Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Big Ten Tournament Preview (Baseball)

Today begins the Big Ten Tournament for baseball. All games will be shown on Big Ten Network and the action has already started with the Illinois-Michigan State game (6-4 Illinois, bottom of the 4th), and continues later when rivals Purdue and Indiana square off at 2:30 CT. It is one of the weirdest brackets of a tournament you can have, as it is six teams and double elimination, but it can be found here. While the Big Ten is by no means a baseball conference and will likely only get a couple teams at most to the NCAA tournament, the tournament is still deserving of a preview.

#1 Ohio State (39-15, 18-6)
The de facto hosts of the tournament, as it is being played at a minor league park in Columbus. The Buckeyes are ranked #23 in the country and come into the tournament off of a three-game sweep of lowly Iowa. Ohio State is led by starting pitcher Alex Wimmers, who is 9-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 94.1 IP. Wimmers threw a no-hitter against Michigan on May 2, helping dash Michigan's hopes at making the BTT this season. They have Jake Hale coming out of the bullpen, with an astounding 1.19 ERA in 45.1 IP, and hitters have a .175 average against him. As a team, Ohio State hits .329/.397/.505, led by Ryan Dew, who has a .395 average with an OBP of .441. These three players along with catcher Dan Burkhart (.362/.435/.611 with 9 HR and 57 RBI) were all chosen to be on the All-Big Ten first team. Burkhart was picked to be the Player of the Year and Alex Wimmers was co-Pitcher of the Year.

#2 Minnesota (35-15, 17-6)
Something of a surprise this year, as Minnesota finished 20-35 last year while finishing 9th in the 10-team baseball conference. Minnesota has a solid rotation of Tom Buske (8-3, 3.40 ERA), Chauncy Handran (7-2, 3.81), and Seth Rosen (6-1, 4.02). They are also a solid team at the plate, where they hit .316 as a team, led by All-Big Ten first team selection Derek McCallum, who hit .401 with 15 HR and 72 RBI in 50 games this year. Minnesota also has a star receiver from their football team, Eric Decker, roaming center field.

#3 Indiana (28-25, 16-7)
Indiana hit their stride in the Big Ten season, after early losses to teams such as Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Indiana State, Jacksonville State, Northern Iowa, Stetson (you get the idea). Indiana is led by star pitcher Eric Arnett (who you can read about here, who was a unanimous All-Big Ten first team selection after going 11-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 12 starts this season. Their other first team selections were outfielder Kipp Schutz, who hit .368/.429/.516, and catcher Josh Phegley, who hit .354/.470/.672 with 17 HR and 62 RBI. Indiana is very much a hitting-oriented team after Eric Arnett, as they have a .322 team average with 59 HR and a 5.32 team ERA, with teams hitting .289 against them.

#4 Illinois (33-18, 16-8)
Illinois had a chance to get the number one seed in this tournament up until the final weekend, when they lost two of three at Purdue. Illinois is led at the plate by two All-Big Ten first team selections, shortstop Brandon Wikoff and third baseman Dominic Altobelli. Wikoff hit .375/.432/.551 with 10 SB, and Altobelli hit .379/.450/.597 with 8 HR and 52 RBI. Like most Big Ten teams, they have weak pitching, with a team ERA of 5.16. However they do have a strong freshman pitcher, Will Strack, who was selected to the All Big Ten freshman team with a record of 6-0 and a 3.48 ERA in 8 starts.

#5 Michigan State (23-29, 13-11)
Michigan State had zero first, second, or third team All Big Ten selections, a testament to the even play of the entire team. They really have nobody who is very good or very bad, and they are much like Indiana in that up until the Big Ten season, they were not playing so well, with a 10-19 pre-Big Ten record. Catcher Eric Roof leads the way at the plate with his .339 average, and he hit a grand slam early in the first game of the tournament against Illinois. Freshman pitcher Tony Bucciferro had an impressive season, going 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 starts. The pitching staff as a whole has a 4.97 ERA, not bad for a Big Ten team, but they only have a .284 team average.

#6 Purdue (24-24, 11-12)
Purdue barely made the Big Ten Tournament, winning two of three against Illinois in the final weekend to squeak by Michigan, who had an extremely disappointing year. Still, they made the show, and they are able to be a dark horse in the tournament. Purdue has three regulars who hit over .390, led by unanimous all Big Ten selection Brandon Haveman, who hit .412/.457/.600 with 16 doubles, while maintaining a .984 fielding percentage in the outfield. First baseman John Cummins hit .404 this season and freshman second baseman Eric Charles hit .390 this year as both were selected to the third team All-Big Ten. Purdue also has catcher/first baseman/third baseman Dan Black, who was walked an astounding 59 times this year, making for a .510 OBP when his average was only .303, and he hit 14 HR. He should be drafted in the sixth to eighth round in the upcoming MLB draft. While Purdue has terrible pitching overall, it improved late in the season, led by senior Matt Bischoff, who went 3-3 with a 4.83 ERA in conference play.

The Verdict
This Big Ten Tournament is effectively wide-open. Four teams were in contention for the top spot going into the final weekend of the season, and the other two teams have the ability to make an impact. I predict an Ohio State-Indiana final, and if we are lucky we will see an Alex Wimmers-Eric Arnett matchup to decide everything. I pick Ohio State to come out on top. I don't think Minnesota will do all that well as they have somewhat over-achieved this year, and I see Purdue continuing their strong play as of late to reach the semifinals. Last year they made it to the finals, bowing out to a strong Michigan team, and this year, the Boilermakers took two of three from Indiana and hit Arnett fairly well, and while they got swept by Ohio State, every game was close. Don't count out those Boilermakers!

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