Saturday, March 20, 2010

AL Central Preview

The baseball preview continues, moving from the West to the Central as I take a look at the AL Central for the 2010 season. As a reminder the teams appear in order of expected finish looking at a key addition, key player, and player to watch.

Chicago White Sox

Same Face, New Place: Juan Pierre. When the White Sox acquired Pierre, I'll admit I was mixed on this move. The more I think about it, the more I love it and that's because he's had two seasons where he essentially didn't play so his legs are well rested. He also brings the ability to bunt, something Ozzie Guillen loves to do but hasn't been able to with his teams recently. He's going to be asked to set the table and cause chaos for the pitchers similar to what Scott Podsednik did for the Sox in 2005. Ozzie plans to run this team all over the base paths and acquiring Pierre will help Ozzie run the team the way he wants to.

Key Player: Alex Rios. Rios was acquired off waivers during last season and to put it nicely, struggled with the White Sox. He hit .199, with a .229 OBP, and an OPS of .530 (alright he was just flat out awful). Reports are that he's much more comfortable in the clubhouse now and has rediscovered his swing that made him an all-star in Toronto. The Sox lack that prototypical power hitter right now and that means the pressure will be put on Rios and Carlos Quentin to rebound from poor 2009's. The one bright spot for Rios last year is that he stole 24 bases between Toronto and Chicago, so if he can rediscover his swing and pair it with his base stealing he'll be a real weapon for the Sox this season.

Player to Watch: Gordon Beckham. For the first time in a while this is the first year where the Sox don't have a young prospect coming up with a few question marks surrounding him. So with that I have to default to Beckham who should continue to build on his impressive rookie season. It's important to see how he handles all the expectations being thrown on him and he didn't hit as well at U.S. Cellular Field as he did on the road and he needs to learn to use the home ballpark to his advantage.

Final Verdict: The strength of the White Sox rests in the arms of the pitching staff. Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy front a staff that could be the best in baseball by the end of the season. Bobby Jenks should be stable at the end of the bullpen and J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton should be excellent options to shorten a game for Ozzie Guillen. The offense is where the questions are for this team, but if Andruw Jones continues to hit like he is in Spring Training, the DH-rotation might be a better idea than many are giving Guillen credit for. What seems to be a bigger issue every day is the relationship of Guillen and Kenny Williams, they should realize to put aside any differences that they may have and focus on the job at hand, and if they do that this team could be very dangerous this season.

Minnesota Twins

Same Face, New Place: Orlando Hudson. When the Twins signed Hudson, I was both angry and surprised. Surprised because the Twins were opening the checkbook to sign some serious talent. I was angry because Hudson is such a good player and will help this team out in many ways. Hudson is a gold glove defender and a great #2 hitter who will fit Ron Gardenhire's style of baseball. Hudson will also provide a great role model for someone like Delmon Young who shows his immaturity at times.
Key Player: The Closer Role. I don't have a specific name for this slot because no one including myself knows who is going to close for the Twins yet. If Joe Nathan is able to pitch through the pain that he has in his arm, the question becomes how effective will he be while hurt? If he can't pitch then a position that has been held down by Nathan, becomes someone's that hasn't closed games before or may not be as effective. Nathan was such a big security blanket for Gardenhire, as every time he came into the game it was pretty much over. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins look to trade for an established closer when the trade deadline looms and could be a major reason why the Twins don't win the division.

Player to Watch: Brian Duensing. On paper, the Twins rotation doesn't seem all that intimidating, but when you watch these guys pitch, they're effective. The same could be said about Duensing, another guy the Twins have developed. He started nine games last season and had a 3.64 ERA, pretty impressive for a guy in his rookie year. If he can build on that success he'll be a very good #5 starter for the Twins.

Final Verdict: The Twins open up Target Field this season and the biggest question for the Twins is how will the Twins handle the new stadium environment. Offensively, the Twins will be their usual aggressive selves and play fundamental baseball, which is always exciting to watch and as the Twins have shown is how you win ballgames. Pitching is a concern with the Twins, The staff lacks that typical dominant ace that many staffs have, but that has not been a problem for the Twins in recent years. The real problem will come from the bullpen if Nathan misses the season. Forcing the relievers to move up a slot is usually a sign of disaster, but knowing the Twins, pitching coach, Rick Anderson will find the man for the job and he'll end up saving 30-40 games and keep the Twins competitive for the 2010 season.

Detroit Tigers

Same Face, New Place: Johnny Damon. Damon was involved in quite the free agent process this offseason and the Tigers are the ones that eventually paid Damon the amount he wanted. If Damon can hit with the same power that he had last year, he'll help the Tigers out immensely. He'll also likely silence the critics that said he benefited from the short fence at Yankee Stadium last year, namely the Yankees front office.

Key Player: Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez' power numbers took a major hit in 2009, going from 21 home runs to 9 and 103 RBI to 50. The Tigers are likely going to look for those numbers to go back up, unfortunately for them, those numbers seem to be in decline. The bright spot for Ordonez is his AVG and OBP have been increasing since his time with the Tigers started. He posted a .310 AVG and a .376 OBP last season. If Jim Leyland recognizes that the power may be gone from Ordonez' bat, a move up or down the order might be the right move for Maggs and will allow the Tigers to get more men on base and generate some more runs.

Player to Watch: Austin Jackson. Jackson came to the Tigers from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson trade and many people compare Jackson to Granderson. That's something the Tigers hope since he'll be replacing Granderson in centerfield this season. Jackson has shown the ability to hit for a high average and steal some bases while in the minors. It'll be a nice sight for Miguel Cabrera if Jackson is on base a lot and he should provide a spark at the top of the lineup for the Tigers.

