Saturday, March 20, 2010

AL Central Preview

The baseball preview continues, moving from the West to the Central as I take a look at the AL Central for the 2010 season. As a reminder the teams appear in order of expected finish looking at a key addition, key player, and player to watch.

Chicago White Sox

Same Face, New Place: Juan Pierre. When the White Sox acquired Pierre, I'll admit I was mixed on this move. The more I think about it, the more I love it and that's because he's had two seasons where he essentially didn't play so his legs are well rested. He also brings the ability to bunt, something Ozzie Guillen loves to do but hasn't been able to with his teams recently. He's going to be asked to set the table and cause chaos for the pitchers similar to what Scott Podsednik did for the Sox in 2005. Ozzie plans to run this team all over the base paths and acquiring Pierre will help Ozzie run the team the way he wants to.

Key Player: Alex Rios. Rios was acquired off waivers during last season and to put it nicely, struggled with the White Sox. He hit .199, with a .229 OBP, and an OPS of .530 (alright he was just flat out awful). Reports are that he's much more comfortable in the clubhouse now and has rediscovered his swing that made him an all-star in Toronto. The Sox lack that prototypical power hitter right now and that means the pressure will be put on Rios and Carlos Quentin to rebound from poor 2009's. The one bright spot for Rios last year is that he stole 24 bases between Toronto and Chicago, so if he can rediscover his swing and pair it with his base stealing he'll be a real weapon for the Sox this season.

Player to Watch: Gordon Beckham. For the first time in a while this is the first year where the Sox don't have a young prospect coming up with a few question marks surrounding him. So with that I have to default to Beckham who should continue to build on his impressive rookie season. It's important to see how he handles all the expectations being thrown on him and he didn't hit as well at U.S. Cellular Field as he did on the road and he needs to learn to use the home ballpark to his advantage.

Final Verdict: The strength of the White Sox rests in the arms of the pitching staff. Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy front a staff that could be the best in baseball by the end of the season. Bobby Jenks should be stable at the end of the bullpen and J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton should be excellent options to shorten a game for Ozzie Guillen. The offense is where the questions are for this team, but if Andruw Jones continues to hit like he is in Spring Training, the DH-rotation might be a better idea than many are giving Guillen credit for. What seems to be a bigger issue every day is the relationship of Guillen and Kenny Williams, they should realize to put aside any differences that they may have and focus on the job at hand, and if they do that this team could be very dangerous this season.

Minnesota Twins

Same Face, New Place: Orlando Hudson. When the Twins signed Hudson, I was both angry and surprised. Surprised because the Twins were opening the checkbook to sign some serious talent. I was angry because Hudson is such a good player and will help this team out in many ways. Hudson is a gold glove defender and a great #2 hitter who will fit Ron Gardenhire's style of baseball. Hudson will also provide a great role model for someone like Delmon Young who shows his immaturity at times.
Key Player: The Closer Role. I don't have a specific name for this slot because no one including myself knows who is going to close for the Twins yet. If Joe Nathan is able to pitch through the pain that he has in his arm, the question becomes how effective will he be while hurt? If he can't pitch then a position that has been held down by Nathan, becomes someone's that hasn't closed games before or may not be as effective. Nathan was such a big security blanket for Gardenhire, as every time he came into the game it was pretty much over. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins look to trade for an established closer when the trade deadline looms and could be a major reason why the Twins don't win the division.

Player to Watch: Brian Duensing. On paper, the Twins rotation doesn't seem all that intimidating, but when you watch these guys pitch, they're effective. The same could be said about Duensing, another guy the Twins have developed. He started nine games last season and had a 3.64 ERA, pretty impressive for a guy in his rookie year. If he can build on that success he'll be a very good #5 starter for the Twins.

Final Verdict: The Twins open up Target Field this season and the biggest question for the Twins is how will the Twins handle the new stadium environment. Offensively, the Twins will be their usual aggressive selves and play fundamental baseball, which is always exciting to watch and as the Twins have shown is how you win ballgames. Pitching is a concern with the Twins, The staff lacks that typical dominant ace that many staffs have, but that has not been a problem for the Twins in recent years. The real problem will come from the bullpen if Nathan misses the season. Forcing the relievers to move up a slot is usually a sign of disaster, but knowing the Twins, pitching coach, Rick Anderson will find the man for the job and he'll end up saving 30-40 games and keep the Twins competitive for the 2010 season.

Detroit Tigers

Same Face, New Place: Johnny Damon. Damon was involved in quite the free agent process this offseason and the Tigers are the ones that eventually paid Damon the amount he wanted. If Damon can hit with the same power that he had last year, he'll help the Tigers out immensely. He'll also likely silence the critics that said he benefited from the short fence at Yankee Stadium last year, namely the Yankees front office.

