2009 NL East Preview

New York Mets

Key Additions
JJ Putz/Francisco Rodriguez – With the loss of Billy Wagner to Tommy John surgery, the Mets needed a bullpen boost. They got that and more with the addition of K-Rod for the closer’s role and Putz in the setup role. Rodriguez set the save record last year with 62 saves and had 10.1 K/9. Rodriguez has been lights out his whole career in save situations, with a 2.23 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Putz struggled last year with injuries but still had a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves. With the pressure slightly lessened in the setup role, look for him to inch back to his 2006-2007 form, when he had a 1.86 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 11.16 K/9. These two men will be huge coming out of the bullpen, backing up a solid rotation.

Key Players
Johan Santana – Santana is widely considered one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his WHIP has steadily risen each year since 2004 and in 2008, he had his lowest strikeout total since 2003, even though he reached his career high in innings pitched. To say a pitcher who went 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP “struggled” last year is absurd, but Johan could perform better. Look for him to dominate in 2009 after a year of getting acclimated to the National League.

Carlos Delgado – The Mets have had one of the best offenses in the National League over the past couple of years. If there is one area they could possibly improve it is hitting for power. They were 6th in the NL in slugging percentage (.420) and 7th in HR (172). A solid component of their power comes from Carlos Delgado, who is coming off of a year where he hit .271/.353/.518 with 38 HR and 115 RBI. Delgado has almost quietly put up these types of numbers year after year in his career, but he turned 36 last October. He hit a staggering.438/.625/.938 in 6 games in the World Baseball Classic and an equally staggering .519/.606/.704 in Spring Training. Look for him to not only keep up his consistent production, but put up even better numbers this year.

Player To Watch
John Maine – Maine’s 2008 was marred by injury late in the year, with a bone spur in his right shoulder. Doctors said it was the biggest they had ever seen, and they were shocked he could pitch through it. Maine still had a decent 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but he should be able to improve on those numbers as he came into spring completely healthy. He has struggled in Spring Training with a 6.85 ERA, but again, the main thing is that he is healthy. For the rotation to hold up this year they need Maine to come back to form along with some help from Mike Pelfrey.

Conclusion
Expect the Mets to be in a season-long dogfight with the Phillies for the NL East division crown. The season in a marathon and anything can happen, but in the end, both teams will likely make the playoffs, with the runner-up snapping up the NL Wild Card spot. The Mets are good on the mound, great at the plate, and solid in the field.

Philadelphia Phillies

Key Additions
Raul Ibanez – Ibanez comes to the Phillies as a direct replacement for Pat Burrell in left field. Ibanez had 23 HR with 110 RBI while hitting .293/.358/.479 last year but is getting on in age and his OBP and SLG were slightly lower than Burrell’s already. If Ibanez can at least keep up his production of last season it will be a good addition for the Phillies.

Chan Ho Park – The back end of the Phillies rotation struggled last year, with Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton both having ERAs over 5.40. Chan Ho Park is a solid addition, as he had a 3.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in a mainly relieving role in 2008. Still, Park spent 2006 battling injury and 2007 in the minors. If Park repeats his performance of last season, the Phillies will have no rotation issues.

Key Players
Jimmy Rollins – Rollins won the MVP in 2007 but is coming off of a down year in 2008. It remains to be seen whether or not his 25 and 30 HR seasons in ’06 and ’07 were an anomaly or if Rollins can be a power hitter. Either way, Rollins only hit 11 HR with 59 last year after missing some time early in the year to an ankle sprain. In order for the Phillies to be “The Team To Beat” in the NL East, Rollins will have to return to his 2007 form.

Player To Watch
Pedro Feliz – In 2008, Feliz had a lower back inflammation injury that hampered him throughout the season. His power numbers were down from his usual 20 HR, 85 RBI production, but he managed to improve his very low OBP and his strikeout rate has been drastically decreased over the past two years. Look for Feliz can put up solid numbers like he did from 2004-2007.