Final Verdict: The Tigers made some moves this off-season that many people liked, I however am not that positive on the moves. Trading Edwin Jackson really hurt their rotation; getting Max Scherzer is risky because although he has great potential he hasn't been able to control his pitches in the majors yet. Trading Jackson also forced Rick Porcello to assume the #2 spot in the rotation, a large task for someone only in his 2nd year of baseball. The bullpen should be one of the best in the AL Central providing Leyland many options at the end of games. The offense, like the rest of the AL Central really doesn't pack that much of a punch outside of Cabrera. There are still a lot of athletes in that lineup and it will be the reason they are in the race at the end of the season.

Kansas City Royals

Same Face, New Place: The 2009 Chicago White Sox. The Royals will be going into 2010 with at least three (possibly four) members of the White Sox from a season ago. Scott Podsednik, Chris Getz, and Josh Fields will all be on the Royals this season and Brian Anderson has an outside chance at making the roster. The White Sox clearly did not bring these players back for some reason, and it could be because they didn't win with them. The Royals are looking to cash in on the unwanted White Sox and Podsednik and Getz could be valuable pieces for them in 2010. Podsednik hit for a .303 AVG and stole 30 bases last season, if he can improve his on-base percentage he'll be a real problem for opposing pitchers at the top of the lineup.

Key Player & Player to Watch: Luke Hochevar. Hochevar had an interesting 2009 campaign, in nine starts he allowed at least six earned runs and in eight outings he held opposing offenses to only two earned runs. If the Royals want to think about competing he'll have to be more consistent. A sign that consistency may be on the horizon for Hochevar is that he improved both his K/9 and BB/9 rates and is improving his groundouts to flyouts ratio. He's my pick to also break out in a big way this season for the Royals.


[Side Note: I was going to go with Alex Gordon as my player to watch, but his broken thumb is a cause for concern as Josh Fields may make the most of his opportunity to start.]

Final Verdict: The fourth place finish is actually better than what it seems. I actually see them competing with the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers this season and making the AL Central a 4-team race all summer. There is no doubt that the biggest question for the Royals is the pitching staff but there is potential there to breakout. The bullpen lacks a little depth behind Joakim Soria but Farnsworth and Cruz should be a formidable duo for Trey Hillman to use. To me the strength of this team is going to be the offense behind Billy Butler and David DeJesus and I think Rick Ankiel bounces back from a bad 2009. They probably won't win the division but the Royals are definitely improving.

Cleveland Indians

Same Face, New Place: Russell Branyan. Branyan is back with the Indians after an impressive 2009 season with the Seattle Mariners where he hit 31 home runs. Branyan will be in a lineup that will likely mash a lot of home runs this season so he'll be asked to do more of the same, but he needs to improve his average and on-base percentage so the Indians have more guys on base when those home runs leave the park.

Key Players: Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona. Westbrook is coming back from Tommy John Surgery and is slated as the Opening Day starter for the Indians. If he can find his 2004-2006 form where he won 14 games and then 15 games the next two seasons then the Indians will be thrilled and he'll likely win comeback player of the year. Carmona is coming off a forgettable 2009 season where he won only 5 games and had an ERA over 6. The Indians will need him to rediscover his 2007 form and that'll only come if he regains control over his pitches.

Player to Watch: Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was the highly touted prospect that the Indians received in the CC Sabathia trade and since then LaPorta hasn't really been given a chance to prove himself. LaPorta is currently in-between positions, manager Manny Acta would like him to play mostly at 1B while GM Mark Shapiro would rather see him in Left Field. Wherever LaPorta winds up, he'll finally get a full season to prove himself and I think he's going to show some people why the Indians are trying to find a position for him to play full-time.

Final Verdict: Unfortunately for the Indians they have quite a few questions for the 2010 season. The pitching staff has holes from the rotation to the bullpen. Kerry Wood can't be trusted to close games consistently and the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. The offense will win some games for the Tribe with Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo leading the way. It could be a long season for Indians fans, but I don't think it'll be as bad as it was for the Indians teams in Major League.

Friday, March 19, 2010

NL West Preview

It may be time for March Madness, but baseball season is right around the corner!

Los Angeles Dodgers
2009: 95-67, 1st place in the division, lost in NLCS
Key Additions: None, due to the divorce of the McCourt family tying up all of the Dodger funds.
Key Losses: Juan Pierre, Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf
The Lineup: In 2009 the Dodgers led the league in batting average while having no regular starter achieve a .300+ average, a relatively impressive feat. However they do lose part-timer Juan Pierre and his .308 average to the White Sox and have added aging Garret Anderson and Reed Johnson to form a somewhat crowded outfield. The young nucleus of James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier all had an OBP over .350 last year and should only improve in 2010. Overall production may come down to the play of Manny Ramirez, who will turn 38 in May and saw his slugging percentage drop 70 points last year in a season shortened by his steroid suspension.
The Rotation: The Dodgers starting staff had the third lowest ERA in the NL behind the Braves and Giants in 2009. They lose ace Randy Wolf and his 214.1 innings and 3.23 ERA. The front four in the rotation are decided: Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Vicente Padilla. With the tightening of money the Dodgers were not able to go out and grab a serviceable fifth and there will be a competition between Eric Stults, Charlie Haeger, and Carlos Monasterios for the final spot, which could end up rotating between the three all season. There is more youth in the rotation with Kershaw and Billingsley but the combination of Kuroda and Padilla at three and four along with a lack of stability at the fifth could hurt the Dodgers in the long run.
The Bullpen: Closer Jonathan Broxton headlines 2009’s best bullpen as he is coming off of a 36 save, 0.96 WHIP season. Reliable set-up men Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario, and Guillermo Mota return as does lefty specialist George Sherrill, who threw up a 0.65 ERA in the second half of the season with the Dodgers. Expect this bullpen to be as good as ever in 2010.
The Verdict: The Dodgers will certainly be hurt by the lack of new blood in the clubhouse but they return the youthful heart of the team from last year and should be the favorites in the West.

