Big Ten Basketball Preview

Big Ten basketball season starts up this week and it looks to be another fun year. So far, however, the Big Ten has been slightly disappointing. Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois were all ranked pre-season but have fallen out of the polls quickly with 6-5, 9-3, and 8-4 records respectively. Purdue leads the pack with a #4 ranking in the AP poll. The other ranked teams are Michigan State at #11 and Ohio State at #15, while Wisconsin and Northwestern are just outside receiving votes (Update: Wisconsin and Northwestern are now in the rankings at #23 and #25 respectively). Here is a team-by-team breakdown of what to expect this season. Teams are listed in reverse order of expected finish:

Iowa
Record: 5-7
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Texas-San Antonio, Duquesne, Northern Iowa
The season started off terribly with back-to-back losses at home to Texas-San Antonio and Duquesne in a span of two days. There is simply not enough talent on the team at the moment and they have just lost Anthony Tucker, their second leading scorer, to his second public intoxication arrest in as many years. They have a legitimate shot at not winning a game all season, and things start off as hard as possible with a home match-up against Purdue on Tuesday.

Indiana
Record: 5-6
Good Wins: Pittsburgh…but that is a stretch.
Bad Losses: Boston University, Loyola-Maryland
Indiana has some good young talent but this is still a rebuilding year for the Hoosiers. They are led in scoring by freshmen Maurice Creek (17.6 pts, 4.0 reb per game) and Christian Watford (12.2 pts, 5.7 reb per game). Sophomore Verdell Jones III is right behind with 11.5 points per game. Expect Indiana to improve as Big Ten play progresses and the young players learn, but don’t expect them to be a factor in the Big Ten.

Penn State
Record: 8-4
Good Wins: at Virginia? Maybe.
Bad Losses: UNC-Wilmington, Tulane
The Talor Battle-led Nittany Lions had back-to-back losses to UNC-Wilmington and Tulane early in the year. They have played a fairly weak schedule and probably hoped to get out of it with two losses at most. Talor Battle is having a decent season, averaging 18.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. However, nobody else seems to want to step up and be his sidekick, as 6 players are averaging between 6.8 and 8.0 points per game. They had some decent pre-season expectations after winning the NIT last season, and they have a chance to fulfill those expectations with a strong Big Ten showing.

Michigan
Record: 6-5
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Boston College, Utah
Michigan is a team that like many Big Ten squads had high expectations coming into the season and have not lived up to them. They were even ranked #15 coming into the season but a mildly difficult schedule has exposed them as frauds. They are led by pre-season all-Big Ten guard Manny Harris and forward DeShawn Sims. Harris is averaging 20.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, while Sims averages 16.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. However, these two are shooting a combined 29.3% from three-point range. There is virtually no supporting cast for the two stars, as the third highest scorer is Laval Lucas-Perry at 7.2 points per game. Michigan is being out-rebounded by 4 rebounds per game and as a team is shooting 29.0% from three point range and 42.2% overall. They will be in for a difficult season if the rest of the team does not step it up soon.

Minnesota
Record: 9-3
Good Wins: Butler
Bad Losses: Portland
Minnesota is a program with disciplinary problems as freshmen Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe are both suspended with a shoplifting charge and assault charge respectively. Royce White appears to have left the program but Tubby Smith claims he has not. Royce White was ranked as the #19 player in the nation coming out of high school and would be a key contributor if he were able to play for the Gophers. The Gophers have a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging more than 8.4 points, led by Lawrence Westbrook who has 12.9 points per game and is shooting 40% from long distance. Junior guard Blake Hoffarber is shooting a fantastic 49.3% from three point land and three-quarters of his shots are taken from that range. Minnesota is still a solid team and had a solid early win against Butler in California, so if they can somehow sort out their problems, they will be a force in the Big Ten.

Illinois
Record: 8-4
Good Wins: at Clemson
Bad Losses: Utah, Bradley, Georgia
Illinois is a team that is somewhat difficult to figure out. They lost back-to-back games against Utah and Bradley and followed that up with a stunning comeback win at then 19th ranked Clemson. Currently they have lost two straight at Georgia and against Missouri and open up Big Ten play Wednesday against Northwestern. On January 2 they will host Gonzaga in a difficult tune up for the rest of the season. They are another team with a balanced scoring attack, with 5 players averaging more than 10.4 points per game. Junior guard Demetri McCamey leads the way with 14.1 points and 5.4 assists per game, while junior forward Mike Davis is right behind with 12.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Coach Bruce Weber has been hot on the recruiting trail lately and it is paying off with freshmen guards DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul getting significant minutes every game and both averaging more than 10 points per game. Illinois is a good team having a tough year, but they will improve as the inexperienced backcourt improves. They will be a significant force next year in the Big Ten.

