2009 AL Central Preview

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Key Additions
Joe Crede – Last year the Twins had 6 players play over 60 innings at third base, with Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, and Mike Lamb splitting most of the playing time. At the very least, Crede should bring some stability to the position for his former division rival. Crede is very solid defensively, and if he can shake off the back problems that have plagued him at the plate since his monster year in 2006 and learn to draw more walks to improve his .306 career OBP, he could be a big addition for the Twins. Look for numbers around 20 HR and .255/.315/.470 if he can stay healthy despite the turf of the Metrodome.

Key Players
Joe Mauer – Mauer is out with a back injury and is really the cornerstone of this team. With Mauer behind the plate, the Twins are 211-170, and without him they are 52-54. He has a great on-base percentage and is a two-time batting champion. Mauer is still young, turning 26 in April, and if this back issue persists throughout the season, the Twins are in major trouble. The fact is that Mauer does a great job handling the Twins’ young pitching staff and they cannot afford to have turmoil behind the plate to start the season.

Francisco Liriano – This should be the year Liriano finally breaks out for good. His arm troubles are behind him and if he can stay healthy, he will carry this pitching staff. Liriano has a 4.94 ERA (High ERA due to 7 ER in 3.0 IP against the Red Sox) and 1.17 WHIP with 27 K in 27.1 IP this spring, and by all accounts it looks like he’ll be a bona-fide ace this year.

Player(s) To Watch
Scott Baker/Kevin Slowey – After Liriano, the Twins’ pitching staff is relatively young and unproven. Baker had a great year last year, going 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Baker has had a terrible spring, with an 6.85 ERA in 23.2 IP. Slowey was 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and is having a great spring, with a 2.21 ERA. One of these young guns will have to step up to shore up the back end of the rotation for the Twins to make a run.

Conclusion: There are a ton of question marks surrounding this team. They have a lot of youth and players either injured or coming off of injuries. However, if they can all pull it together and make it through the Mauer injury, the Twins will win this division.

Cleveland Indians

Key Additions
Mark DeRosa – The addition of Mark DeRosa plugs up a glaring hole at third base for the Indians. He can effectively play four other positions as well and is a great every day utility-man for any team. DeRosa had a career year last year with 21 HR, 87 RBI, and .285/.376/.481. Look for that type of production to continue, even if the power numbers drop slightly.

Kerry Wood – Kerry Wood plugs up another weakness for the Indians. 5 different pitchers closed a game for the Indians last year, with nobody getting more than 13 saves. It will do wonders for bullpen stability if Wood can stay healthy and give a solid 9th inning to a staff that is otherwise mediocre.

Key Players
Fausto Carmona – Behind Cliff Lee, the Indians have four pitchers who made a combined 39 starts last year. Carmona made 22 of them in an injury-plagued season. Before the game in which he was injured he was solid, going 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA. If Carmona can return to that form and his form in 2007 when he was fourth in Cy Young voting, it would be a huge help for the rotation.

Player To Watch
Travis Hafner – Hafner is coming off of shoulder surgery and is having a weak spring. The Indians are a decent hitting team even without Hafner, but if Pronk can get to 100% and return to his 2004-2006 form where he was top 10 in MVP voting two years, it could put the Indians over the top hitting-wise and help make up for the weak pitching staff.

Conclusion
The Indians expect to be in a close race for the AL Central crown with the Twins. However, the young pitching staff will probably prevent them from consistent success. Barring a repeat of Cliff Lee’s performance last year and a heroic comeback by Carmona along with a breakout year by Anthony Reyes or Scott Lewis, they will fall short.

Chicago White Sox

Key Additions
Bartolo Colon – Colon is the Key Addition simply by default; he is just about the only addition the White Sox front office made this off-season. It remains to be seen what kind of impact Colon is capable of making, if any, as he has made just 35 starts over the past three years since winning the AL Cy Young in 2005. Still, the White Sox could use a big arm in the back of the rotation and if Colon can keep up the moderate success he had in a short stint with the Red Sox last year, he would be a good addition for the White Sox.