Colorado Rockies
2009: 92-70, 2nd place in the division, lost in the NLDS
Key Additions: The return of Jeff Francis
Key Losses: Jason Marquis
The Lineup: In 2009 the Rockies were only able to muster a .261 batting average but put together a .784 OPS that led the league in what is still a hitter-friendly Coors Field. Young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will be looking at a starting job this year as he hit .284/.353/.525 with 13 HR and 16 SB in just 278 AB at the end of last season.
The Rotation: The Rockies pitching staff is coming off of a season in which they allowed the least runs in franchise history. The starting rotation was 6th in the National League with just a 4.10 ERA. However, four of the five in the rotation last year had career years and Marquis and his 15-13 record and 4.04 ERA have left for the Nationals. Jeff Francis will be replacing him in the rotation, returning after missing all of 2009 with shoulder surgery. If he returns to his 2007 form where he went 17-9 with a 4.22 ERA, the rotation should be just as good as last year and the Rockies will be in contention for a playoff spot.
The Bullpen: Closer Huston Street is the lone bright spot to a bullpen that finished 13th in the NL in ERA in 2009. No additions or subtractions have really been made to the rotation and if the rotation regresses to their normal abilities, the Rockies could be in trouble. They are fortunate that the best three in the ‘pen (Street, Matt Daley, and Franklin Morales) are all young and should theoretically keep improving.
The Verdict: The Rockies are a good team that over-achieved in 2009 when they won the wild card by 4 games. A good comeback by Jeff Francis and breakout year for Carlos Gonzalez could do the trick, but everyone will have to carry their momentum from last season for the Rockies to be successful.

San Francisco Giants
2009: 88-74, 3rd place in the division
Key Additions: Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff
Key Losses: Old Man Randy Winn
The Lineup: The Giants scored a meager 4.06 runs per game in 2009, good for 4th lowest in the National League. The lone offensive bright spot comes in the form of the Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval. The twenty-two year old Sandoval burst onto the scene in 2009, hitting .330/.387/.556 with 25 HR and 90 RBI. Unfortunately outside of Juan Uribe, this .330 average was 65 points better than any other regular. The Giants have added Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff to the lineup, two players who are coming off of rough 2009 seasons after good 2008 campaigns. Their resurgence will be key to the Giants’ hitting this season.
The Rotation: Fortunately for the Giants, they have one of the best rotations in the league and it will have to make up for the inadequacies of their hitting. The one-two punch of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain is one of the best in baseball, coming off of a season where they went a combined 29-15 with a 2.48 and 2.89 ERA, respectively. The only departure from the rotation is the retired Randy Johnson, who capped off his career with an 8-6 record and 4.88 ERA. He will likely be replaced by Madison Bumgarner, a hot shot 20-year old prospect who has torn up the minor leagues, posting a sub-2.00 ERA at every stop along the way, including a 9-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in AA last season. Bumgarner was named the #9 prospect in the MLB last season and could be the next stud in the line of studs produced by the Giants in recent years. However, his velocity has been down this spring and he may not quite be ready for major league baseball.
The Bullpen: The Giants bullpen posted a 3.49 ERA last season, good for second in the league. The main cast of characters will be back including closer Brian Wilson (2.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 38 SV), Jeremy Affeldt (1.73 ERA, 62.1 IP in 74 App.), and Brandon Meddors (3.01 ERA, 7.6 K/9). The Giants bullpen is often times put in tough spots, often coming in to close out a fantastic pitching performance by the starter but with only a slight lead due to the lack of offense in San Francisco.
The Verdict: Until the Giants start hitting the baseball, they will be in a tough position in the NL West. And until they make some additions to the lineup, they will not start hitting the baseball. This could be another frustrating year for Giants fans.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2009: 70-92, 5th place in the division
Key Additions: The return of Brandon Webb, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
Key Losses: Jon Garland, Doug Davis, The addition of Aaron Heilman
The Lineup: The Diamondbacks had an entirely average lineup in 2009, hitting .253/.324/.418 as a team while scoring 4.44 runs per game. The cornerstone of the offense is outfielder Justin Upton, who hit .300/.366/.532 with 26 HR and 20 SB. Third baseman Mark Reynolds hit 44 HR with 102 RBI in 2009 while striking out an absolutely astonishing 223 times and hitting a dismal .260. The line-up should be bolstered by the additions of Adam LaRoche (.277/.355/.488, 25 HR) and Kelly Johnson (.287/.349/.446 in 2008).
The Rotation: The Diamondbacks had an average rotation in 2009 and have a vastly improved rotation coming into 2010. The key is the return of ace Brandon Webb, who missed all of 2009 with a shoulder injury and may even miss the start of 2010. Webb and Dan Haren give the Diamondbacks a stellar one-two punch and the addition of Edwin Jackson in the third spot adds a little bit of depth. Former Yankee prospect Ian Kennedy should get the fourth spot and the fifth is up for grabs, but the front of the rotation is good enough to keep the Diamondbacks in contention for much of the year.
The Bullpen: Last season the Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in the National League, but it should be slightly improved going into 2010. Closer Chad Qualls returns and he has a new set-up man in Bob Howry, who had a 3.39 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 63.2 IP out of the bullpen for the Giants last season. Unfortunately the Diamondbacks also add Aaron Heilman, who still did a lot better than I give him credit for with the Cubs last year.
The Verdict: The Diamondbacks made some good additions going into 2010 and if they stay healthy they have an outside chance at challenging for the division.