#25 Northwestern
Record: 10-1
Good Wins: Notre Dame, North Carolina State
Bad Losses: None
When Northwestern lost senior forward Kevin Coble for the year, most people wrote Northwestern off. Instead they have gone on a 10-1 run to start the season and are barely outside of the AP top 25 rankings. Sophomore forward John Shurna has stepped up in Coble’s absence, averaging 15.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, making him one of the most valuable players in the Big Ten. Northwestern’s lone loss came against now-20th ranked Butler. Junior guard Michael Thompson leads the scoring with 16.7 points per game along with shooting 42.5% from three-point range. As a team they are shooting 36.5% on the season from long range and that will be a key to their continued success. Northwestern is still missing Coble on the boards as they are being out-rebounded this season, but the more they keep winning without him, the more confident they will be going into the heart of Big Ten season. Expect them to be in the running for an NCAA tournament spot at the end of the season.

#23 Wisconsin
Record: 10-2
Good Wins: Duke
Bad Losses: Wisconsin-Green Bay
The highlight of the season for Wisconsin has without a doubt been the massive win at home against then 6th-ranked Duke that won the Big Ten/ACC challenge for the Big Ten. Still, they are a mercurial team as proven by their overtime loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay just one week later. The Sagarin Ratings have Wisconsin as the 17th ranked team in the nation, while they are just outside the Top 25 in the AP Poll. The Badgers are led by junior forward Jon Leuer, who is averaging 17.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Senior guard Trevon Hughes is right behind with 16.4 points per game and he is shooting 41.1% from three-point range. Wisconsin is 8-0 this year and it looks like the Kohl Center will once again be a difficult place for opponents to play.

#15 Ohio State
Record: 10-2
Good Wins: Florida State, California
Bad Losses: None
The undisputed leader of Ohio State and the best all around player in the conference is junior forward Evan Turner. Unfortunately for Ohio State he has a back injury and has missed the last four games including a loss to Butler. He will be out for a couple more weeks, and may not be back in time for their first big test of the conference season, January 12th at Purdue. When healthy, Turner got two early season triple-doubles and was averaging 18.5 points and 11.4 rebounds per game, to go with 5.9 assists per game. In his absence, William Buford is averaging 15.5 points per game and David Lighty is averaging 19.5 points per game, an increase of a combined 12 points per game on their season averages before his injury. As long as Evan Turner is back in time for the second half of the season and the tournaments, Ohio State will be a team everyone will want to avoid come March.

#11 Michigan State
Record: 9-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Florida
Michigan State was the preseason #2 in the nation in the AP Poll and has not had the ideal start to the season they may have hoped for. The Spartans certainly gave themselves a difficult schedule with Florida, North Carolina and Texas, but they will have expected to win at least two of those coming into the season. Still, they are a popular pick to win the Big Ten and are led by junior point guard Kalin Lucas, who is averaging 15.7 points and 4.3 assists per game to go with a 40% clip from three-point range. After Lucas there is a great supporting cast of 4 players averaging 10.3-10.5 points and Delvon Roe just behind with 8.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. As a team, Michigan State is out-rebounding their opponents 41 to 31 per game, and is shooting over 50% as a team from the field. However, they have yet to prove themselves against a quality opponent and will have to wait until February for the highly anticipated match-ups against Purdue.

#4 Purdue
Record: 11-0
Good Wins: Wake Forest, Tennessee
Bad Losses: None
As a Purdue student, I of course have no choice but to put Purdue in the top spot in the conference, a spot which I think they completely deserve. They have navigated a fairly easy early season schedule, with good wins against Tennessee in the Virgin Islands, at home against Wake Forest, and at Alabama, a game in which they were down 16 at one point but came back on the heels of their incredible defense. Offensively, Purdue is led by juniors E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson, who combine for 45.2 points per game. Hummel and Johnson average 6.6 and 6.8 rebounds per game, are constant double-double threats and are the key components of Purdue’s somewhat shallow frontcourt. Freshman Sandi Marcius will (hopefully) be back soon from a foot injury, and his return would add much-needed frontcourt depth for the physical Big Ten season. The three point shooting for Purdue has been somewhat down this season, as they are shooting 30.8% as a team and Hummel is shooting just 28.6% from long distance. Still, they are a team that can get hot at any time and beat you from long range. The calling card of Purdue is still their defense, which is led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Chris Kramer, who has 20 steals on the season including several key plays at the end of the Alabama game. The Boilermaker defense allows just 59.9 points per game and forces 20.9 turnovers per game. When Lewis Jackson and Sandi Marcius return from injuries, it will only improve the depth of this already deep Purdue team, which has a very good chance at making a Final Four run to Indianapolis this season. Purdue opens up with an easy test at Iowa on Tuesday, and on New Year's day #6 West Virginia comes to town for what will be a massive final non-conference game.