely outcome.
A Liverpool win had 69.62% chance of happening, the most likely outcome.

Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa
Cesc Fabregas came off the bench in the 57th minute and scored twice, with Abou Diaby adding a stoppage-time goal for the Arsenal win. The win was huge for Arsenal as it vaulted them temporarily into 2nd place, and Aston Villa still sit in 4th in the league.
Predicted score: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa, 12.72%
Actual score: Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa, 3.02%, the 12th most likely result in the game and least likely result of the weekend.
An Arsenal win had 38.99% chance of happening, the most likely outcome of the game.

Hull City 1-3 Manchester United
A rocky first half for United was saved by a Wayne Rooney goal in the 45th. Hull City tied it up on a Craig Fagan penalty in the 59th before an Andy Dawson own goal and Dimitar Berbatov goal (both assisted by Rooney) gave United the vital win. United has pulled within 2 points of Chelsea in the league.
Predicted score: Hull City 0-3 Manchester United, 11.70%
Actual score: Hull City 1-3 Manchester United had a 7.54% chance of happening, the 4th most likely result.
A Manchester United win had an incredible 86.04% chance of occurring, by far the most likely outcome.

Rooney celebrates his goal at the end of the first half

The formula did not do a bad job at all of predicting outcomes. Four of the ten were dead-on, which is a great percentage, and all but one of the results were close to what was expected.

English Premier League Soccer Predictions

For Christmas I got a received book called Mathletics by Wayne Winston. Essentially, the book contains mathematics behind the major sports of baseball, football, and basketball, along with an extensive section on gambling in sports and other minor sports. Mainly the book focuses on evaluating teams and players, along with predicting future results based on past results. There is a section on soccer ranking and prediction and as it is Christmas, I do not have too much time to expand on this. However, I want to use the methods outlined in the book to predict scores for this weekend's English Premier League matches. I will give the most likely scores and the probabilities of a win for either team and draw in each match. Note that the method does not factor in home field advantage, something I will attempt to take care of later. For now, empirical adjustments will have to be made to determine most likely score. At least all scores with probability greater than 10% will be given.

Birmingham City v Chelsea
7:45 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Birmingham 0-1 Chelsea, 20.19% probability
Birmingham 0-2 Chelsea, 16.25%
Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea, 12.54%

Birmingham Win: 10.35%
Draw: 23.87%
Chelsea Win: 65.78%

Fulham v Tottenham
8:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Fulham 1-1 Tottenham, 12.08%
Fulham 0-1 Tottenham, 10.50%

Fulham Win: 28.67%
Draw: 25.42%
Tottenham Win: 45.90%

West Ham v Portsmouth
8:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
West Ham 1-1 Portsmouth, 12.48%
West Ham 1-0 Portsmouth, 10.19%

West Ham Win: 40.56%
Draw: 26.25%
Portsmouth Win: 33.19%

Burnley v Bolton
9:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores (None over 10%):
Burnley 1-1 Bolton, 8.93%
Burnley 1-2 Bolton, 8.47%
Burnley 2-1 Bolton, 7.47%
Burnley 2-2 Bolton, 7.09%

Burnley Win: 34.51%
Draw: 21.90%
Bolton Win: 43.59%

Manchester City v Stoke City
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Manchester City 1-0 Stoke City, 13.02%
Manchester City 1-1 Stoke City, 12.78%

Manchester City Win: 45.91%
Draw: 27.27%
Stoke City: 26.81%

Sunderland v Everton
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Sunderland 1-1 Everton, 10.25%
Sunderland 2-1 Everton, 9.71%
Sunderland 1-0 Everton, 8.37%
Sunderland 2-0 Everton, 7.93%

Sunderland Win: 53.07%
Draw: 22.38%
Everton Win: 24.54%

Wigan v Blackburn
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, 11.86%
Wigan 0-1 Blackburn, 8.76%
Wigan 1-2 Blackburn, 8.65%

Wigan Win: 35.04%
Draw: 25.17%
Blackburn Win: 39.79%

Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers
12:30 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, 12.02%
Liverpool 1-0 Wolverhampton, 10.85%
Liverpool 2-1 Wolverhampton, 9.62%

Liverpool Win: 69.62%
Draw: 18.28%
Wolverhampton Win: 12.10%

Arsenal v Aston Villa
8:30 ET Sunday
Most Likely Scores:
Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa, 12.72%
Arsenal 1-0 Aston Villa, 10.45%
Arsenal 0-1 Aston Villa, 9.66%

Arsenal Win: 38.99%
Draw: 26.76%
Aston Villa Win: 34.25%

Hull City v Manchester United
11:00 ET Sunday
Most Likely Scores:
Hull City 0-3 Manchester United, 11.70%
Hull City 0-2 Manchester United, 11.02%
Hull City 0-4 Manchester United, 9.32%

Hull City Win: 4.45%
Draw: 9.51%
Manchester United: 86.04% (!!!)

In order to keep myself honest, on Sunday or Monday I will recap the scores in the Premier League this weekend and we'll see how the formula did!
Merry Christmas to everybody!