San Diego Padres
2009: 75-87, 4th place in the division
Key Additions: Jon Garland
Key Losses: None
The Lineup: The Padres were 7th in the NL in runs scored on the road as opposed to dead last overall, a number that is hurt by the fact that they play in the worst hitter’s park in the majors. The headliner of the line-up is Adrian Gonzalez, coming off of a year in which he hit .277/.407/.551 with an impressive 40 HR-12 at home and 28 on the road. The rest of the Padres line-up is young including Kyle Blanks, who is coming off of an injury-shortened rookie campaign in which he had a .868 OPS and 10 HR in just under 150 at bats. Hitting will certainly not be the strong point of the Padres this season.
The Rotation: In 2009, Padres starters combined for a 4.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, pathetic numbers for a team playing half of its games in Petco Park. Overall they had the worst road ERA in the NL. These numbers were not helped by the losses of Jake Peavy (trade) and Chris Young (injury) for most of the season. The addition of Jon Garland and the return of Chris Young should help the Padres eat some innings and buy time for the young pitchers to come along, but it is not a terribly stimulating rotation no matter how you look at it.
The Bullpen: Heath Bell is coming off of a good season for both himself and my fantasy team, as he got 42 saves for a mediocre team with a 2.71 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The rest of the more or less league-average bullpen stays the same.
The Verdict: I was bored doing the research for this team and most people will be bored watching them play baseball this season. The Padres are a young team without a lot of money that over-achieved in 2009 and still managed to lose 87 games. This year will be used to determine the future nucleus of the club going forward.

Weekend Soccer Preview

Another edition of the Weekend Soccer Preview!
As always, home team listed first, all times Eastern.

Before we get to the rankings, I want to acknowledge Fulham’s stunning comeback in the Europa League. Fulham came home with a 3-1 deficit to Juventus. Juventus got an early goal from David Trezuguet to put Fulham down 4-1 on aggregate. However, goals from Bobby Zamora and two from Zoltan Gera bought Fulham to 4-4 on aggregate and a wonder strike from Clint Dempsey in the 82nd minute put the Cottagers through to the quaterfinals.

Game of the Week (Rankings from Poll)
9:30 ET Sunday
(3) Manchester United v Liverpool
The always intense northwest England rivalry strikes once again at a crucial point in the season for both sides. Manchester United are still perched atop the Premier League, 2 points ahead of both Chelsea and Arsenal, though Chelsea has a game in hand. Liverpool are chasing down a Champions League qualifying spot, just a point behind fourth-placed Tottenham, who has one game in hand, and a point ahead of Manchester City and two ahead of Aston Villa, both of whom have two games in hand. As such, a loss for Liverpool would cripple their Champions League aspirations. Still, they are coming off of mid-week success in the UEFA Europa League, a competition in which they are going full steam ahead in hopes of salvaging some kind of silverware from this tempestuous season. A win for United gives them a boost ahead of a tough five game stretch including Chelsea, Manchester City, and Tottenham Hotspur.

Other Games Between Two Ranked Teams
16:00 ET Sunday
(T23) Marseille v (22) Lyon
In early November, these two teams played to a stunning 5-5 draw that included 5 goals in the last 11 minutes as Lyon battled back from a 4-2 deficit to take a 5-4 lead and ultimately be stuck with a draw on a Jeremy Toulalan own goal. This match carries heavy European consequences, as outlined below.

Top of the Table Clashes
12:00 ET Sunday (French Ligue 1)
(9) Bordeaux v Lille
16:00 ET Sunday
(T23) Marseille v (22) Lyon

ClubPld.Pts.
Bordeaux2753
Montpellier2853
AJ Auxerre2852
Lille2851
Lyon2851
Marseille2750


Ligue 1 is as congested as it gets up top, with the top six teams separated by a scant 3 points. Four of those teams clash this weekend as Bordeaux hosts Lille and Marseille hosts Lyon. The top 3 teams are guaranteed a spot in the Champions League while the 4th team is guaranteed a spot in the Europa League and 5th place will likely get a spot there as well. A win for Lille would be huge as it would bring Bordeaux fully back to the pack due to their game in hand. The Lyon-Marseille match-up is sure to be hard-fought as both teams are on the outside looking into Europe at the moment.

Big Games in Small Leagues
13:00 ET Sunday (Greek Super League)
Panathinaikos v Olympiakos
PAOK Salonika v AEK Athens

Panathinaikos is currently on top of the Greek Super League with a 5 point lead over PAOK Salonika. Olympiakos is two points back in third and AEK Athens is 9 points back of Olympiakos. The Panathinaikos-Olympiakos match is the heavy rivalry, dubbed the “Derby of the Eternal Enemies” in what has to be the greatest rivalry name I’ve ever heard. The two clubs are based out of Athens and are generally fighting for the title in the league. The rivalry is so fierce that a clash between the supporters caused a two week suspension of all team sports in Greece back in 2007. Olympiakos needs a win to stay in the title race in Greece and move up the table, as only the top two get Champions League qualification.

