English Premier League Soccer Predictions

For Christmas I got a received book called Mathletics by Wayne Winston. Essentially, the book contains mathematics behind the major sports of baseball, football, and basketball, along with an extensive section on gambling in sports and other minor sports. Mainly the book focuses on evaluating teams and players, along with predicting future results based on past results. There is a section on soccer ranking and prediction and as it is Christmas, I do not have too much time to expand on this. However, I want to use the methods outlined in the book to predict scores for this weekend's English Premier League matches. I will give the most likely scores and the probabilities of a win for either team and draw in each match. Note that the method does not factor in home field advantage, something I will attempt to take care of later. For now, empirical adjustments will have to be made to determine most likely score. At least all scores with probability greater than 10% will be given.

Birmingham City v Chelsea
7:45 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Birmingham 0-1 Chelsea, 20.19% probability
Birmingham 0-2 Chelsea, 16.25%
Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea, 12.54%

Birmingham Win: 10.35%
Draw: 23.87%
Chelsea Win: 65.78%

Fulham v Tottenham
8:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Fulham 1-1 Tottenham, 12.08%
Fulham 0-1 Tottenham, 10.50%

Fulham Win: 28.67%
Draw: 25.42%
Tottenham Win: 45.90%

West Ham v Portsmouth
8:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
West Ham 1-1 Portsmouth, 12.48%
West Ham 1-0 Portsmouth, 10.19%

West Ham Win: 40.56%
Draw: 26.25%
Portsmouth Win: 33.19%

Burnley v Bolton
9:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores (None over 10%):
Burnley 1-1 Bolton, 8.93%
Burnley 1-2 Bolton, 8.47%
Burnley 2-1 Bolton, 7.47%
Burnley 2-2 Bolton, 7.09%

Burnley Win: 34.51%
Draw: 21.90%
Bolton Win: 43.59%

Manchester City v Stoke City
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Manchester City 1-0 Stoke City, 13.02%
Manchester City 1-1 Stoke City, 12.78%

Manchester City Win: 45.91%
Draw: 27.27%
Stoke City: 26.81%

Sunderland v Everton
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Sunderland 1-1 Everton, 10.25%
Sunderland 2-1 Everton, 9.71%
Sunderland 1-0 Everton, 8.37%
Sunderland 2-0 Everton, 7.93%

Sunderland Win: 53.07%
Draw: 22.38%
Everton Win: 24.54%

Wigan v Blackburn
10:00 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, 11.86%
Wigan 0-1 Blackburn, 8.76%
Wigan 1-2 Blackburn, 8.65%

Wigan Win: 35.04%
Draw: 25.17%
Blackburn Win: 39.79%

Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers
12:30 ET Saturday
Most Likely Scores:
Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, 12.02%
Liverpool 1-0 Wolverhampton, 10.85%
Liverpool 2-1 Wolverhampton, 9.62%

Liverpool Win: 69.62%
Draw: 18.28%
Wolverhampton Win: 12.10%

Arsenal v Aston Villa
8:30 ET Sunday
Most Likely Scores:
Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa, 12.72%
Arsenal 1-0 Aston Villa, 10.45%
Arsenal 0-1 Aston Villa, 9.66%

Arsenal Win: 38.99%
Draw: 26.76%
Aston Villa Win: 34.25%

Hull City v Manchester United
11:00 ET Sunday
Most Likely Scores:
Hull City 0-3 Manchester United, 11.70%
Hull City 0-2 Manchester United, 11.02%
Hull City 0-4 Manchester United, 9.32%

Hull City Win: 4.45%
Draw: 9.51%
Manchester United: 86.04% (!!!)

In order to keep myself honest, on Sunday or Monday I will recap the scores in the Premier League this weekend and we'll see how the formula did!
Merry Christmas to everybody!