2009 AL East Preview

Well as I promised, here is the start of IHOB's 2009 Baseball Preview. We'll start with the AL East and I also have for you the NL Central. Blaine will bring you both the NL and AL West while Tom will have the NL East and AL Central. So here it is the 2009 AL East Preview:(teams are listed in the order we predict they will finish)

Boston Red Sox

Key Addition: Brad Penny

Penny will likely hold down the fifth slot in the Red Sox rotation, which makes this a great signing for the Red Sox. Penny is coming off an injury in 2008, but as a fifth starter, the pressure to succeed is not as great as it would be if he were expected to be the number one or two guy in a rotation. Penny is a pitcher who can give you about 12 wins which out of the fifth spot is something any team would like to have. If Penny is fully healthy he can give the Red Sox are very solid rotation for 2009.

Key Player: David Ortiz

Now I know it seems like I’m taking the easy way out by making Ortiz the key player, but last year Ortiz had a down year (23 home runs, 89 RBI) and battled a wrist injury for most of the year in 2008. Ortiz loses the protection that Manny Ramirez brought in the lineup and faces questions about his health. If the Red Sox want to contend for a World Series, they will need a healthy and productive Ortiz in 2009.

Player to Watch: Jed Lowrie

Lowrie won the shortstop battle over Julio Lugo this spring training and is another young prospect to come from the Red Sox farm system (following Jacoby Ellsbury, and reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia). Lowrie will have the pressure of the success of the previous prospects and the pressure that comes from playing in front of Red Sox Nation, but if he can handle that, he’ll only make the Red Sox even better. Lowrie won the job due to an injury suffered by Lugo but also Lowrie brings more versatility to the Red Sox lineup, he is a switch hitter and has the ability to play all over the infield.

Conclusion

It’s another season and since 2004 the Red Sox are contending for another World Series. They have a very solid pitching staff and bullpen to go along with a very productive and potent offense. It will be tough for them to compete all summer in the arguably the league’s best division, but they have the pieces in place to do so.

Tampa Bay Rays

Key Addition: Pat Burrell

Burrell was a player the Rays saw last year in the World Series and signed him when he became a free agent this offseason. Burrell will not be asked to play the outfield every day and will instead DH which should save his legs and allow him to be more productive for a Rays offense that lacked power last season. Burrell has hit at least 25 home runs a season since 2005, topping 30 home runs in three of those seasons. If Burrell can produce similar numbers for Tampa Bay this season, they just might wind up back in the World Series this year.

Key Player: B.J. Upton

Upton will miss the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery after the World Series. Last season Upton’s power didn’t emerge until the playoffs began, so the hope is that Upton can regain that strength he displayed in the post season to go along with speed. Upton has the ability to be a 20 home run, 40 stolen base threat and at the top of the lineup that is a dangerous combination that the Rays will hope to have as soon as possible.

Player to Watch: David Price

Price is starting the season in Triple-A Durham so the Rays can monitor his innings. They don’t want him to increase his workload by more than 20% from last year. When Price is called up, likely in May, he will take over the fifth spot in the rotation and give the Rays one of the best rotations in baseball. The majority of the American League has yet to see Price so he will have the upper hand when he faces teams for the first time, this could equal valuable wins for the Rays as teams try to learn the tendencies of Price.

Conclusion

The Rays are not going anywhere anytime soon. Unlike the other team in Florida, they front office has shown a dedication to win through their farm system and it is finally paying off. The Rays will be battling with their prospects against the checkbooks of the Red Sox and Yankees for years to come and my opinion is they will be winning many American League East crowns for years to come. They certainly have the pitching to compete this season and the offense is improved from last year. If they get a similar season from their bullpen, expect them to battle the Red Sox all the season for the AL East and the rest of the American League for that Wild Card berth.

New York Yankees

Key Additions: CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett

The Yankees went out of their way to show the economy is not harming them in any way, shape, or form. They took out the cash to lure in Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett, now the key is to hope they perform up to their massive contracts and give the Yankees the chance to win their 27th World Championship. Expect Teixeira to shine with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.