13:00 ET Saturday (Austrian Bundesliga)
Sturm Graz v Rapid Vienna
10:30 ET Sunday (Austrian Bundesliga)
Austria Vienna v SV Salzburg

Salzburg is at the top of the Austrian Bundesliga by 6 points over second place Rapid Vienna. Just 3 points back of Rapid are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna. The first place team gets the lone Champions League spot while second and third get Europa League spots so these games are vital for next season’s European qualification.

English Premier League
8:45 ET Saturday
(17) Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers
11:00 ET Saturday
Everton v Bolton Wanderers
Portsmouth v Hull City
Stoke City v (10) Tottenham Hotspur
Sunderland v Birmingham
Wigan v Burnley
13:30 ET Saturday
(5) Arsenal v West Ham
9:30 ET Sunday
(3) Manchester United v Liverpool
11:00 ET Sunday
Fulham v (14) Manchester City
12:00 ET Sunday
Blackburn Rovers v (2) Chelsea

Scottish Premier League
11:00 ET Saturday
Celtic v St. Johnstone

Spain’s La Liga
13:00 ET Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Getafe
Deportivo La Coruna v Valladolid
Xerez v Tenerife
15:00 ET Saturday
(4) Real Madrid v Sporting Gijon
17:00 ET Saturday
Espanyol v (25) Sevilla FC
12:00 ET Sunday
Malaga v Villarreal
Mallorca v Atletico Madrid
Osasuna v Racing Santander
14:00 ET Sunday
(T12) Valencia v Almeria
16:00 ET Sunday
Real Zaragoza v (1) Barcelona

Italy’s Serie A
13:00 ET Saturday
(T23) Fiorentina v Genoa
15:45 ET Saturday
(18) AS Roma v Udinese
Palermo v (6) Inter Milan
10:00 ET Sunday
(7) AC Milan v Napoli
Atalanta v Livorno
Bari v Parma
Cagliari v Lazio
Chievo Verona v Catania
Siena v Bologna
15:45 ET Sunday
Sampdoria v Juventus

German Bundesliga
15:30 ET Friday
FC Cologne v Borussia Monchengladbach
10:30 ET Saturday
Eintracht Frankfurt v (8) Bayern Munich
Nurnberg v TSG Hoffenheim
SC Freiburg v Mainz
VfB Stuttgart v Hannover 96
Werder Bremen v VfL Bochum
13:30 ET Saturday
Borussia Dortmund v (11) Bayer Leverkusen
10:30 ET Sunday
Hamburg SV v (T12) Schalke 04
12:30 ET Sunday
VfL Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin

French Ligue 1
14:00 ET Saturday
AJ Auxerre v Le Mans
Boulogne v Lorient
Grenoble v AS Monaco
Nice v Paris Saint-Germain
St. Etienne v AS Nancy Lorraine
Stade Rennes v Toulouse
16:00 ET Saturday
Lens v Sochaux
12:00 ET Sunday
(9) Bordeaux v Lille
(T20) Montpellier v Valenciennes
16:00 ET Sunday
(T23) Marseille v (22) Lyon

Dutch Eredivisie
15:45 ET Friday
Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen
14:45 ET Saturday
PSV Eindhoven v (T15) Twente Enschede
15:45 ET Saturday
Feyenoord Rotterdam v Vitesse Arnhem
7:30 ET Sunday
RKC Waalwijk v (19) Ajax Amsterdam
9:30 ET Sunday
Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar

Russian Premier League
9:30 ET Saturday
Saturn Moscow v Sibir Novosibirsk
12:00 ET Saturday
Lokomotiv Moscow v PFK Samara Kryliya Sovetov
7:00 ET Sunday
Zenit St. Petersburg v Spartak Moscow
9:30 ET Sunday
CSKA Moscow v Dinamo Moscow
8:00 ET Monday
FK Tom’ Tomsk v FK Rubin Kazan

Turkish Super League
14:00 ET Friday
Kasimpasa v Besiktas
13:00 ET Saturday
Fenerbahce v Gaziantepspor
13:00 ET Sunday
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray

Greek Super League
13:00 ET Sunday
Panathinaikos v Olympiakos
PAOK Salonika v AEK Athens

Ukrainian Premier League
13:00 ET Friday
Metalurh Donetsk v Dynamo Kyiv
10:00 ET Saturday
Zorya v Shakhtar Donetsk

Belgian Jupiler League
15:00 ET Sunday
Germinal Beerschot v Club Brugge
KSC Lokeren v Anderlecht
Standard Liege v KAA Gent

Austrian Bundesliga
13:00 ET Saturday
Sturm Graz v Rapid Vienna
10:30 ET Sunday
Austria Vienna v SV Salzburg

Swiss Super League
12:45 ET Saturday
Young Boys v Grasshoppers

Welsh Premier League
10:30 ET Saturday
Llanelli v Rhyl

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Monte Carlo Simulation-A Lineup of Nine Joe Mauers!

In this post we will examine what would happen if you had an entire lineup comprised of one player, i.e. a lineup with nine Joe Mauers or Ryan Howards. This problem has been tackled before, most notably with Bill James’ Runs Created statistic. However, Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to give an even more accurate idea of how a lineup consisting entirely of one player would perform. Monte Carlo Simulation is used when there are copious amounts of possible outcomes and conventional simulation is not adequate.

