Is Matt Cain Really That Unlucky?

Well for a couple of years now, I have sat here and listened to Blaine complain about Matt Cain’s run support. It has been fairly well documented that he somehow manages to get virtually no run support ever. In 2007, he got an average run support of 3.16 runs per game, good for last in the league, while the Giants scored 4.48 runs per game when Cain did not pitch. In 2008, Cain got an average run support of 3.18 runs per game, again good for last in the league, while the Giants scored 4.15 runs per game when he did not pitch. It may interest some to know whether or not this difference is due to random chance or if it is statistically significant. To figure this out, we will perform a t-test for difference in means. Pretty much what this does is take two samples of data (runs per game when Cain pitches and runs per game when Cain does not pitch) and it sees if there is a statistically significant difference in the runs scored per game between the two categories.

Skipping the statistical mumbo-jumbo, it is quickly found that the difference is, unsurprisingly, statistically significant. In 2007 we obtain a p-value of 0.0129 and in 2008 the p-value is 0.0190. Essentially, a p-value of 0.0129 means that there is only a 1.129% chance that a difference in means that large is due to random chance alone. The fact that for two straight years there was a p-value that low means that something else is amiss here. Whether it is Cain’s notoriously bad hitting (11 hits the past two years), terrible luck, or the other Giants players simply not wanting to score runs for Cain, the Giants really do score significantly less runs when he is on the mound. It will be interesting to see if he can reverse that trend this year.

I would also like to say that I wish Major League Baseball had more fans like the fans we see at some World Baseball Classic games. I am currently watching the Korea-Japan game and it is amazing to see the Korean and Japanese fans constantly making noise with thundersticks, waving flags, and chanting and singing throughout the game. This is similar to the atmosphere you often see at soccer matches, especially abroad. It would be really cool if there could be even just one section at every major league park that would be like this. I know that it would most likely never happen due to logistical issues, but the atmosphere that these fans bring to games is undeniable.

And for some world sports notes:
-Jo Jackson set a world record in the women’s 400-meter freestyle swim at the British swimming championships on Monday with a time of 4:00.66.
-Twenty teams will compete in the 2009 Tour de France, with a total of 180 riders. The Tour starts July 4 in Monaco.
-After recovering from a boating accident, double-amputee sprinter Oscar Pistorius will compete at the Paralympic World Cup in Manchester in the 100-meter and 400-meter sprints. Pistorius won three gold medals at the Paralympic Games in Beijing last year, after nearly qualifying for the Olympic Games in the 400-meter dash.
-The Oregon Ducks won the NCAA Men’s Indoor Track and Field Championships with 54 points beating second-place Florida, who finished with 36 points. Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford won the 60-meter dash with a time of 6.52 seconds. On the women’s side, Tennessee came in first with 42 points over second-place Texas A&M, who had 37 points.

Interesting baseball fact of the day: Of Matt Cain’s 20 career hits, 17 have come when his team is ahead, 2 in a tie game, and just 1 when his team is behind. I find this pretty amazing.