The Next 300 Game Winner?

Congratulations are in order for Randy Johnson for winning his 300th game today and on his first try as well. Media persons are under the impression that we will never see a 300 game winner again in baseball but the reality is while there are no more 4 man rotations, pitchers are able to pitch longer into their 40’s thanks to the 5th man in a rotation and the advances in medicine (no not steroids). So giving a player an extra year or so of pitching effectively gives them as good of a chance to get 300 wins and join elite company. I took a look at the active wins leaders in baseball right now and there are a few guys down the roads of their respective careers who can come close to compiling 300 wins, let’s take a look:

Mark Buehrle, age 30, 128 wins
Now I’ll admit when I saw Buehrle this high up the active list I was a little shocked but it is not far fetched given his age that he will be able to get to 300. He is cut from the Greg Maddux mold where he is not a hard thrower and relies on smarts to get batters out. Not throwing hard will save his arm and he has to average between 13 and 14 wins a season for the next 12 years to get to 300 exactly which is not out of reach for him.

Will he do it? My opinion is he will not reach it due to the fact that this offseason there were rumors circulating that Buehrle is debating retiring after his current contract expires. When a guy at the age of 30 is already considering retiring, chances are he will not be pitching into his early to mid 40’s. As a Sox fan it is depressing to see he has a shot but will probably not get to it.

CC Sabathia, age 28, 122 wins
Sabathia will be one of the pitchers most people will guess to reach 300 wins next; he’s young at 28 years of age and has compiled a lot of wins in his career. If he pitches until he is 42 he has to average 12.21 wins the rest of his career to make it to 300. He is a pitcher who has been very good and may have more to show still as he enters his prime.

Will he do it? I believe he has the best shot of any pitcher; he has been healthy throughout his career, which is a good sign that he will be able to pitch into his 40’s and there really aren’t any signs that point to a decrease in performance anytime soon. If he were not to make it to 300 one possible reason would be due to being overworked, last season he pitched 252 innings including 10 complete games and at a relative young age all that work may not be good for his future.

Johan Santana, age 30, 116 wins
Santana has been one of the most, if not the most dominate pitcher over the last 4 soon to be 5 years and has racked up many wins during that time frame. He has the ability to just dominate any lineup that he faces on any given night, which is a big boost for his chances for reaching 300. The unfortunate part for Santana is that it took him 4 years to get to where he’s at now which took valuable wins away from him. What this means is he’ll have to average 15 wins for the next 12 years to get to 300, which is the most wins per year out of the three guys listed so far.

Will he do it? My initial thought is yes. I believe he can stay this good for that long as long as he remains in the National League and gets the benefit of pitching against the opposing pitcher every start. He could be very much like Randy Johnson and just start to dominate as he goes through his 30’s, which is another reason I think he’s capable of winning 300 games.

Wild Card: Carlos Zambrano, age 28, 99 wins
Zambrano benefits from being called up to the majors at a very young age where he could compile wins very early. He literally just turned 28 a few days ago as Blaine pointed out to me. What he has going against him is his emotions, the more “emotional” Zambrano gets the more starts will get taken away from him which will hurt his shot. If he can avoid being suspended and pitch until he is 42 he will have to average just more than 14 wins per season, which he is completely capable of doing as long as he isn’t suspended.

Will he do it? My gut reaction says no. This is solely based on me not believing Zambrano can control his emotions and add suspensions into possible injuries he just won’t be able to get enough starts to get the opportunity to win 300 games, although he will certainly be able to pitch until he is 45 because he is such a workhorse.