An Excel spreadsheet can be used to perform the simulation and a player’s statistics can be put into the sheet so probabilities of various outcomes. There are 17 possible outcomes to each plate appearance: Strikeout, walk, HBP, error, short/medium/long single, short/long double, triple, home run, ground out, ground into double play (with men on base), line drive/infield fly, and short/medium/long fly out. Innings are simulated and the number of runs scored per inning (and by extension, game) can be recorded. The obvious upside to this method is that a true simulation is used, which should be much more accurate than basing it off of plain old statistics. The downside is that there is no way (currently) to factor in steals and players who can advance the extra base on a base hit better than other players. However, this should not have a significant effect on the study. The players who were in the top 10 for Batting Value in 2009 according to fangraphs.com were examined. A total of 1440 innings, or 160 “games” were simulated for each player. The table of results follows:

PlayerRuns/Game
Albert Pujols10.24
Joe Mauer9.90
Prince Fielder8.71
Hanley Ramirez8.45
Mark Teixeira8.00
Ben Zobrist7.83
Adrian Gonzalez7.76
Miguel Cabrera7.68
Derrek Lee7.64
Ryan Braun7.55


The results are not very surprising. Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were the MVPs of their respective leagues and by a considerable margin the best offensive players in Major League Baseball. For perspective, the average runs scored per game in the NL was 4.43, and in the AL it was 4.82.

These numbers can be used to roughly gauge a player’s value. With them, we can examine which statistics are most highly correlated with Runs/Game as given by Monte Carlo Simulation, so we can examine which statistics are most important to a team’s success. The results will likely tell us nothing new, but it will be interesting nonetheless.

Two statistics had correlations over .9: OBP and OPS. Remember the closer the correlation is to 1, the more related the two statistics are.

StatisticCorrelation
AVG0.579
OBP0.928
SLG0.796
OPS0.922
Hits0.244
HR0.258
Walks0.356


This should not surprise any good stat-minded baseball fan. On-Base Percentage has the highest correlation and OPS is just behind. Slugging Percentage is the only other statistically significant correlation, which is of little surprise as well. Here are the scatter plots of Average Runs/Game against OBP and AVG. Note that “Average” is the R/G from the table above.





As you can see, there is a fairly strong linear relationship between R/G and OBP, while the relationship between R/G and AVG is considerably more scattered.

Interesting Baseball Fact of the Day: The lowest single-season ERA for a pitcher who gave up more than one hit per inning (since 1961) was Tommy John in 1977. Tommy John gave up 225 hits in 220.1 IP en route to a 2.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20-7 record and a second place spot in the Cy Young voting.

Ovechkin's Suspension: Fair or Excessive?

Alex Ovechkin was suspended yesterday for his "hit" on Brian Campbell Sunday that led to Campbell reportedly breaking his collarbone and ribs. When the 2 game suspension was announced the debate began whether or not the suspension was fair or even necessary. A TSN online poll indicated that a large majority of people believe the suspension wasn't severe enough and I guess that puts me in the minority that believes the suspension wasn't even necessary. Now let me say that it's really unfortunate that Campbell will likely be out for the remainder of the season, but it was a freak incident.

I think that the 5 min. major and game misconduct Ovechkin received on Sunday was punishment enough for a player who is unfortunately being labeled as a dirty player as time progresses. There didn't appear to be any malicious intent in the push by Ovechkin which makes this suspension even worse. Ovechkin plays the game hard and for whatever reasons, that rubs people the wrong way. I acknowledge that it was a dangerous play which is why I think the penalty was needed, but a hit should have been expected by Campbell as hits come on plays like that all the time.

I think that the NHL has more to worry about when it comes to dirty hits on the heads of players rather than a push into the boards. Those types of hits are ones that while legal are  more harmful because of the possibility of concussions and the lasting effects that concussions have on people. When Matt Cooke took out Marc Savard with a headshot, that led to no punishment whatsoever. Now how can that hit not warrant a suspension but an unfortunate push land one of the stars of the league a 2-game break?

This suspension also has people focusing on the wrong things in the NHL. A sport should be generally celebrated and the NHL seems to only make news when a player is suspended, and while I generally believe that no news is bad news, having suspensions being the highlight of your sport isn't right. You need to focus the attention of the world on the actual games, the stars, and teams of the league that are playing well, not suspending the reason people watch your sport.

A Comprehensive Weekly Look at the Top Teams In European Soccer

Another week of European Soccer Rankings! What follows is an unabridged, only slightly edited for grammar introduction written by the one and only Blaine Curcio.

