Early Season Projections

We are a little over a month through this baseball season, and it is a good time to look at some interesting statistics and see what would happen if players kept up these paces.

Home Run Leaders: Albert Pujols and Carlos Pena both have 13 homers to lead their respective leagues. If they keep up this pace, Pujols will end with 65 HR and Pena with 63 (by virtue having played one more game than Pujols). These would easily be career highs for both, as neither has hit over 50 HR in a season. Pujols would finish with 171 RBI, the most since 1938.

Evan Longoria: Longoria, who is hitting .362/.417/.748 with 11 HR, 16 2B, and 45 RBI, would finish with 55 HR, 80 2B, and an absolutely incredible 225 RBI. This would shatter the current RBI record of 191 by Hack Wilson. The most RBI in one season since 1938 is 165 by Manny Ramirez in 1999. The 160 barrier has only been broken twice since WWII. The 80 2B would shatter the record of most doubles in a season, which is now 67, set by Earl Webb in 1931.

Batting Averages: Kevin Youkilis is currently hitting .393, which would be the second highest batting average since Ted Williams last eclipsed .400 in 1941. Tony Gwynn hit .394 in 1994.

Starting Pitching: Zack Greinke, the biggest surprise of the year on the mound, is on pace to go 29-5, 0.51 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 253 IP, 281 K, 38 BB. Roy Halladay is on pace to go 32-5 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 282 IP, 227 K, 32 BB. Needless to say, Greinke's ERA would be the lowest of all time, and the WHIP would be the third highest since 1900, after Pedro Martinez had a 0.74 WHIP in 2000 and Walter Johnson's 0.78 WHIP in 1913. His strikeout total would be the highest non-Randy Johnson total since 2001. Halladay's win total of 32 would be the most since Pete Alexander won 32 games in 1916.

The Stolen Base: In the AL, there are 1.45 stolen bases per game, up from 1.16 in 2008, good for a 25% increase. In the NL, the number is 1.17 stolen bases per game, only a 0.025 stolen bases per game increase from 2008. Still, it is said that this is the year of the stolen base. Carl Crawford has 22 SB in 34 games, putting him on pace for 105 SB, and he has still not been caught at all. This would be the highest total since Vince Coleman's 109 in 1987, which was also the last time a player stole over 100 bases. The highest stolen base total since 1990 was Marquis Grissom's 78 steals in 1992, which was matched by Jose Reyes in 2007.

Striking out at the plate: Chris Davis has an astounding 50 strikeouts in only 108 at bats this season. This puts him on pace to strike out 260 times this season, which is by far the most all time. Currently, Mark Reynolds is the leader in this category with 204 K last year, the only player to ever get over 200 K in one season. Incidentally, Ryan Howard has struck out 199 times in a season twice, in 2007 and 2008. Davis has struck out in 46.3% of his at bats this season. To break the record, he would have to strike out in about 34% of his remaining at bats. Still, a 34% strikeout rate still comes out to 190 K in a season, so Davis has some work to do.

Interesting Fact of the Day: Since 1954, only two players have ever gone 5-5 in a game, with all 5 of those hits being extra-base hits. Those are Steve Garvey on August 28, 1977 (3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI) and Joe Adcock on July 31, 1954 (1 2B, 4 HR, 7 RBI).