English Premier League Roundup

It is an exciting time in the Premier League, with a full weekend of games to go with games from Monday to Wednesday. As promised, I will now review how the predictions made in this post actually turned out!

Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea
Visitors and league leaders Chelsea were held to a 0-0 draw at Birmingham, a game in which they dominated play, with an advantage of 30 shots to 14 to go along with 63% possession.
Predicted score: Birmingham 0-1 Chelsea, 20.19%
Actual score: Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea had 12.54% probability, good for being the third most likely score after 0-1 and 0-2.
A draw had 23.87% chance of happening.

Fulham 0-0 Tottenham
Tottenham were outplayed in the London derby, and were saved by the play of Brazilian keeper Heurelho Gomes as Fulham failed to capitalize on numerous chances on goal.
Predicted score: Fulham 1-1 Tottenham, 12.08%
Actual score: Fulham 0-0 Tottenham had 6.88% probability and was the 7th most likely score.
A draw had 25.42% chance of happening.

West Ham 2-0 Portsmouth
West Ham had a huge win in the relegation battle on the back of a penalty by Alessandro Diamanti and a goal from Radoslav Kovac. The win pulled West Ham out of the relegation zone for now, as they sit in 16th on 18 points, 1 ahead of Bolton and Hull City.
Predicted score: West Ham 1-1 Portsmouth, 12.48%
Actual score: West Ham 2-0 Portsmouth had 7.04% probability and was the 7th most likely result.
There was a 40.56% chance of a West Ham win, the most likely outcome.

Burnley 1-1 Bolton Wanderers
Matthew Taylor scored for Bolton on a brilliant free kick in the 29th minute and David Nugent tied it up for the hosts in the 56th. Keeper Jussi Jaaskelainen saved the game for Bolton, as Burnley dominated with an 18-11 shot advantage and 62% possession.
Predicted score: Burnley 1-1 Bolton, 8.93%
Actual score: Burnley 1-1 Bolton, the most likely outcome.
A draw had a 21.90% chance of happening.

Manchester City 2-0 Stoke City
Martin Petrov and Carlos Tevez won it for Manchester City in manager Roberto Mancini’s debut after the controversial sacking of Mark Hughes. This solidifies Manchester City’s place in 6th and brings them within just 3 points of 4th place Aston Villa and a Champions League spot.
Predicted score: Manchester City 1-0 Stoke City, 13.02%
Actual score: Manchester City 2-0 Stoke City with 8.95% probability, good for being the 5th most likely outcome.
A Manchester City win had probability 45.91%, the most likely outcome.

Sunderland 1-1 Everton
A late goal by Marouane Fellaini for Everton cancelled out an early Darren Bent goal as Everton stole a draw at Sunderland. Both teams are a part of the logjam in the middle of the table, where 10th and 19th place are separated by a mere 5 points.
Predicted score: Sunderland 1-1 Everton, 10.24%
Actual score: Sunderland 1-1 Everton, the most likely outcome.
A draw had 22.38% chance of occurring.

Wigan 1-1 Blackburn
Benedict McCarthy scored for Blackburn in the 30th and Hugo Rodallega equalized in the 53rd as these mid to low-table dwellers played out to an uneventful draw.
Predicted score: Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, 11.86%
Actual score: Wigan 1-1 Blackburn, the most likely outcome.
A draw had 25.17% chance of occurring.

Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool endured a nerve-wracking first hour and ended up winning on late goals by Steven Gerrard and Yossi Benayoun. This was a necessary win for Liverpool and they now sit in 7th, 5 points out of a Champions League spot.
Predicted score: Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, 12.02%
Actual score: Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton, the most likely outcome.
A Liverpool win had 69.62% chance of happening, the most likely outcome.

Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa
Cesc Fabregas came off the bench in the 57th minute and scored twice, with Abou Diaby adding a stoppage-time goal for the Arsenal win. The win was huge for Arsenal as it vaulted them temporarily into 2nd place, and Aston Villa still sit in 4th in the league.
Predicted score: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa, 12.72%
Actual score: Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa, 3.02%, the 12th most likely result in the game and least likely result of the weekend.
An Arsenal win had 38.99% chance of happening, the most likely outcome of the game.

Hull City 1-3 Manchester United
A rocky first half for United was saved by a Wayne Rooney goal in the 45th. Hull City tied it up on a Craig Fagan penalty in the 59th before an Andy Dawson own goal and Dimitar Berbatov goal (both assisted by Rooney) gave United the vital win. United has pulled within 2 points of Chelsea in the league.
Predicted score: Hull City 0-3 Manchester United, 11.70%
Actual score: Hull City 1-3 Manchester United had a 7.54% chance of happening, the 4th most likely result.
A Manchester United win had an incredible 86.04% chance of occurring, by far the most likely outcome.

Rooney celebrates his goal at the end of the first half

The formula did not do a bad job at all of predicting outcomes. Four of the ten were dead-on, which is a great percentage, and all but one of the results were close to what was expected.