Good morning, buon giorno, buenas dias, guten tag, and bonjour, and welcome to another edition of football rankings as prepared by Tom “Purdue Pete” Nielsen and Blaine “Sachin Tendulkar’s Newest Fan” Curcio. Before going into details about the wild week that was, I feel it necessary to mention that David “Pig-Dog” Beckham’s world cup chances are now over due to an Achilles injury, and I’ve consequently been celebrating ever since. Of course, the biggest event in European football this week was the second leg of the Champions’ League round of 16 matches. Tuesday evening saw Bayern Munich lose to Fiorentina 3-2, but advance on 4-4 aggregate with the away goals rule. Tom seemed to believe this makes Germany look good, [Editor’s (Tom’s) Note: I don’t think this necessarily makes Germany look good, but Blaine likes Italy so much and dislikes the Bundesliga so much that I had to rub it in his face via Facebook post-match.] I think that Fiorentina is a rubbish Italian side [He still has them ranked 21st] and the fact that the Bundesliga’s best needed away goals to beat them is sad, and a reflection on the league’s inferiority. Arsenal decided to shatter the men of F.C. Porto with a 5-0 bloodbath at the Emirates, which saw at least three Portuguese jump in front of London double-decker busses after the match due to manic depression. Porto folded about 45 minutes later, and are no longer in existence (that was a lie). Arsenal’s match saw Nicklas Bendtner and his silent “d” in his last name score a hattrick, and saw Arsene Wenger’s legend grow to the status of hero among men. Wednesday night’s CL fixtures were massively hyped going in, with Manchester United owning a 3-2 lead over AC Milan (with 3 away goals) and Lyon coming in as the shocking favorite, having beaten Real Madrid 1-0 in Lyon. United were originally to be playing without the man who is currently the most electrifying man in sports entertainment (a title bestowed upon him by The Rock), Wayne Rooney, due to an injury sustained while saving orphans from a fire. Rooney had a miraculous death-bed recovery the morning of the match, and went out and scored a double, cementing his reputation as the Greek God of premature balding and making world-class keepers look like Paul Robinson. Lyon-Real Madrid ended in a 1-1 draw, which saw Real Madrid ousted from the CL and Florentino Perez put his foot in his mouth after having spent approximately €1 trillion (or roughly infinity Filipino Pesos) on transfers this past offseason, with the intention of winning the Champions’ League. Liverpool continued their miserable season with a 1-0 loss to Lille in the Europa League, which saw Rafael Benitez punch Liverpool owner Tom Hicks in the mouth for lack of transfer funds. This week in the premiership was a fairly standard one. Manchester United’s fans found themselves doing the “easy! easy! easy!” chant after their 3-0 drubbing of Fulham, while Chelsea continued to roll with a 4-1 win over bottom-dwelling (but still legendary because of the cinematic excellence of Green Street Hooligans) West Ham United. By the way, for the record, Wayne Rooney scored yet another brace in their win over Fulham, and continues to go about doing the business of kicking ass and taking names. Arsenal was able to pull off a respectable away victory at Hull City 2-1, while Everton and Birmingham played to a 2-2 draw in B’Ham. Tottenham Hotspur continues to loiter in 4th place (something that would result in a $1,000 fine in Singapore) with a win over Blackburn Rovers. In La Liga the results were not terribly interesting, with Real Madrid cruising to a 4-1 win over Valladolid. Barcelona played vs. 3rd place Valencia at home, which had some potential to be a decent match given Valencia’s respectability. Lionel Messi would have none of that though, and scored a second-half hattrick, stealing the hearts of a thousand Spanish women in the process. This means that Valencia is now in 3rd with 47 points, while Barca and Real are tied at the top with 65. Yes, you read that correctly, they could both go 6 matches without getting a single point, and still be at least tied at the top of the table with Valencia. That’s called parity, my friends. Vegas now puts Real or Barca as winning La Liga as a 103% chance to happen. That’s not an exaggeration, either (yes it is). One of the more interesting things to happen this week was Serie A’s decision to give up on the traditionally defensive style of Italian football entirely, and just go hog-wild scoring goals! The following scorelines, among others, were observed this week in Serie A: 5-3, 3-3, 3-3, 3-2. The last time there were that many scores in Italy was when Gigi Buffon was seen out picking up women in some tiny provincial town like Cittadella after a match during Juve’s spell in Serie B (ba-dum-cha!). Speaking of Juventus, after a roaring start that saw them go up 3-0 on Siena within 45 seconds (it was really 10 minutes), the Old Lady decided to roll over and die, as Siena came back and scored 3 of their own to cause the match to end 3-3. Newly appointed Juventus head coach Alberto Zaccheroni was seen shortly after the match crying in the fetal position in the dressing room shower while Gianni Agnelli’s ghost beat him over the head with an umbrella saying “vafanculo”. Inter Milan’s travel agent was fired this weekend after he mistakenly booked airfare for their youth squad to go play Catania Calcio (current league position: 15th), which led to Catania beating Inter 3-1. This blows the Serie A title race absolutely wide open, as AC Milan now finds themselves only 1 point out of 1st place after a 90th minute Clarence Seedorf goal gave them the full 3 points over Chievo Verona. AS Roma also continues to lurk in 3rd, only 6 points out of first. Genoa and Cagliari played to an 8 goal thriller that ended Genoa 5-3 Cagliari, and saw 7 goals scored in about 25 minutes. Given the Italian style of play, the scoreboard didn’t have room to fit 8 goal-scorers, so they ended up paying some Italian guy to hold up signs indicating the scorers for goals 2-8 (they’d never seen a multi-goal match before). In Holland, Ajax Amsterdam massively outclassed PSV Eindhoven in a battle of Dutch heavyweights (which is equivalent to a battle of English Welterweights at best), as they won 3-1 in Amsterdam ArenA. Twente won again to go 5 up on PSV at the top of the table. In France 2/3 of this weekend’s matches were cancelled due to fan indifference. The fortunate few matches that did happen included Bordeaux’s 0-0 draw vs. Monaco which saw Lille move to within 2 points of the top. The 2nd and 3rd place teams, Montpelier and AJ Auxerre, respectively, drew to a 1-1 draw, preventing each other from leapfrogging Bordeaux. A very quick Bundesliga roundup: Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, and Schalke 04 all won. Munich’s win involved a brace by Arjen Robben in the last 15 minutes to give them the 2-1 win over 17th place FC Freiburg. The three clubs now sit 1-2-3, with Bayern Munich in 1st with 56, Schalke in 2nd with 54, and Leverkusen in 3rd with 53. In the coming week, watch for the 2nd round of CL round of 16 legs, with the obvious crown-jewel of those matches being the massively hyped Chelsea-Inter Milan match. Inter won round 1 at the San Siro 2-1, but Chelsea has stated their confidence in their abilities to pull off the minor upset. Thanks for reading this far, and if you have, odds are you’re currently questioning my sanity.