Key Player: CC Sabathia

Sabathia will become the ace of the Yankees rotation which puts pressure on him to perform well in New York. The side to this is that last year, the Milwaukee Brewers worked Sabathia like a rented mule, and the Cleveland Indians weren’t so conservative with his innings the year before that. One has to think that those innings have to catch up with Sabathia at some point and add that with the pressure of New York, he could crumble like Barry Zito did after signing his enormous contract with San Francisco Giants.

Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez

Rodriguez will join the Yankees as early as May after having hip surgery during Spring Training. Rodriguez will also certainly face scrutiny all year for taking steroids while a member of the Texas Rangers. Rodriguez says he doesn’t care what people think of him anymore but if he hits a slump late in the season when the Yankees need him most, Rodriguez might crumble. If anything Rodriguez will provide many headlines for the back pages of the New York tabloids and should provide an interesting, drama filled summer for the Bronx Bombers.

Conclusion

The Yankees are slowly turning into the Dallas Cowboys; they are trying to buy their way to a title. The Yankees have the potential to be a great team and run away and hide with the AL East. The problem however is that with the Yankees recently, drama is always circling around the clubhouse. If they get passed the drama and distractions this team will win, there is no question to that, the problem is they aren’t likely to go long stretches without distractions.

Toronto Blue Jays

Key Addition: No One

The Blue Jays did not add anyone this offseason but they have Brad Mills, a prospect stepping to pitch out of the fifth spot in the rotation. Mills’ minor league stats through two seasons in the minors consist of a 15-5 record and a 1.96 ERA, while striking out 180 over 165.1 innings. Mills’ future seems bright but will have a tough time pitching in the offensive minded AL East.

Key Player: B.J. Ryan

Ryan is key for the Blue Jays due to the fact they need him to stay healthy. They don’t need to reshuffle their bullpen due to another injury to Ryan. He seems to be iffy coming out of Spring Training yet again but his health is a key to the Blue Jays having a respectful season.

Player to Watch: Aaron Hill

Hill battled effects of a concussion last season, but expect big things from him this season. He just turned 27, so he is entering his prime. He was about to become a household name for second baseman two years ago but the concussion derailed that. Hill is on the brink of being one of the top second baseman in the game so keep an eye on him.

Conclusion

The Blue Jays came out and said they weren’t going to spend any money this offseason and they held true to their word. But because of this they really don’t have any shot at competing for post season play. They will instead be in battle for last place with the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles

Key Addition: Rich Hill

This is a stretch as a key addition but the Orioles just added absolutely no one this offseason. Hill is starting the season on the DL, but when he is healthy he will be the Orioles number two starter. Hill isn’t cut out to be a number two starter yet in his career and only time will tell if he will develop into one, but he can give the Orioles 10 wins in a full season so look for him down the road to be a part of that rotation just not at the top.

Key Player: Matt Wieters

The uber prospect Wieters will start the year in Triple-A Norfolk, but when he is called up, the pressure will be on for him to live up to the hype he’s faced this winter. Wieters is regarded as the best hitting prospect, and is a switch hitting catcher, a talent at a position that is rarely seen. Wieters will most likely live up to the hype and become the face of the Orioles franchise and part of the young foundation that is taking shape in Baltimore.

Player to Watch: Ryan Freel

Freel is most likely going to be starting as a bench player but he will have the ability to take over left field if he gets playing time. Freel has the tools to be a great player but he’ll even admit that he never had a full-time role at one position, which will make it hard for a player to come to the ballpark every day ready to go when he doesn’t know where he is going to be playing or if he’s going to be playing. If he gets a shot, he’ll be starting eventually, his combination of speed and power is just too much to sit on the bench and be a utility player.

Conclusion

The Orioles are rebuilding, there is no hiding that. They have a very solid young core in place in Nick Markakis, Wieters, Adam Jones, mixed in with veterans Aubrey Huff, Brian Roberts, and Melvin Mora; they will have a formidable offense. What is holding the Orioles back is pitching; they just have none of it. Once they develop some pitchers in their system or make a signing or two, they will be able to compete a lot like the Rays.