Key Players
Jim Thome/Paul Konerko – These two are veteran leaders of the team and are coming off of somewhat rough years, where Thome hit .247/.296/.503 and Konerko hit .240/.344/.438. Thome needs to hold his power production up for one more year and Konerko needs to go back to his pre-2007 form for the White Sox to be successful.

Player To Watch
Chris Getz – Getz won the second base job this spring with the movement of Alexei Ramirez to shortstop. Getz has only seven at bats of major league experience, but he has a solid three years of college under his belt and he has done very well in the minors, hitting .302/.366/.448 at AAA Charlotte in 2008. It would be huge if Getz could step in and make an impact right away for the White Sox.

Conclusion
Like seemingly every AL Central team, there are questions surrounding the rotation. The White Sox are an aging team and will need their young players to step it up to have a chance to win the division.

Kansas City Royals

Key Additions
Coco Crisp – Crisp replaces Joey Gathright in center field, and it is a big improvement. Crisp brings with him a .280 batting average, solid defense, and perhaps most importantly, postseason experience to a young team with virtually none of it.

Mike Jacobs – Jacobs comes to the Royals from the Marlins, where he hit .247/.299/.514 last year with 32 homers and 93 RBI’s. This will add a much-needed power bat to the middle of the lineup, which was 13th in the AL in HR and 12th in SLG in 2008.

Key Players
Joakim Soria – “The Mexicutioner” had a breakout year in 2008, with a 1.60 ERA and 42 saves. Soria’s 9th inning dominance is a massive help along with the otherwise solid bullpen backing up the young pitching staff. Look for this 24-year old’s success to continue long into the future.

Player To Watch
Kyle Davies – Davies is a 25 year old pitcher who had a decent year last year after a couple years of struggling at the major league level. If he can hold his ERA steady around 4.00 and perform for the whole season, it will be a big help for a rotation with no real talent behind Gil Meche and Zack Greinke.

Conclusion
This is the broken record of the AL Central, starting pitching issues. The Royals have a solid young lineup, and if the pitching staff can step it up and collectively break out in 2009, they may be able to contend for the division crown with a little help.

Detroit Tigers

Key Additions
Edwin Jackson – Jackson comes over from the Tampa Bay Rays, where he went 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. While not impressive numbers, they still would have made him the number 2 starter for Detroit last year, whose starters had an astronomical 5.03 ERA last year.

Brandon Lyon – Unfortunately for the Tigers, their pitching struggles extend to the bullpen as well. They lost their closer Todd Jones to retirement, and Brandon Lyon is coming off of a 2008 season where he had a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. If he can return to his 2007 form of 2.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, it would be great, especially with the injury to Joel Zumaya. Still, the Tigers will have to get into a situation to actually use Lyon, which they may struggle to do on a regular basis.

Key Players
Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera is the centerpiece of a very solid Tiger lineup, and he went .292/.349/.537 in 2008 with 37 HR and 127 RBI. As great as these numbers are, the average and OBP have slipped in recent years, but Cabrera is still young and should bounce back in 2009. The Tigers were top 4 in the AL in HR, R, BA, OBP , and SLG, which they will need to repeat this year to be a contender.

Player To Watch
Justin Verlander – As documented above, this Tiger rotation performed very poorly in 2008. Verlander is a contributer to that, as he went 11-17 with a 4.68 ERA. This is after two years in which he was top 7 in AL Cy Young voting. Verlander will have to return to his 3.60-range ERA and 17-18 win form if the Tigers want any shot at a division race late in the year.

Conclusion
While the Tigers’ lineup is one of the better ones in baseball, their pitching will not be enough to help them compete this year.

The Verdict on the AL Central
This division is full of good, not great teams. Each one has questions surrounding the pitching staff. There will be no wild card team coming out of this division, and if we are lucky, we could have a three or four team race going into September