Does a Hot (or Cold) Start affect the rest of the season?

Today I was asked what kind of effect winning an Opening Day game has on the rest of a team’s season. With Opening Day coming up, I thought it would be appropriate to answer that question here. I will also look at what effect success in the first 3 and 7 games of the year has on the rest of the season. The data is taken from 2008.

First, we have Opening Day. Here is the graph:


There is really no significant difference in wins for the season based on whether or not you win your Opening Day game. Actually, teams who won their opener had an average of 79.6 wins on the year, and teams who lost their opener had an average of 82.3 wins on the year. Interestingly enough, the team with the most wins in the AL (Angels) and the team with the most wins in the NL (Cubs) both lost their opener while the worst three teams in the league (Nationals, Mariners, Padres) all won their opener. As it turns out, Opening Day is just another game in a long season.

Then we can look at how teams fared in their first three games:


Still, there appears to be no real pattern. Teams who won one of their first three won an average of 82.76 on the season, teams who won two of their first three won 81.71 on the season, and only the Royals (74) and Nationals (59) won their first three games of the year. Detroit (74) was the only team to lose their first three. Again, there is no apparent relation between wins in the first three games of the season and total wins.

Finally, we look at the first seven games of the season:


We do see a very slight pattern in this data, but still nothing significant. In order from zero to six wins of their first seven, teams won an average of 74, 72, 73.67, 81.27, 84.62, 83, 79 games on the year. It appears that performance in the very early stages of the season does not determine how good or bad you will do during the rest of the year.

In MLB news today, the Cubs named Kevin Gregg as the Cubs closer for the upcoming season. Gregg has had a spotless spring, giving up no runs in 8.1 innings, and has 61 saves in the past two years. Marmol missed time to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, but has dominated in the setup role the past two years, with a 2.13 ERA over the past two seasons. Marmol appears to be the closer of the future, and there is probably no need to rush him into that role, as Gregg has experience as closer.

Interesting baseball fact of the day: The longest losing streak to start a season is 21 games by the Baltimore Orioles in 1988 (54 wins on the year). The longest winning streak to start a season is 13 games, accomplished by the 1982 Atlanta Braves (89, lost in NLCS) and 1987 Milwaukee Brewers (91, 3rd in division).