I’ve questioned his insanity for a couple years now—this only confirms my suspicions. In any event, here are the rankings:

Rank Team Country Points

1. Barcelona (Esp) 50
2. Chelsea (Eng) 47
3. Manchester United (Eng) 46
4. Real Madrid (Esp) 45
5. Arsenal (Eng) 40
6. Inter Milan (Ita) 39
7. AC Milan (Ita) 36
8. Bayern Munich (Ger) 34
9. Bordeaux (Fra) 32
10. Tottenham Hotspur (Eng) 30
11. Bayer Leverkusen (Ger) 29
T12. Schalke 04 (Ger) 26
T12. Valencia (Esp) 26
14. Manchester City (Eng) 25
T15. Benfica (Por) 21
T15. Twente Enschede (Ned) 21
17. Aston Villa (Eng) 20
18. AS Roma (Ita) 15
19. Ajax Amsterdam (Ned) 13
T20.Braga (Por) 11
T20.Montpellier (Fra) 11
22. Lyon (Fra) 10
T23. Fiorentina (Ita) 5
T23. Marseille (Fra) 5
25. Sevilla (Esp) 4

Also Receiving Votes: Juventus (Ita) 3, Panathinaikos (Gre) 3, Hamburg SV (Ger) 2, FC Porto (Por) 1

And here is how the voters voted:

RankTomBlaine
1BarcelonaBarcelona
2Manchester United
Chelsea
3ChelseaReal Madrid
4Real Madrid
Manchester United
5ArsenalInter Milan
6Bayern Munich
Bordeaux
7AC MilanArsenal
8Inter Milan
Valencia
9Schalke 04
AC Milan
10Bayer Leverkusen
Tottenham Hotspur
11BenficaTwente Enschede
12Tottenham Hotspur
Bayern Munich
13Manchester City
Bayer Leverkusen
14BordeauxManchester City
15MontpellierAjax Amsterdam
16Aston Villa
Aston Villa
17LyonSchalke 04
18ValenciaAS Roma
19AS Roma
Braga
20Twente Enschede
Benfica
21MarseilleFiorentina
22BragaSevilla
23PanathinaikosJuventus
24Ajax Amsterdam
Hamburg SV
25FC Porto
Lyon



Next five in for Tom, in alphabetical order: Anderlecht (Bel), Liverpool (Eng), Mallorca (Esp), PSV Eindhoven (Ned), Sevilla (Esp)

Next five in for Blaine, in alphabetical order: AJ Auxerre (Fra), Hamburg SV (Ger), Lille (Fra), Liverpool (Eng), Montpellier (Fra)

Monday, March 15, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament Thoughts

An alternative title to this blog entry would be “Why my calculator picked Washington, Wofford, and UTEP to the Sweet Sixteen and why you should believe it,” but that seemed a bit too wordy. In any event I can’t pretend that my personal picks are any more interesting or accurate than what my calculator thinks, so for the most part I’ll focus on what it thinks rather than what I think.

Before we get any farther, an explanation is in order. In 2006 I was taking a Statistics class in high school and we had an assignment for the NCAA Tournament: Devise a formula to predict winners for the NCAA Tournament games and use it to pick a bracket. I made up a formula taking into account only seed and record (the actual formula will remain a secret), and it did awfully well. And when I say awfully well, I mean it picked George Mason to make the Final Four. No big deal. It also picked other upsets such as Northwestern State, Bradley (I think even to the Sweet Sixteen), and UW-Milwaukee, not to mention getting the entire Final Four correct except for Florida (I had Boston College going on to win the whole thing). In the words of my legendary teacher J.B. Hanson, “You could have made a heck of a lot of money if you knew where to put it.” Obviously I chalk my success up to pure skill and my calculator knowing what it’s talking about, not just luck or anything.

Basically I input the formula which determines the probability that the favorite will win, and my calculator chooses the winner based on that probability. For instance, my calculator says Purdue has a 77.0% chance of defeating Siena, so 77% of the time it will give me a 1 (Purdue win) and 23% of the time it will give me a 0 (Siena win). My calculator fails to recognize that Robbie Hummel tore his ACL, or still refuses to believe it so that is not taken into account here. So this season I repeated the method and got some more interesting results:

-North Texas over Kansas St. in what will be the 5th time ever a 15 seed wins its first round game.
-Houston over Maryland and San Diego State over Tennessee in the Midwest.
-Washington, Cornell, Wofford, and Montana all win their first round games in the East Region, in what I have to imagine will be the first time ever the 11, 12, 13, and 14 seeds all win in one region. This leads to the Wofford and Washington Sweet Sixteen picks. Washington will go on to beat Clemson there, while Wofford’s Cinderella story is ended by Kentucky, who will beat Washington to make the Final Four.
-Kansas, Syracuse and Villanova join Kentucky in the Final Four in what turns out to be a vanilla ending to a flavorful bracket.
-Villanova defeats Kansas in the final despite only having a 29.2% chance to win that game.

In all honesty this method does lead to some interesting brackets. Unfortunately it gives you the 11/12/13/14 upsets and George Mason to the Final Four every so often but those are picks that nobody in their right mind would pick themselves, and the beauty of the NCAA Tournament is that anything can happen.

As for my own picks, I have Minnesota, Washington, and Cornell as my big first round upsets. Brigham Young over Kansas State, Minnesota over Pittsburgh, and Louisville over Duke comprise my second round upsets. I take Butler over Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen and Butler, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Baylor to make the Final Four, with Kentucky outscoring Evan Turner 80-75 in the final. Kentucky will also beat Ohio State as a team by the same score to bring home the title.