Key Player: Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez' power numbers took a major hit in 2009, going from 21 home runs to 9 and 103 RBI to 50. The Tigers are likely going to look for those numbers to go back up, unfortunately for them, those numbers seem to be in decline. The bright spot for Ordonez is his AVG and OBP have been increasing since his time with the Tigers started. He posted a .310 AVG and a .376 OBP last season. If Jim Leyland recognizes that the power may be gone from Ordonez' bat, a move up or down the order might be the right move for Maggs and will allow the Tigers to get more men on base and generate some more runs.

Player to Watch: Austin Jackson. Jackson came to the Tigers from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson trade and many people compare Jackson to Granderson. That's something the Tigers hope since he'll be replacing Granderson in centerfield this season. Jackson has shown the ability to hit for a high average and steal some bases while in the minors. It'll be a nice sight for Miguel Cabrera if Jackson is on base a lot and he should provide a spark at the top of the lineup for the Tigers.

Final Verdict: The Tigers made some moves this off-season that many people liked, I however am not that positive on the moves. Trading Edwin Jackson really hurt their rotation; getting Max Scherzer is risky because although he has great potential he hasn't been able to control his pitches in the majors yet. Trading Jackson also forced Rick Porcello to assume the #2 spot in the rotation, a large task for someone only in his 2nd year of baseball. The bullpen should be one of the best in the AL Central providing Leyland many options at the end of games. The offense, like the rest of the AL Central really doesn't pack that much of a punch outside of Cabrera. There are still a lot of athletes in that lineup and it will be the reason they are in the race at the end of the season.

Kansas City Royals

Same Face, New Place: The 2009 Chicago White Sox. The Royals will be going into 2010 with at least three (possibly four) members of the White Sox from a season ago. Scott Podsednik, Chris Getz, and Josh Fields will all be on the Royals this season and Brian Anderson has an outside chance at making the roster. The White Sox clearly did not bring these players back for some reason, and it could be because they didn't win with them. The Royals are looking to cash in on the unwanted White Sox and Podsednik and Getz could be valuable pieces for them in 2010. Podsednik hit for a .303 AVG and stole 30 bases last season, if he can improve his on-base percentage he'll be a real problem for opposing pitchers at the top of the lineup.

Key Player & Player to Watch: Luke Hochevar. Hochevar had an interesting 2009 campaign, in nine starts he allowed at least six earned runs and in eight outings he held opposing offenses to only two earned runs. If the Royals want to think about competing he'll have to be more consistent. A sign that consistency may be on the horizon for Hochevar is that he improved both his K/9 and BB/9 rates and is improving his groundouts to flyouts ratio. He's my pick to also break out in a big way this season for the Royals.


[Side Note: I was going to go with Alex Gordon as my player to watch, but his broken thumb is a cause for concern as Josh Fields may make the most of his opportunity to start.]

Final Verdict: The fourth place finish is actually better than what it seems. I actually see them competing with the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers this season and making the AL Central a 4-team race all summer. There is no doubt that the biggest question for the Royals is the pitching staff but there is potential there to breakout. The bullpen lacks a little depth behind Joakim Soria but Farnsworth and Cruz should be a formidable duo for Trey Hillman to use. To me the strength of this team is going to be the offense behind Billy Butler and David DeJesus and I think Rick Ankiel bounces back from a bad 2009. They probably won't win the division but the Royals are definitely improving.

Cleveland Indians

Same Face, New Place: Russell Branyan. Branyan is back with the Indians after an impressive 2009 season with the Seattle Mariners where he hit 31 home runs. Branyan will be in a lineup that will likely mash a lot of home runs this season so he'll be asked to do more of the same, but he needs to improve his average and on-base percentage so the Indians have more guys on base when those home runs leave the park.

Key Players: Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona. Westbrook is coming back from Tommy John Surgery and is slated as the Opening Day starter for the Indians. If he can find his 2004-2006 form where he won 14 games and then 15 games the next two seasons then the Indians will be thrilled and he'll likely win comeback player of the year. Carmona is coming off a forgettable 2009 season where he won only 5 games and had an ERA over 6. The Indians will need him to rediscover his 2007 form and that'll only come if he regains control over his pitches.

Player to Watch: Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was the highly touted prospect that the Indians received in the CC Sabathia trade and since then LaPorta hasn't really been given a chance to prove himself. LaPorta is currently in-between positions, manager Manny Acta would like him to play mostly at 1B while GM Mark Shapiro would rather see him in Left Field. Wherever LaPorta winds up, he'll finally get a full season to prove himself and I think he's going to show some people why the Indians are trying to find a position for him to play full-time.

Final Verdict: Unfortunately for the Indians they have quite a few questions for the 2010 season. The pitching staff has holes from the rotation to the bullpen. Kerry Wood can't be trusted to close games consistently and the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. The offense will win some games for the Tribe with Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo leading the way. It could be a long season for Indians fans, but I don't think it'll be as bad as it was for the Indians teams in Major League.

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