Conclusion
Just like with the Mets, the Phillies are a solid team on the mound and at the plate. In the end, I think the Phillies are slightly weaker in both aspects and will lose out to the Mets, but they should still make the postseason as the NL Wild Card.


Atlanta Braves

Key Additions
Derek Lowe – In the past four years since moving to the National League from the Red Sox, Derek Lowe has gone 54-48 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Lowe will be a welcome addition to a rotation that is solid, but not very deep. Along with Lowe, the Braves added Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami to their rotation.

Key Players
Chipper Jones – Chipper Jones is the cornerstone to what will be a mediocre Braves offense. Though he has not played more than 137 games in the past five seasons, he is still putting up monster numbers, hitting .364/.470/.574 in 2008 and .342/.435/.592 the past three seasons. The Braves need this 36-year old to keep up this production and play on a regular basis to have a chance this season.

Player To Watch
Kenshin Kawakami – Kawakami is considered a crafty veteran from Japan with a fastball in the low 90s, slow curve, and very good cutter. Last year for the Chunichi Dragons, Kawakami went 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA in 20 GS with 112 K in 117.1 IP. For comparison purposes, Daisuke Matsuzaka was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA, with 200 K in 186.1 IP the year before he came to the Major Leagues. It may take time for Kawakami to get acclimated to the Major Leagues, but he should be a solid pitcher when he does.

Conclusion
The Braves look to be a thoroughly average team. They lack power and speed offensively and their completely revamped rotation should be decent, but there is not enough help elsewhere for them to be contenders.

Florida Marlins

Key Additions
Emilio Bonifacio – The Marlins did nothing this off-season, except for losing Mike Jacobs and adding Emilio Bonifacio. Bonifacio is far from a key addition, he just fills in a hole in the infield for the Marlins. In 192 career at bats, Bonifacio has hit .240/.300/.328 with 0 HR and 49 K. However, he did fairly well in the minors in 2008, hitting .314/.361/.397 in AAA. It will be interesting to see how he works out as an every day third baseman for the Marlins.

Key Players
Hanley Ramirez – Hanley Ramirez is one of the most exciting players to watch in all of baseball. Hanley will keep contributing at his usual high level for the Marlins in 2009, and he will be the reason that people still attend Marlins games.

Player To Watch
Cameron Maybin – Maybin is a 22-year old center fielder that will be playing in his first full season in 2009. In eight games at the end of 2008, Maybin it .500 (16-32) and had four steals. In AA in 2008, Maybin it .277/.374/.456 with 8 3B, 13 HR, and 21 SB in 108 games. This is only one of many young, unproven Marlins players.

Conclusion
The Marlins appear to be early in another rebuilding cycle in 2009. They were a surprise team in 2008, staying in the Wild Card race for much of the season and finishing 7 games over .500. Still, they are just too young and inexperienced to be a contender again this year.

Washington Nationals

Key Additions
Adam Dunn – In my opinion, Adam Dunn is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. He has hit exactly 40 HR in the past four seasons, and 46 in 2004. In that span he has averaged just about exactly 100 RBI, with a .382 OBP and .533 SLG. Dunn fills a massive power void for the Nationals, as they were 15th in HR and 16th in SLG in 2008.

Key Players
John Lannan – Lannan was the ace of the National’s rotation last year, going 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA. He will be 24 this year, and will probably lead the weak rotation again this year.

Player To Watch
Shairon Martis – Martis is a 22-year old pitcher from Curacao who threw the only no-hitter in World Baseball Classic history in 2006. While he has not performed well at the Major League level, he had a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the minors last year, and it will be interesting to see how he performs this year.

Conclusion
The Nationals have decent hitting, but the pitching staff will not be good this year, and they will be out of the race by mid-May.

The Verdict on the NL East
The NL East is a good division, with two of the better teams in baseball, the Mets and the Phillies. They will surely trade punches (maybe not just figuratively) throughout the year, and the race may come down to the final weekend. Still the NL Wild Card may be a good consolation prize for whoever does not come out on top.